Hey everyone!
Pretty new here! I'm excited to see what the Apple silicon team will deliver for the first Mac SoC. It's a chance for Apple's silicon team to take the Mac far beyond the capabilities and performance of generic x86 competition in the PC space. I feel many tech enthusiasts are underestimating just how transformative this transition could be.
I haven't seen a thread dedicated to speculation around the performance and features of the first Mac SoCs, so wanted to get a discussion going 🙌 (if a thread does exist, sorry! link to it and I'll move there)
Leaks suggest that MacBook Pro will be the first Mac to get Apple Silicon, so I've had that on my mind since the announcement.
What might a MacBook Pro SoC look like?
Based on what we have already seen from iPad SoCs, rumours, and statements from the keynote, my conservative guesstimate is:
- ~25W TDP
- 5nm >200mm2 die size (monolithic)
- >3GHz peak boost
- 8P/4E CPU cores (as rumoured)
- ~4 TFLOP GPU
- 32MB L2
- Quad-channel LPDDR4X for >120GB/s
- All the other goodness like Neural Engine, custom video encode/decode, custom crypto etc.
I say conservative because I really don't think itt's a stretch based on what we've already seen from A12Z. The above is "just" iPad SoC "scaled up", so it's the bare minimum I would expect.
Things could get spicier than that, though! "Advanced Silicon Packaging" was called out during the Apple Silicon reveal. That could mean so many things - could be something exotic like 3D stacking, something like HBM memory on package, or it could be something relatively new like chiplets.
If I had to guess, I wouldn't expect the first generation SoC to be super exotic. It makes sense for Apple to ease into the transition and not go all out with novel packaging tech that hasn't been validated at scale. But then... why call out "Advanced Silicon Packaging" so early? Hmm 🤔 Exotic packaging might make sense on lower volume Mac's first which would rule out anything MacBook.
Some bonus things we could see:
- USB 4
- PCI-E 4 for storage
- HBM instead of LPDDR4X? I'm doubtful since it would be very expensive, especially to offer a 32GB model.
My personal view is that Apple will be ahead of Intel Tiger Lake and AMD Renoir/Cézanne in traditional CPU and GPU workloads... buuuuut that's not the most exciting part! What will really separate Apple from Intel and AMD will be the combination of Apple's hardware accelerators (AMX, Neural Engine) and Apple's software frameworks (like the accelerate framework). If Apple has nailed the frameworks, and that's a big if, they could be many times faster than PC competition in many workloads. That's just... huge.
(sidenote: was anyone else excited about heterogeneous compute many years back? When AMD introduced Fusion? I was, it was never realised, but Apple might have just solved that problem 🎉 )
What does everyone think? 🤔
Think I'm overestimating, underestimating or have just totally lost my mind? Let's discuss 👇😄
Edit: Clarify the post refers to MacBook Pro SoCs and not other models.
Pretty new here! I'm excited to see what the Apple silicon team will deliver for the first Mac SoC. It's a chance for Apple's silicon team to take the Mac far beyond the capabilities and performance of generic x86 competition in the PC space. I feel many tech enthusiasts are underestimating just how transformative this transition could be.
I haven't seen a thread dedicated to speculation around the performance and features of the first Mac SoCs, so wanted to get a discussion going 🙌 (if a thread does exist, sorry! link to it and I'll move there)
Leaks suggest that MacBook Pro will be the first Mac to get Apple Silicon, so I've had that on my mind since the announcement.
What might a MacBook Pro SoC look like?
Based on what we have already seen from iPad SoCs, rumours, and statements from the keynote, my conservative guesstimate is:
- ~25W TDP
- 5nm >200mm2 die size (monolithic)
- >3GHz peak boost
- 8P/4E CPU cores (as rumoured)
- ~4 TFLOP GPU
- 32MB L2
- Quad-channel LPDDR4X for >120GB/s
- All the other goodness like Neural Engine, custom video encode/decode, custom crypto etc.
I say conservative because I really don't think itt's a stretch based on what we've already seen from A12Z. The above is "just" iPad SoC "scaled up", so it's the bare minimum I would expect.
Things could get spicier than that, though! "Advanced Silicon Packaging" was called out during the Apple Silicon reveal. That could mean so many things - could be something exotic like 3D stacking, something like HBM memory on package, or it could be something relatively new like chiplets.
If I had to guess, I wouldn't expect the first generation SoC to be super exotic. It makes sense for Apple to ease into the transition and not go all out with novel packaging tech that hasn't been validated at scale. But then... why call out "Advanced Silicon Packaging" so early? Hmm 🤔 Exotic packaging might make sense on lower volume Mac's first which would rule out anything MacBook.
Some bonus things we could see:
- USB 4
- PCI-E 4 for storage
- HBM instead of LPDDR4X? I'm doubtful since it would be very expensive, especially to offer a 32GB model.
My personal view is that Apple will be ahead of Intel Tiger Lake and AMD Renoir/Cézanne in traditional CPU and GPU workloads... buuuuut that's not the most exciting part! What will really separate Apple from Intel and AMD will be the combination of Apple's hardware accelerators (AMX, Neural Engine) and Apple's software frameworks (like the accelerate framework). If Apple has nailed the frameworks, and that's a big if, they could be many times faster than PC competition in many workloads. That's just... huge.
(sidenote: was anyone else excited about heterogeneous compute many years back? When AMD introduced Fusion? I was, it was never realised, but Apple might have just solved that problem 🎉 )
What does everyone think? 🤔
Think I'm overestimating, underestimating or have just totally lost my mind? Let's discuss 👇😄
Edit: Clarify the post refers to MacBook Pro SoCs and not other models.
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