First of all, it depends on the previous photography experience of the person making the purchase. The D300 is not really a beginner's camera; it's a semi-pro camera with a lot of bells and whistles which are great when you know what they are and how to use them, but this camera body is not meant for the neophyte coming from a P&S.
Starting from ground zero and building a DSLR system is fun, challenging and potentially expensive. Most people start out modestly and then as their skills and needs develop they add more lenses and eventually move to another, more advanced body. Many, many years ago my first film SLR was a Minolta something-or-other with the standard 50mm lens. Eventually I bought a telephoto lens to use with it as well. As time went on, my skills and interest deepened and eventually I purchased my first Nikon, the N90 and a couple lenses, gradually adding a few more. Used that camera very happily for years until I got sidetracked by a series of Coolpix cameras -- my introduction to digital photography. The D70 was my first DSLR and after some time with it I felt ready to purchase the D200 when it was released. I used the D200 for two years before I felt "ready" for a D2Xs. During that time I developed my lens collection, purchasing the best lenses that I could afford, lenses which expanded my photographic range in some way. I mention all this to illustrate the point that most people don't jump right into a semi-pro camera body (however, some may do so if they have had some prior experience with film SLRs).
Many people coming from a P&S are attracted to the all-in-one 18-200mm VR lens because it offers a lot of focal ranges within one lens; no need to swap lenses. That's what they are accustomed to in their zoom lenses on P&S cameras. Reality is that the beauty of a DSLR is that very ability to swap out lenses and use specific lenses for specific photographic effects and purposes. The 18-200mm VR is a nice all-purpose traveler's lens but it is not one for which I reach very often when going out to shoot.
That 70-200mm f/2.8 VR you mention.....the day that I purchased my D70 with kit lens (18-70mm) I also purchased that lens. Why? Because I knew that I would be doing shooting within the range covered by that lens and because I knew it was a stellar lens, one which I would keep and use for years on all my successive camera bodies. I never regretted that decision. That 70-200mm VR does beautifully on my current cameras today and is still one of the most used lenses I own. Point being: buy the best lens you can afford. From the beginning the 18-70 and the 70-200 did very well for me on the D70. My next purchase was a 50mm f/1.4 lens for low-light shooting. In a few months this was followed by my first macro lens, the 105mm micro-Nikkor. I am still using these lenses today with my most recent cameras, except the 18-70mm, which I sold to a friend who was buying her first DSLR. I now have other lenses which cover that focal range.
Go for the D80 with the 18-70mm kit lens and the 70-200mm f/2.8 VR. You will learn much more from them than you would the D300 and 18-200mm VR. Shoot as often as you can with both those lenses, really get a sense of what they do and how you can get the most from them. This will also give you a feel for what else you'd like to shoot and which lenses might be most suited to that.
In a year or two after you've had a lot of shooting experience and have added a couple more lenses and a good tripod to your kit, then that's the time to consider moving on to the D300......
, I would get online and go to keh.com, and look for EX+ stuff.
