Need advice: MacBook Air M2 now or wait until October for potential M3?

[holgerflick]

Hi folks,

I always go by the excellent Buyer's Guide on this very page. It has never given me a false impression and always made sure that I had a product that I could use for years.

Today, I need some help deciphering.

I know that the MacBook Air 15" was introduced at WWDC. That's only a couple of weeks ago. It has the M2 chip. Wonderful.
Now, I read that M3 is just around the corner and 15" MacBook Air is also mentioned in the articles.

Would Apple really update the 15" this quickly only mere weeks into the release cycle? Has this happened in the past? And, does it make sense to wait or M3 in this case?

I know nobody has a glass ball that will tell them what Apple is going to do. I just don't want to purchase a new Mac that is outdated two months later.

My main system is a MacStudio M1 Ultra and I seldom used my MacBook Pro M1 Pro when traveling which made me sell it with the idea going for the newer, smaller, more battery life MacBook Air M2 15".

Any hint is appreciated. Thank you.

 

[h.gilbert]

No one here really knows. Your guess is as good as anyone else's.

I'd say if you don't really need a laptop now just wait until October.

 

[holgerflick]

I'd say if you don't really need a laptop now just wait until October.

The more I think about it... people say the "event" will be in September... so if they don't announce beginning/mid September, I will know. I can wait a month for a decision...

 

[ArkSingularity]

Hard to say when they will actually be released. I actually just bought my 14" fairly recently despite the M3 supposedly being around the corner. I'm okay with my decision and don't regret my purchase (I needed more RAM/storage, and nothing stays new forever anyway).

But if you aren't in the market for the 14"/16" ones (which will likely be updated later), I would definitely not fault anyone for waiting a month or two and seeing what October brings. Right now all we have is rumors, but some of the rumors we've been hearing about around here are looking quite good.

 

[JPack]

The more I think about it... people say the "event" will be in September... so if they don't announce beginning/mid September, I will know. I can wait a month for a decision...

Not sure who you've been listening to, but Mac hardware is never in September. That month is reserved for iPhone.

 

[wilberforce]

Not sure who you've been listening to, but Mac hardware is never in September. That month is reserved for iPhone.

True, although sometimes iPhones have been announced in October instead of September.

Many Macs have been announced in October or early November.

However, I have never known a Mac to be updated in less than 6 months, and usually a year or more

 

[thenewperson]

Would Apple really update the 15" this quickly only mere weeks into the release cycle? Has this happened in the past? And, does it make sense to wait or M3 in this case?

They have not done this to my recollection so you’re better off waiting till next year for something on the MBA front. Probably at WWDC.

 

[Zest28]

If you want the 15", buy it now. If you want the 13", wait for the M3 version.

Only the 13" M2 MBA will be updated to M3. It makes no sense to update the 15" this early, so not a chance that it will happen.

 

[wegster]

There's no way Apple will short-cycle and rush to update the 'new' M2 MBA 15 within months.- this has real cost to them that they need to make back on the existing model, and they will roll out in similar order to what they've done previously, on a 'pro' first, then followed by the Pro and Max variants. I'd expect at least a year before the M2 MBA is shifted to M3 personally.

You can check in the MR buyers guide but the average Air model update time is closer to ~450 days, so even more than a year. You're pretty safe picking up an M2 MBA now IMO, and besides, will you personally really benefit or need M3 (base chip, not Pro or Max) performance in the first place?

 

[herbert7265]

There is a simple rule, considering such topics: You need (!) something now (!), buy what is available now!

For what I understand, you seem not really to need (!) a new laptop now, so you may as well wait for “the next better thing”.

I just don't want to purchase a new Mac that is outdated two months later.

Look, maybe it’s just me, but such a statement is quite a bit “off topic”. At the moment a new model, of whatever, is released, the previous model is no longer the most actual model, that’s obvious. But calling the previous model outdated, especially referring here to such a computer… hmm!

Herbert

 

[Shortpay]

If you need it today you wouldn't be asking whether to wait until Oct/Nov.

 

[philipma1957]

It is an easy choice wait til OCT 16 - Oct 23. If they don't upgrade buy the M2 on the Black Friday sale.

I am looking to upgrade myself. I have 3 Mac mini's a 2014 a 2018 a 2020. I was going to get a m2 pro Mac mini with 16gb ram and a 1tb ssd. When I saw the M3 was coming out I have made my mind up to wait til it drops and with get a M3 Mac mini or maybe a M3 Studio.

 

[wegster]

I just don't want to purchase a new Mac that is outdated two months later.

My main system is a MacStudio M1 Ultra and I seldom used my MacBook Pro M1 Pro when traveling which made me sell it with the idea going for the newer, smaller, more battery life MacBook Air M2 15".

Any hint is appreciated. Thank you.

There is a simple rule, considering such topics: You need (!) something now (!), buy what is available now!

For what I understand, you seem not really to need (!) a new laptop now, so you may as well wait for “the next better thing”.


Look, maybe it’s just me, but such a statement is quite a bit “off topic”. At the moment a new model, of whatever, is released, the previous model is no longer the most actual model, that’s obvious. But calling the previous model outdated, especially referring here to such a computer… hmm!

Herbert

I kind of think Herbert said it all, really. The fact you own a MacStudio does make me ask exactly what you do on your systems - did you buy a Studio 'to have the best' or do your workloads truly significantly benefit from having a Studio?

Unless your compute power directly translates into more billable work, it falls into 'nice to have' but also will be 'outdated' within a year regardless in most cases.

Working as a developer/sw engineer, as well as building and managing datacenters/cloud and having a long-running interest in gaming, for a long time I chased 'latest and greatest' but eventually some common sense and basic math came into play. The difference for me in bringing a 2 hour local compile job down to 1:45 just isn't a meaningful-enough upgrade, although obviously something like 2 hours down to < 1 hour starts to be fairly compelling.

I'm not writing code daily nowadays in my current role although I still heavily use VMs, occasionally am compiling low level code or cross-platform and doing some AI/ML - all of these things could see some improvements with 'latest and greatest' but not worth it to me in most cases. If we do some rough math across phone, watch, and MacBook purchases (recall I sad rough math), let's assume phones are $1K, watches $500, and my typical specced laptops are avg of $2500 (now more like $4k, but for quick numbers that'll average out well enough).

watch: Series 2 (refused until waterproof) -> series 6 (used) now = $1K, versus $3500 chasing latest.
phones: Original -> 3GS -> 6S -> X -> 11 Pro Max = $5K versus technically 21 models ($21K) or 11 of 'every other' at ~$10.5K
MacBooks: MBP15 core duo -> white MacBook Santa Clara chipset (and numerous manual upgrades) -> 2011 MBP15 (w/upgrades over time) -> 2015MBP (bought used 6mos old with 16GB 1TB for ~$1600 in 2016) -> 2019 MBP16 (bought slightly used for $3200 vs > $4K in early 2020) -> MBP M1 Max 64GB 2TB (bought 12 months old with 2 years AppleCare remaining for $2300) = ~$14K versus what would have been 2006-2023 =17 'upgrades' yearly which would run ~$42500, or $21250 at every other year.
Total: $20K over 17 years for 'near top end or at very least more than good enough' vs $67K yearly 'upgrades.'

Again, some people truly need absolutely top-end/latest always, but far fewer than get caught up in the 'must buy latest' trap, IMO.

 

[izzy0242mr]

I kind of think Herbert said it all, really. The fact you own a MacStudio does make me ask exactly what you do on your systems - did you buy a Studio 'to have the best' or do your workloads truly significantly benefit from having a Studio?

Unless your compute power directly translates into more billable work, it falls into 'nice to have' but also will be 'outdated' within a year regardless in most cases.

Working as a developer/sw engineer, as well as building and managing datacenters/cloud and having a long-running interest in gaming, for a long time I chased 'latest and greatest' but eventually some common sense and basic math came into play. The difference for me in bringing a 2 hour local compile job down to 1:45 just isn't a meaningful-enough upgrade, although obviously something like 2 hours down to < 1 hour starts to be fairly compelling.

I'm not writing code daily nowadays in my current role although I still heavily use VMs, occasionally am compiling low level code or cross-platform and doing some AI/ML - all of these things could see some improvements with 'latest and greatest' but not worth it to me in most cases. If we do some rough math across phone, watch, and MacBook purchases (recall I sad rough math), let's assume phones are $1K, watches $500, and my typical specced laptops are avg of $2500 (now more like $4k, but for quick numbers that'll average out well enough).

watch: Series 2 (refused until waterproof) -> series 6 (used) now = $1K, versus $3500 chasing latest.
phones: Original -> 3GS -> 6S -> X -> 11 Pro Max = $5K versus technically 21 models ($21K) or 11 of 'every other' at ~$10.5K
MacBooks: MBP15 core duo -> white MacBook Santa Clara chipset (and numerous manual upgrades) -> 2011 MBP15 (w/upgrades over time) -> 2015MBP (bought used 6mos old with 16GB 1TB for ~$1600 in 2016) -> 2019 MBP16 (bought slightly used for $3200 vs > $4K in early 2020) -> MBP M1 Max 64GB 2TB (bought 12 months old with 2 years AppleCare remaining for $2300) = ~$14K versus what would have been 2006-2023 =17 'upgrades' yearly which would run ~$42500, or $21250 at every other year.
Total: $20K over 17 years for 'near top end or at very least more than good enough' vs $67K yearly 'upgrades.'

Again, some people truly need absolutely top-end/latest always, but far fewer than get caught up in the 'must buy latest' trap, IMO.

Hero-tier status explaining both the cost differential of constantly chasing the latest upgrade and for showing how you can get amazing hardware for big price discounts just by buying gently used items. Cheers!

 

[wegster]

Hero-tier status explaining both the cost differential of constantly chasing the latest upgrade and for showing how you can get amazing hardware for big price discounts just by buying gently used items. Cheers!

I've kind of meant to do it for a long time, and DID even scour for my 'lightly used' and refurb receipts. Just couldn't get to the Excel 'real retail price for each one' because I do have a day job.. Add in my wife's devices (which lol, SHE amusingly needs far less but gets new > me for iPad and watch), but it's still another added chunk of savings, probably another 15K or more.

 

[spiderman0616]

I'd go for it now if you need one now. M3 looks to be awesome, but it won't be a huge performance gain over M2, nor should we be expecting it to at this point. Intel to M1 was the enormous jump we were all waiting for, so I think you can buy with confidence.

 

[JPack]

There's no way Apple will short-cycle and rush to update the 'new' M2 MBA 15 within months.- this has real cost to them that they need to make back on the existing model, and they will roll out in similar order to what they've done previously, on a 'pro' first, then followed by the Pro and Max variants. I'd expect at least a year before the M2 MBA is shifted to M3 personally.

You can check in the MR buyers guide but the average Air model update time is closer to ~450 days, so even more than a year. You're pretty safe picking up an M2 MBA now IMO, and besides, will you personally really benefit or need M3 (base chip, not Pro or Max) performance in the first place?

The 15-inch MBA uses the same logic board as 13-inch MBA. Apple is already recovering engineering costs by putting M2 in MacBook Pro, iPad Pro, Mac mini, and Vision Pro. I doubt Apple is counting on 15-inch MBA to break even.

 

[wegster]

The 15-inch MBA uses the same logic board as 13-inch MBA. Apple is already recovering engineering costs by putting M2 in MacBook Pro, iPad Pro, Mac mini, and Vision Pro. I doubt Apple is counting on 15-inch MBA to break even.

Surprised if true - happen to have a link? (guess could check iFixit). Makes sense if they do share boards, just recalling them doing this elsewhere.