I think Apple will use the 10/16 16/512GB M1-Pro from the base 16" MBP, and based on the cost of upgrading from the 16/512GB 10/16 M1-Pro to the 32/512GB 10/24 M1-Max, the 10/16 M1-Pro Mini or Studio will be $1399 which is only $300 more than the 16/512GB M1 Mini. Upgrading to 16/512GB M1-Pro to the 32/512Gb M1-Max is $600, which is the price of the base 32/512GB M1-Max Studio. So there wont be an 8/14 M1-Pro Mini/Studio because the pricing of the 16/512GB 10/16 M1-Pro Mini/Studio at $1399 fits.
Its hard to say what the processor upgrades really cost because if the M1-Pro to M1-Max upgrade is $200 does anyone actually think it costs $50 to go from the 8/7 M1 to the 8/8 M1?
From the 14 MBP then a 8/14 to 10/16 is 300 so that gives us a solid figure for the M1 Pro upgrades
Is why saying won’t get an M1 Pro Mini 10/16 at 1399 or only 300 more then the M1.
Based simply on there upgrade pricing.
You would have Apple charging the same price to upgrade from the M1 8/8 to the M1 Pro 10/16 in the mini as Apple charges for M1 Pro 8/14 to 10/16 in the MBP.
Upgrade prices are consistent amongst the different platforms where available.
512Gb SSD to 1TB SSD is 200 wether in a Mini, MBP, iMac and Air or Studio
32Gb to 64 is 400 wether in MBP or Studio
8Gb to 16Gb is 200 wether in Air Mini or iMac
So is not unreasonable to suggest that with the MBP 14 having 300 for 8/14 to 10/16 that not going to get M1 8/8 to M1 Pro 10/16 for 300.
Also that the 16 to 32 ram upgrade is also going to be 400.
1Gbe to 10Gbe at 100
What we cannot know is M1 8/8 to M1 Pro 8/14 as so far no machine has M1 and M1 Pro available but cannot see Apple giving you it for free.
With the M1 8/8 16/512 at 1099 then is going to be more then 300 to get from M1 8/8 to M1 Pro 10/16 as we already have from the MBP 14 that Apple wants 300 to get from M1 Pro 8/14 to Pro 10/16 and upgrade pricing is consistent across the various models.
If you work DOWN from a Studio then using the consistent pricing from other Apple Silicon models you get
Max 10/14 to a Pro 10/16 is - 200
32 to 16 is - 400
10Gbe to 1Gbe is - 100
So working down a 10/16 16/512 M1 Pro Mini would be 1299
This is only 200 more then a 8/8 16/512 M1 is at 1099
However if work up from a M1 Mini using the consistent pricing from other models
M1 to Pro 8/14 - unknown
Pro 8/14 to 10/16 + 300
So working up from an M1 8/8 16/512 then is going to be more then 1399 as we know from upgrades will be more then 300 as that 300 doesn’t cover the the M1 to Pro 8/14.
Upgrade options
16 - 32Gb +400
10Gbe to 1Gbe + 100
So IF take only 100 as what Apple would charge for M1 8/8 to M1 Pro 8/14 then would have a M1 Pro 10/16 at 1499 or 200 more then working down from a Studio.
Upgrade options
16 - 32 memory + 400
1Gbe to 10Gbe + 100
Now have an M1 Pro Mini 10/16 32/512 with 10Gbe at 1999 or same price as the base Studio.
Maths are
1099 for 8/8 16/512 1Gbe actual model available so price is definitely known.
1199 for Pro 8/14 16/512 1Gbe based on a 100 estimate as won’t be free.
1499 for Pro 10/16 16/512 1 Gbe is a known 300 upgrade from MBP.
1899 for Pro 10/16 32/512 1Gbe is a known 400 upgrade from MBP.
1999 for Pro 10/16 32/513 10Gbe is a known 100 from Mini
As looking at a mini still then working up from a Mini is more realistic then working down from a Studio.
This is basing on a 100 upgrade for M1 8/8 to Pro 8/14 which Apple is not going to give you for free.
People saying want the 32Gb Memory option in the forums as need more then 16 but don’t need the Studio extra CPU/GPU so would be offered. Enough people must want the 10Gbe option for it to be offered on the mini already.
This is why saying that between the M1 mini pricing and base studio there simply isn’t a space for an M1 Pro Mini in the pricing structure.
Apple would have to lower the mini starting price/upgrade prices that charge to make a price slot where would make the M1 Pro Mini lower by 200 then a similar Studio.
Not defending apples prices simply going with what they are currently.
I personally was looking for a M1 Pro 10/16 32/512 Mini to replace my hackintosh which basically an iMac 2019 with i9 9900k 32/1TB and RX580 GPU. With Monterey/open core and possible NVME Samsung 970 evo issue with slowdown then want to get off the Hackintosh route as now more effort then worth personally.
Doing the maths then ordered a base Studio as working up from a mini then at the studio price but with the better SoC.