I would say either July (along with Android 4.3 if that's still planned) or in the fall (with the new Nexus device(s) and Key Lime Pie).
I'll definitely be jumping on the new N7 if the rumors of S800, 1080p, and $230 price point hold true.
If Google sells the new Nexus 7 for $230 and Apple brings the price of the iPad Mini 2 to a lower point (say, $299 maybe?) then Google will be in some trouble.
I really hope for the latter price point. $329 for two year old specs just doesn't cut it.
If you buy on specs, Apple isn't for you in any product category. You can get better specs cheaper but you know that.
Why would Apple reduce price? It's not like Nexus 7 is making huge strides against the iPad Mini mindshare. They don't have a history of sacrificing margin for market share either that I know of. Not that I would mind your scenario playing out because I plan to buy the next Mini or the next Nexus in any event.
I'm tempted to wait, too, to see what the iPad Mini 2 brings.
If Apple can lower the price, give it Retina without compromising battery life or size/weight, I may be tempted.
As I said before, iOS on the iPad is a far better experience than iOS on an iPhone. Just wish they did something with the keyboard for iOS 7, though...
It basically comes down to the Nexus 7 or the iPad Mini 2. I'm ready for a smaller tablet.