M1 Mac Mini or wait for M1X 2021

[exsiccation]

I'm looking at potentially making the switch from Windows to Mac (at least for my personal computing - work and gaming is still Windows for obvious reasons), and I'm considering getting my feet wet with one of the new Mac Mini models.

By most accounts, the M1 Mac Mini is a fantastic and highly affordable way to get started with a Mac for the first time. I save money on peripherals and monitors (I've already got all that), and I have limited needs for a laptop upgrade right now, so it makes sense for me to go that route.

But I'm wondering if it makes sense to jump on the M1 Mac Mini or hold on until the rumored M1X 2021 model (or a later M2 2022 version). In particular, the following factors make me kind of hesitant:

1. Long term viability of hardware. While the M1 performs great right now, it's mostly a result of running past-gen software designed for Intel Macs, or Apple's in-house apps. While I trust Apple to deliver a consistently great experience, will the CPU/GPU situation with third parties be to the same level, or will it get long in the tooth as developers ride the wave of huge performance uplifts year-over-year?
2. Dated design. Rumor has it that the upcoming 2021 Mac Mini (if it happens) will have a redesigned chassis that's smaller and more compact. I don't have anything against the way the Mac Mini looks now, but if we're talking about Apple doing a serious aesthetic refresh for its MacBooks, the future Mac Minis won't be far behind. That may also extend to broader hardware support, ports, etc. as well.
3. Lack of long-term support and upgradability. This is entirely speculation, but being a first-gen product on a "dated" platform has me worried that Apple might not prioritize supporting these systems for their usual 5+ years. Even if things "technically" stay supported, will Apple treat these systems as first-class citizens or more of a beta test for the later gens? Will we see newer versions of MacOS drop support for the M1 systems faster, or more difficulty with repairs and replacements?
4. General cold feet around upgrade cycles. I have a hard time pulling the trigger on new hardware in general because it feels like the rumor mill starts talking about the next big thing and how much better it will be the second you've bought something new. It makes it really hard to take the plunge. How can I know "this is the one to buy" vs. waiting for a few more months?

More broadly, how has the reliability of M1 Macs been? While the initial reception was really positive, I've read about potential issues with excessive SSD writes that seems like it could be a major issue down the road.

It's worth pointing out that while I'm an Apple user, I've mostly just derped around with iPads and haven't gone hardcore into the ecosystem. I entirely admit that these could be issues that live more in my head rather than in real life, but of course I also know Apple isn't immune from gaffes and off-years (keyboard switches, antennagate, etc.).

Basically I'm looking for guidance from more experienced users - is now the time, or will I be happier holding off for what's coming next?

 

[MarkC426]

There is no guarantee of a new mini release this year.
Rumors are rumors, you could wait 2-3 months and still be waiting (or maybe not).
It may not come till 2022.

If you need it now, then pull the trigger.
You can make a good saving on the refurb store.

I would go for 16gb ram and highest storage you can afford, due to lack of upgrade ability.
A lot of excessive writes have been due to low physical ram.

Also to note no egpu support, max 2 displays.

 

[Apple_Robert]

If the rumors are true, there is no drastic redesign with the Mac mini, even though it is rumored to be a little smaller.

Given that you don't own any Macs, what is truly gained by you waiting? Apple supports Macs for 7 years or so.

If something new is released in 6 months to a year, that won't make the current Mac minis any less powerful or capable, nor will it make them obsolete.

If you want a mini, get one. Test it for 2 weeks. If you don't like it, return it for a refund. Trying to ride the tech wave to get the latest and greatest only last a few months. It is a fools errand.

 

[exsiccation]

If you want a mini, get one. Test it for 2 weeks. If you don't like it, return it for a refund. Trying to ride the tech wave to get the latest and greatest only last a few months. It is a fools errand.

This is 100% true and I am definitely aware of how futile it is. But given we're already into July and most Apple products tend to launch around October/November, at this point I feel like I'd be an idiot for not waiting. This being a first-gen product also makes me more hesitant than I might otherwise be. Basically looking for people's thoughts one way or the other, especially those who took the plunge vs. or held off for similar reasons.

 

[Apple_Robert]

This is 100% true and I am definitely aware of how futile it is. But given we're already into July and most Apple products tend to launch around October/November, at this point I feel like I'd be an idiot for not waiting. This being a first-gen product also makes me more hesitant than I might otherwise be. Basically looking for people's thoughts one way or the other, especially those who took the plunge vs. or held off for similar reasons.

If you aren't truly in need, there is no real harm in waiting. Just don't let rumors be the reason you wait, because the current mini is more than capable of handling general usage and more.

 

[Pilot Jones]

You should go for it.

Keep it in good condition, so that even if new Mac Mini does release and you have FOMO, you can simply sell this one and recoup most of the cost to get the new model for a a bit more money.