M2X 16" MacBook Pro speculation

[UBS28]

I think we will see the 16" MBP by the end of October and will feature a M2X chip rather than a M1X based 16" MBP.

The reason why I believe this, is that Apple seems to have work to do to make the M1 comparable to an Intel chip (higher RAM support, higher Thunderbolt speeds, better bluetooth, multiple display support, and so on .... ). So October 2021 should be enough time to make these improvements and the A15 chip should be ready by then to modify it into a M2X chip.

However this is just speculation on my side and I could be totally wrong and Apple might release a M1X 16" MBP early next year. But I do not believe simply slapping on more cores on the current M1 chip is the way to go for the 16" MBP, hence why I am skeptical about a M1X based 16" MBP.

 

[matrix07]

It’s really simple. If Apple release 16” MBP the first half of next year it’ll be M1X. If they release it the latter part of the year it will be M2(X).

 

[jdb8167]

I think it is much more likely that we get an M1X 16" next year around June-July. It takes time to design CPUs/SoCs. The next version will be an M1 with more cores for CPU and GPU and more I/O for at least 4 Thunderbolt/USB4 ports and 2-4 video displays. That is going to go into the 16" MBP and probably a 24" iMac. I don't think you are going to see an M2 until 2022.

 

[Serban55]

It is just a marketing name...no matter if it will be called M1X or M2...the fact is that the 16" will have a chip that supports 4 ports, multiple external displays..the imacs also needs that kind of chip since i do not see the 24" imac to be released with just 2 ports
Next year will also be about that Apple custom gpu and it will show what apple can do in that regard too...since we all saw what they did with the SoC M1

 

[jdb8167]

It is just a marketing name...no matter if it will be called M1X or M2...the fact is that the 16" will have a chip that supports 4 ports, multiple external displays..
Next year will also be about that Apple custom gpu and it will show what apple can do in that regard too...since we all saw what they did with the SoC M1

You are right, I should have been more explicit. I mean that we won't see a new CPU/SoC architecture until 2022. The next generation will have the same Fire Storm, Ice Storm and GPU design as the M1, there will just be more of them hence M1X just like 12X/12Z. I expect in 2022 that Apple will either use 5nm+ or 4nm from TSMC and a somewhat updated architecture to get some additional performance from the CPU and/or GPU. That is what I'm thinking of as the M2.

 

[senttoschool]

It’s really simple. If Apple release 16” MBP the first half of next year it’ll be M1X. If they release it the latter part of the year it will be M2(X).

I think it will be M1X next year no matter when they release it.

Macs don't follow the same schedule as iPhones.

 

[Serban55]

a new CPU/SoC architecture until 2022

yep in 2022 we will have 3nm ...if that is what you mean by "new architecture" because if you think in 2022 Apple will move from arm architecture , you know its not going to happen....this move to their own arm architecture is here to stay i think for at least a decade...in 2024 we will have 2nm i think from Apple
The best thing from Apple was to move from Intel

 

[jdb8167]

yep in 2022 we will have 3nm ...if that is what you mean by "new architecture" because if you think in 2022 Apple will move from arm architecture , you know its not going to happen....this move to their own arm architecture is here to stay i think for at least a decade...in 2024 we will have 2nm i think from Apple
The best thing from Apple was to move from Intel

I don't think we will have 3nm in 2022. The latest I saw from TSMC was 2023 for 3nm. But they are talking about both 5nm+ and 4nm before then.

New architecture as in new computer architecture. When you design for a new node size, you generally have to redesign your chip for that node. At the same time, you can update your architecture with more cache, larger ROB, more memory bandwidth etc. Apple already does an 8-wide instruction decode so they probably aren't improving on that but there are a lot of aspects to computer architecture that can be improved with a larger transistor budget that comes with a new node size.

 

[Serban55]

I don't think we will have 3nm in 2022. The latest I saw from TSMC was 2023 for 3nm. But they are talking about both 5nm+ and 4nm before then.

Regarding for new arh, after i see the diff between x86 and arm....for me that is a brand new arhi....the rest...are just updates, and updates can also be named as new architecture of course...
5nm+ in late 2020 and 2021
"TSMC confirms 3nm tech for 2022, could enable epic 80 billion transistor GPUs"
so if they are lying..i am too

and " TSMC will have 2nm chips in mass production in 2024"

So i see apple skip 4nm since the macs will not be updated year after year like the iphones are....even the ipads have around 16-18 cycle ..so for the macs we can see 5nm down to 3nm straight

 

[jdb8167]

Regarding for new arh, after i see the diff between x86 and arm....for me that is a brand new arhi....the rest...are just updates, and updates can also be named as new architecture of course...
5nm+ in late 2020 and 2021
"TSMC confirms 3nm tech for 2022, could enable epic 80 billion transistor GPUs"
so if they are lying..i am too

and " TSMC will have 2nm chips in mass production in 2024"

I need a link. You might have seen a report about having 3nm risk production which is something no company could rely on for large scale manufacturing. It is possible that TSMC is way ahead of its previous schedule but not very likely.

TSMC 5nm+ and 4nm

 

[Serban55]

just copy paste that quote from me in google search and all the links shows up but never mind here it is...

TSMC confirms 3nm tech for 2022, could enable epic 80 billion transistor GPUs

But probably a bit later than 2022...

www.pcgamer.com

"Monster chip foundry TSMC has confirmed its 3nm production node is on track for full mass production in the second half of 2022, . TSMC reckons its 3nm node will pack in somewhere north of 250 million transistors per square millimetre of silicon"
So we can see those late 2022 macs to be the first
So good times...and as far as i know TSMC never lied

 

[ArPe]

I think we will see the 16" MBP by the end of October and will feature a M2X chip rather than a M1X based 16" MBP.

The reason why I believe this, is that Apple seems to have work to do to make the M1 comparable to an Intel chip (higher RAM support, higher Thunderbolt speeds, better bluetooth, multiple display support

The M series already supports as much RAM as macOS can address. It already supports the same Thunderbolt lane speed as Intel. It already supports multiple displays. You just don’t get tons of RAM and multiple displays on the introductory models they released so far because they are low to mid range systems. Apple controlled the die size to emphasise battery life on the systems they released.

But technically speaking the memory support already exists and is reserved for higher end systems. If you are experiencing slower Thunderbolt right now that will be fixed with firmware.

 

[Falhófnir]

It is just a marketing name...no matter if it will be called M1X or M2...the fact is that the 16" will have a chip that supports 4 ports, multiple external displays..the imacs also needs that kind of chip since i do not see the 24" imac to be released with just 2 ports
Next year will also be about that Apple custom gpu and it will show what apple can do in that regard too...since we all saw what they did with the SoC M1

More than just a marketing name, the M1 (first generation mac chip) is based on the Firestorm and Ice storm cores from the A14 (10th generation iPhone chips). An M2 or any variant thereof is more likely to be based on the A15 core designs.

 

[Madonepro]

To paraphrase Steve Jobs, either they will or they won't. Second guessing any tech company is foolhardy. For one, we have no idea when Apple started designing chips for their computer line. They could be already done, and testing, or they could be still developing. It's fair to say, Apple are most likely watching the mood of the pro market, as obviously the next release of MacBooks will be those at the pro end. Ironing out issues with the lower but volume end, helps get the others right. Don't forget, in order of sales, the most sold MB is the MBA, then the MBP13 low spec, then MBP13 and MBP16.

 

[Never mind]

I think Apple will come out with an improved MacBook Pro M-CPU in 2021, 2022, 2023, etc. etc. ?

 

[smoking monkey]

I hope they release a nice cheap base model 16! Haha. I know they won't because they will be redesigned, but the M1 seems fast enough for my needs, I just want a bigger screen. So 1TB HD + 16GB RAM with an M1X with Touch ID and Face ID + Mini LED screen will cost around 2,600-2,700 bucks.

 

[neinjohn]

If MacBooks core development is attached to the iPhones cores they always need and deliver new improvements every year and TSMC if I ain't wrong does a node shrink then incremental improvement next year. So 2021 is still 5nm but not the same as 2020.

We also don't know how Apple development program is structured. AMD had a great jump on performance from Zen 2 to Zen 3 but both are on TSMC 7nm. They told us they have two teams working on the CPU development. A incremental improvements team and another which looks at ways to redesign their cores and was responsible for the Zen 3 performance boost. Also their GPU team used some tecnologies from their processor to help make the jump for the Radeon 6XXX series.

We can speculate there is different teams overlooking the high performance cores, the low power cores and the GPU, each can bring some big/meagre improvement. If ain't mistaken the LP cores had a 70% IPC jump from the A13 to a A14 and word got out from inside Apple that they were super impressed with their GPU performance.

 

[thenewperson]

If MacBooks core development is attached to the iPhones cores they always need and deliver new improvements every year and TSMC if I ain't wrong does a node shrink then incremental improvement next year. So 2021 is still 5nm but not the same as 2020.

Even if they use the same cores we can't assume development will happen at the same pace (see iPad Pros going over 2 years without a meaningful update, even though the AX series also uses the same cores). I'd love it if the Macs (most of them anyway) did get updates every year based on whatever new A series chip we get, but it's hard to say.

 

[avkills]

Apple could stay on 5nm for a couple years and still be relevent. Doesn't look like Intel will be on 5nm anytime soon, but AMD could be.

 

[UBS28]

Apple could stay on 5nm for a couple years and still be relevent. Doesn't look like Intel will be on 5nm anytime soon, but AMD could be.

Intel can dominate again.

If I was CEO of Intel, an external manufacturer like TMSC would be producing 5nm Intel chips right now as the writing has been on the wall that the manufacturing branch of Intel are a mess.

Sure, Intel would get alot of heat for killing all manufacturing jobs in the USA, but Apple and AMD are also outsourcing it to Asia.

I am really suprised Intel still wants to manufacture everything in-house while it has been clear for years that this is not the way with TMSC making the manufacturing branch of Intel look like a joke.

 

[Falhófnir]

Intel can dominate again.

If I was CEO of Intel, an external manufacturer like TMSC would be producing 5nm Intel chips right now as the writing has been on the wall that the manufacturing branch of Intel are a mess.

Sure, Intel would get alot of heat for killing all manufacturing jobs in the USA, but Apple and AMD are also outsourcing it to Asia.

I am really suprised Intel still wants to manufacture everything in-house while it has been clear for years that this is not the way.

They'd have to negotiate a very competitive market to get volume orders from TSMC. Look at the problems AMD have without adding yet another client into the mix. It's also not clear Intel's problems could be solved just by moving to a 5nm production process, if it was that simple they could probably do it themselves.

 

[UBS28]

They'd have to negotiate a very competitive market to get volume orders from TSMC. Look at the problems AMD have without adding yet another client into the mix. It's also not clear Intel's problems could be solved just by moving to a 5nm production process, if it was that simple they could probably do it themselves.

Now it is indeed too late to go TSMC as AMD and Apple take too much of their capacity.

But Intel had this problem over 6 years with their own manufacturing division, so Intel could have partially switched some of the production to TSMC many years ago.

If Intel wants to start outsourcing their manufacturing in 2021, maybe Samsung could be a partner, because Samsung also have the technologies in place for the 5nm process.

The way I see Intel their problems, it is solvable if Intel give up their ego of wanting to do everything in-house.

 

[Chozes]

Apple have been smart with manufacturing. Only one M1 with minimal variants (storage and RAM) have been released. I am so glad they released a Mac Mini and two Macbooks. Much better than rumored. Demand is mostly being met and 16GB variants can be pre ordered VS trying to find/hunt a new GPU or CPU on the PC/Windows side. The lack of pre ordering on AMD, Intel and Nvidia parts just does not make sense to me.

Look at AMD, Intel and Nvidia, struggling to meet demand. Too many models or variants, many of which are pointless.

M1 GPU performance was a huge surprise. IMO matching the i7 and Rx5500M should not be any issue for the new laptops coming up. The current M1 is so good on battery and quietness its hard to justify Windows laptops.

 

[JeepGuy]

I hope they release a nice cheap base model 16! Haha. I know they won't because they will be redesigned, but the M1 seems fast enough for my needs, I just want a bigger screen. So 1TB HD + 16GB RAM with an M1X with Touch ID and Face ID + Mini LED screen will cost around 2,600-2,700 bucks.

I agree, I'd take a 16" version with the current M1 as a base model.

 

[rui no onna]

I hope they release a nice cheap base model 16! Haha. I know they won't because they will be redesigned, but the M1 seems fast enough for my needs, I just want a bigger screen. So 1TB HD + 16GB RAM with an M1X with Touch ID and Face ID + Mini LED screen will cost around 2,600-2,700 bucks.

Yeah, I'd love to have a 16" version of the MacBook Air for under $2000. Without the Intel chip and discrete GPU, they could probably shave off some battery and weight while maintaining 18-20 hour battery life.