M1X worst case scenario

[JMacHack]

Given that the hype train for the M1X is full steam, and performance estimates have been high. I think it might be important to temper our expectations.

So as a thought experiment, let’s make a realistic worst-case scenario for the M1X.

1. No ipc or clock speed improvements over the M1.
2. No improvements to number of display outputs
3. Maximum 16GB of memory
4. No improvements in memory speed, uses LPDDR4 still.
5. More P cores, but not a big boost in performance.
6. More graphics cores, but not a huge jump in graphical performance. Maybe 50% above the M1.

Thoughts?

 

[Mikael H]

If it's an M1X and not already an M2x, I expect your point 1 to be at least half-true: No IPC improvements, but we may well see clock speed improvements in larger machines with higher cooling capacity.

Points 2 and 3 are ridiculous from a Pro perspective, and I can't imagine they're true whether or not we get a new chip generation.

Point 4: Likely if talking from an M1X perspective.

Points 5 and 6: Again, if it's an M1X, we shouldn't see an exponential jump in performance but instead a performance increase corresponding to the number of extra cores.

I hope we'll see a bigger M2X chip based on the next iPhone SoC design, but I don't expect it.

 

[goldpin]

As discussed on the “Secret Sauce of Apple Silicon” thread, I do expect an “M2” A15 based design, not an expanded M1. I’ll be shocked if that’s not the case, in fact.

There is no “M1X”.

 

[casperes1996]

As discussed on the “Secret Sauce of Apple Silicon” thread, I do expect an “M2” A15 based design, not an expanded M1. I’ll be shocked if that’s not the case, in fact.

There is no “M1X”.

How much you wanna bet?
Without an X chip what will distinguish a second generation Apple Silicon MacBook Air from a 16" MacBook Pro?

 

[goldpin]

How much you wanna bet?
Without an X chip what will distinguish a second generation Apple Silicon MacBook Air from a 16" MacBook Pro?

This fall’s MacBook Pro machines will have an “M2X” related to the A15 cores, not the A14 related M1. My bet is that we’ll see a 8 performance, 2-4 efficiency core machine with A15 related cores for the MBP. The 2022 MBA gets a smaller M2 that is the successor to the M1 MBA. That sort of progression.

That’s why I don’t think we’ll get an M1X… the expanded core count processor for late 2021 and into 2022 will be A15 not A14 related. I agree I’m guessing at nomenclature, but it seems like a reasonable path. Basically, I think the M1 was a solo product. Later generations get a larger family tree as the rest of the Mac product line gets Apple Silicon.

 

[casperes1996]

This fall’s MacBook Pro machines will have an “M2X” related to the A15 cores, not the A14 related M1. My bet is that we’ll see a 8 performance, 2-4 efficiency core machine with A15 related cores for the MBP. The 2022 MBA gets a smaller M2 that is the successor to the M1 MBA. That sort of progression.

That’s why I don’t think we’ll get an M1X… the expanded core count processor for late 2021 and into 2022 will be A15 not A14 related. I agree I’m guessing at nomenclature, but it seems like a reasonable path. Basically, I think the M1 was a solo product. Later generations get a larger family tree as the rest of the Mac product line gets Apple Silicon.

Oh I see, I thought you were saying there'd be only one "M" Mac chip per generation of A series. Not just that M1X would be and we'd go to M2X. - In that case, I'm not going to bet anything anyway, haha. I still think we'll see an M1X but I wouldn't roll the dice on this one. We're far enough into the year that M2X is a possibility. And heck, I'd gladly take it since I'm planning on getting the 16"

 

[goldpin]

Oh I see, I thought you were saying there'd be only one "M" Mac chip per generation of A series. Not just that M1X would be and we'd go to M2X. - In that case, I'm not going to bet anything anyway, haha. I still think we'll see an M1X but I wouldn't roll the dice on this one. We're far enough into the year that M2X is a possibility. And heck, I'd gladly take it since I'm planning on getting the 16"

Here’s hoping! I’ve got my eye on a Mini replacement and I want a “pro” Mini

 

[thenewperson]

Without an X chip what will distinguish a second generation Apple Silicon MacBook Air from a 16" MacBook Pro?

Number of cores.

 

[hovscorpion12]

I Guarantee you in October Apple will announce the new MacBooks with M1X. 2022 is going to be Apple's biggest year.

2022 will bring
1. Titanium iPhone with flush camera design
2. Apple Silicon Mac Pro
3. 27" iMac
4. iPad Pro update

 

[Kung gu]

This fall’s MacBook Pro machines will have an “M2X” related to the A15 cores, not the A14 related M1. My bet is that we’ll see a 8 performance, 2-4 efficiency core machine with A15 related cores for the MBP. The 2022 MBA gets a smaller M2 that is the successor to the M1 MBA. That sort of progression.

That’s why I don’t think we’ll get an M1X… the expanded core count processor for late 2021 and into 2022 will be A15 not A14 related. I agree I’m guessing at nomenclature, but it seems like a reasonable path. Basically, I think the M1 was a solo product. Later generations get a larger family tree as the rest of the Mac product line gets Apple Silicon.

All rumours point to a M1X chip. It be based on A14 cores, have more P cores and more RAM and storage support.
It will also support more external monitors.

 

[Jorbanead]

I think point 2-3 are the least likely scenarios. Based off of what these chips are rumored to replace, the current 16” pro starts at 16gb ram and has higher display-out capabilities.

It made sense for the M1 to only include 16gb max and 2 total displays as it’s really the bottom of the barrel chip designed for low power, consumer-heavy devices like the MacBook Air and Mac mini.

I think it’s smart to tamper expectations on performance though. I prefer to be surprised rather than disappointed on this front.

 

[tommiy]

or how about it still only supports a single external display....Pro machines with 1 display ;(

 

[ian87w]

This was from Apple's keynote. The M1X will probably be designed for higher TDP than the regular M1. Even assuming everything is the "same" as the M1, you can just extrapolate the performance on higher TDP. The M1 currently is already head to head with the top laptop CPUs from intel and AMD at much lower power consumption.

This is what's so exciting about Apple Silicon. We'll see how the hype is realized.

 

[casperes1996]

Number of cores.

Number of cores is kinda how we define an "X" chip

 

[leman]

Great idea!

IMO, looking at how Apple approaches these things, the "worst case" M1X would use the same architecture as M1 but double the resources. That is:

- double the P-clusters to 8 cores (with same single-threaded performance and double the multi-threaded performance)
- double the memory interface while using the same LPDDR4X (would double the bandwidth and the max capacity)
- double the GPU cluster (would double the performance)
- double the cache to compensate for increased memory pressure

That's the absolute minimum in my book. The result would be a 30-40 watt SoC that's faster than any (except extreme enthusiast-level) desktop CPU currently at the market with the GPU performance of a mid-range dGPU.

 

[pshufd]

One benefit of the improved GPU solution will be PC users fed up with the high prices and unavailability of dGPUs. You even have that with the M1 systems right now.

 

[l0stl0rd]

Number of cores is kinda how we define an "X" chip

well it is an X so has to be 10

 

[Wolff Weber]

well it is an X so has to be 10

8P+2E sums to X. So say the rumors about Jade-C. ?

 

[Metrosey]

It would seem odd for it to be on A14 rather than A15, unless the MacBook Pro X version will be on a two year cycle

I’m expecting higher clock speeds too

 

[pshufd]

I really don't care whether it's A14 or A15. A15 would be nice but I'm looking for RAM and additional CPU capacity for my production stuff. I have one M1 mini right now and I think that my workload would run really nicely with another two M1 minis or 1 M1X with 32-64 GB of RAM. Making an M1X mini is always an option by buying two M1 minis. Fortunately my workload can be partitioned.

 

[T0m0]

To be honest, I'd be pretty disappointed if Apple didn't put an M2 in the new MacBook Pro. Trying to sell the Pro model with a one year-old CPU as new really reminds me of the Intel roadmap. Trying to sell old wine in new wineskins by just changing little things can't be a claim for a Pro device in my opinion. Either they build a Pro model with all the necessary requirements or it remains a minimal compromise like the hot, noisy and unreliable Intel devices.

To be realistic, we will probably see exactly this minimal device with the M1X described above.

Apple will milk the M1 for as long as they can. With iPhone they have to compete, with Mac they don't. Therefore they can go the easy and cheap way and don't need to make a big effort with the CPU. The first pitch was good, but from then on it's just a bit of a ripple.

 

[pshufd]

To be honest, I'd be pretty disappointed if Apple didn't put an M2 in the new MacBook Pro. Trying to sell the Pro model with a one year-old CPU as new really reminds me of the Intel roadmap. Trying to sell old wine in new wineskins by just changing little things can't be a claim for a Pro device in my opinion. Either they build a Pro model with all the necessary requirements or it remains a minimal compromise like the hot, noisy and unreliable Intel devices.

To be realistic, we will probably see exactly this minimal device with the M1X described above.

Apple will milk the M1 for as long as they can. With iPhone they have to compete, with Mac they don't. Therefore they can go the easy and cheap way and don't need to make a big effort with the CPU. The first pitch was good, but from then on it's just a bit of a ripple.

The vast majority of customers will be happy to have a pro machine that doesn't sound like a jet engine, gets fabulous battery life and stays cool under pressure. The pandemic has caused a lot of problems in R&D, Logistics and just about everything. I will be happy to upgrade from my Retina MacBook Pro era systems.

 

[profcutter]

I suspect that the new machines will be a variation of the m1. I think they were supposed to be released in the spring, but due to shortages and delays, are finally coming out this fall. If it’s shortages to blame, then they wouldn’t have been able to shoehorn a new chip into these machines without delaying them further. PowerBook g5 anyone?

 

[JMacHack]

I think point 2-3 are the least likely scenarios. Based off of what these chips are rumored to replace, the current 16” pro starts at 16gb ram and has higher display-out capabilities.

It made sense for the M1 to only include 16gb max and 2 total displays as it’s really the bottom of the barrel chip designed for low power, consumer-heavy devices like the MacBook Air and Mac mini.

I think it’s smart to tamper expectations on performance though. I prefer to be surprised rather than disappointed on this front.

I know that it’s unlikely given the rumors, but I decided to discount the rumors because, well, they’re rumors.

From dives into the M1 architecture we know the 16 gb and single display output was an inherited architectural limit from the A-Series chips.

My reasoning was to go with the “most pessiumum” idea that those limitations would not be surpassed until the M2 ships, and that the M1X is only differentiated by more P cores and more GPU cores.

 

[JMacHack]

Also thanks to the people who thought this thread is a good idea. Personally I like to lean conservative on estimates to temper expectations. I find it helps ground me to reality. (Read more Epictetus, you plebians!)