My guess is Apple may lengthen upgrade cycles of Macs from 6-9 months to up to 5 years

[Hexley]

Do not worry, this is just a thought experiment. I hope I am not correct.

I say this as a number of Macs have not had a ~yearly refresh as like it was during the PPC & early Intel Macs.

This is probably because of economies of scale from lower volume. It does not help that Apple makes their own Mac chips just for their Macs unlike Intel making chips for all PC makers.

Just a thought given that the tech inside Macbook Pro 16" has not changed for 22 months already.

M1 Macs may be with us for a good few more years to come so M2, M3, etc may not come until the mid 2020s or 2030s.

Not that it isn't that bad considering M1 outperforms their Intel/AMD rivals at the same power draw.

 

[dukebound85]

misleading title

either provide a source or reword

 

[Hexley]

misleading title

either provide a source or reword

Done

I point the source as myself. Original text stipulated it was my thought experiment.

Remember, this is a rumor site so keep things within that perspective.

 

[sunny5]

misleading title

either provide a source or reword

According to Wiki, at least MBP and MBA had annual updates unlike other Macs.

 

[cmaier]

This is silly

 

[jdb8167]

Do not worry, this is just a thought experiment. I hope I am not correct.

I say this as a number of Macs have not had a ~yearly refresh as like it was during the PPC & early Intel Macs.

This is probably because of economies of scale from lower volume. It does not help that Apple makes their own Mac chips just for their Macs unlike Intel making chips for all PC makers.

Just a thought given that the tech inside Macbook Pro 16" has not changed for 22 months already.

M1 Macs may be with us for a good few more years to come so M2, M3, etc may not come until the mid 2020s or 2030s.

Not that it isn't that bad considering M1 outperforms their Intel/AMD rivals at the same power draw.

18 month cycles. Surely no longer than that unless some very odd circumstances. The long delay for the 16” MBP is because of the ASi timing vs Intel updates. Was Apple supposed to update to Tiger Lake on the 16” this year?

 

[Gnattu]

to up to 5 years

No, they had something was even longer than that, and nobody like that.

 

[Tagbert]

Part of the reason to move to Apple Silicon (AS) is that it lets Apple control their update cycle in a way they could not with Intel. This reduces the overhead of updating the Macs. They are likely to updated them on a more regular and more frequent schedule than before. Moving to a long cycle like 6-9 years means that the Macs would soon not be competitive and customers would abandon them.

The current time is in transition and I would not try to apply historic trends to the update cycles of the current or recent Macs. Apple is likely to update them all as quickly as they can to get everything migrated over the AS as soon as they can. Once that is done and they have shown everyone the kind of performance that they can provide, Apple will probably settle down into a regular update cycle of between 1 and 2 years for most of their lines. Some may get annual updates and others only every 2 years or so. Longer update cycles would send the wrong message.

 

[JPack]

You're using Intel 14nm to extrapolate the future of Apple Silicon?

Come on.

 

[MyopicPaideia]

Agree with everyone here. If anything the update cycle will become overall shorter and and more regular, on par with the mobile devices. MBA and 24” iMac probably annually, 14-16 MBP‘s and bigger iMac probably around 18 months, and Eventually the Mac Pro around 24-30 months.

 

[senttoschool]

Intel chips were late with no improvements. Apple couldn't update even if they wanted to.

And Intel chips continued to get hotter and hotter so Apple couldn't even redo the chassis.

We should get new Macs every 12 - 18 months.

 

[Schismz]

View attachment 1840974

No, they had something was even longer than that, and nobody like that.

Uhm, you realize Mac Pro lives in a special part of the multiverse, where time works differently, and Apple forgets that it exists for half a decade+ and only wakes up when enough people trapped inside Logic Pro -- or the minuscule handful of individuals left who are using Final Cut or prefer Davinci Resolve or whatever on macOS -- rattle their cages long enough for Apple to kick something out the door which accounts for roughly .001% of their target demographic.

Mac Pro is representative of nothing except Mac Pro. Just saying, I'm a resident of this part of the multiverse, and it's way, way, way left of center (iPhone).

 

[leman]

Na, if anything, Apple is going back their usual cycle of yearly updates. I expect things to be a bit jumpy in the next year or two until they get the gears in place but from there in it should be a smooth ride.

 

[Gnattu]

Uhm, you realize Mac Pro lives in a special part of the multiverse, where time works differently, and Apple forgets that it exists for half a decade+ and only wakes up when enough people trapped inside Logic Pro -- or the minuscule handful of individuals left who are using Final Cut or prefer Davinci Resolve or whatever on macOS -- rattle their cages long enough for Apple to kick something out the door which accounts for roughly .001% of their target demographic.

Mac Pro is representative of nothing except Mac Pro. Just saying, I'm a resident of this part of the multiverse, and it's way, way, way left of center (iPhone).

Well, but the OP claims that half decade would be a "normal" cycle, which I disagree with.

 

[Schismz]

Ya, totally agree with your disagreement. Apple wants you to update your sh1ny n3wnEs5 every year or more often, if at all possible. I think COVID supply chain issues have slowed things down a bit. But shoveling mountains of iCrap out the door as often as possible, is what sustains their stock.

 

[leman]

But shoveling mountains of iCrap out the door as often as possible, is what sustains their stock.

I have to remember this one ?

 

[theorist9]

There's the device update cycle and the chip update cycle. For the Macs, I envision a scenario in which the chips are updated generationally at the same frequency as those of the iPhones which, for the last three updates (A13/A14/A15), has meant annually.

However, unlike the case with iPhones, I expect the Macs won't get annual device updates. E.g., I don't expect they'll be redesigning the MacBook Pro annually. The Macs will likely have longer update cycles, say 3 years for the MBP, and maybe longer for the MacPro and shorter for the Air. The exception would be if they want to come out with different color schemes each year for, e.g., the Air and iMac.

 

[Tagbert]

There's the device update cycle and the chip update cycle. For the Macs, I envision a scenario in which the chips are updated generationally at the same frequency as those of the iPhones which, for the last three updates (A13/A14/A15), has meant annually.

However, unlike the case with iPhones, I expect the Macs won't get annual device updates. E.g., I don't expect they'll be redesigning the MacBook Pro annually. The Macs will likely have longer update cycles, say 3 years for the MBP, and maybe longer for the MacPro and shorter for the Air. The exception would be if they want to come out with different color schemes each year for, e.g., the Air and iMac.

For sure, case redesigns will happen more slowly than chip updates.

 

[5425642]

My guess is that they will release there MacBook Pro (pro kine) now in October / November then it will take 2 years between updates

 

[mj_]

I see stupid stuff on MR all day every day, but this thread (or thought experiment, or unfounded baseless speculation) has to be among the most pointless and silly things I have ever seen. Well done, the bar has just nosedived to a new low.

 

[oliverades]

I think once we’re firmly in the Apple Silicon era, updates will be more regular. I think things are just weird now because they’re still transitioning

 

[JMacHack]

You had an argument until you said “5 years”. That’s an absurd amount of time.

 

[Hexley]

You had an argument until you said “5 years”. That’s an absurd amount of time.

Mac Pro? iMac Pro?

 

[Jorbanead]

Mac Pro? iMac Pro?

Those are exceptions. iMac Pro has never been updated, and was created while apple was preparing for a chip transition. We don’t know if iMac Pro was just a one time product. It’s been discontinued. Mac Pro was on a yearly update cycle, but Apple has said they could not update the Mac Pro in 2014 because of thermals. They admitted the design was bad and said they had to rework it. Then the Apple silicon transition happened after the redesign.

You can’t extrapolate two oddities in the lineup to the entire product lineup. Plus, Apple is going through a major transition during a unprecedented pandemic and chip shortages. Surely timelines got messed up here.

Essentially anything after 2019 was effected by apples transition and the pandemic. There’s no way anyone can predict roadmaps at this point without a ton of guesswork and assumptions.