With the release of the D700, Nikon's response to Canon's 5D, I think that we're seeing how Full frame is slowly becoming the industry standard for DSLR systems..
1. Nikon has repeatedly stated that they do not match Canon model-for-model. The D700 is Nikon's response to Nikon's marketing plan- not their "response" to a 5D. A "response" usually doesn't price out at 30% more than the thing being responded to.
2. Full-frame 35mm will not become the "industry standard," the sensor is still the single-most expensive component, and hence the least-profitable part of the whole deal. Those economics are not destined to change- 2x the sensor, 4x the cost is likely to hold true for as long as we're dealing with CMOS and CCD devices, perhaps longer unless someone creates a magic "make a perfect wafer every time" device- in which case it'll still be 2x the cost.
3. Doubling from 2 to 4 models is hardly creating a "new standard-" even if you go to six, you're still nowhere near "standard."
Seeing as how the imminent release of the D90 will see a d80 body sporting a D300 sensor, and that the D700, D3, and the future D3x form a very encompassing 'pro' lineup, do you think that Nikon will drop their 'hundreds' line in place of cheaper semi-pro FX format cameras and high end consumer DX models? I think that the price difference between the D300 and D700 is to small to discern them, and seeing as cheaper cameras like the D90 will give D300-quality with a smaller price tag, Nikon may decide to drop the hundred's line and widen the gap..
Any thoughts?
Highly unlikely. There are advantages to having denser sensors in the professional line, and "cheaper" is much, much more difficult to do in FX than it is in DX because you get significantly smaller yields per wafer- I would suggest you read Canon's 2006 whitepaper "Canon's Full-Frame CMOS Sensors." It's the best look into the economics we'll get, and other than narrowing the number of steps for a full-frame sensor, it's still up to date. I suggest you pay particular attention to Section IV, "The Economics of Image Sensors" which includes the following data:
1 8" wafer ($450-500, $1,000 or $5,000) through 400-600 process steps gives you a wafer of sensor material. If you take that wafer and make APS-C sensors you get about 200 sensors. If you make APS-H sensors, you get about 46 sensors per wafer. For full-frame, you get 20.
Let's do that again- APS-C 200 sensors, FX 20 sensors.
That's a base 10x price difference that Canon says goes from 10x-20x because of handling and other defect issues. Turning that wafer into a sensor costs a lot of money- but that doesn't even make much difference, if I make 1M cameras and I can spend $22.50 less per unit on raw materials, that makes me $22.5M more profitable.
Let's say that in today's market an APS-C sensor is $75 in finished form, an FX sensor is going to be at least 3x and more likely between 6x and 9x that amount. So that'd put it in the $225 and up range. That's a $150/unit price increase before you look at bigger mirrors, hot mirrors, AA filters and prisms. Suddenly, my 1M cameras become almost a quarter of a billion more profitable.
I don't know why everyone keeps baying for "cheaper" FX cameras like the manufacturers are putting a thousand dollars into their pockets. The economics are always going to be in the APS-C camp- and the margins aren't staggering (they're good, but not phenomenal.) FX sensors are not cheap, they may get cheaper, but not on a ballistic curve and never relative to APS-C sensors.
Wishful thinking. Nikon will continue to produce what bodies make economic sense in the market, and pro APS-C bodies are "good enough" for lots of folks- I see no reason they'd ditch them any more or less than Canon would- that's where the best margins are, or you can give up some margin for volume sales- I don't see a rational reason for either company giving up that flexibility.