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EbookReader

macrumors 65816
Original poster
Apr 3, 2012
1,190
1
http://stratechery.com/2013/blackberry-and-nokias-fundamental-failing/
BLACKBERRY – AND NOKIA’S – FUNDAMENTAL FAILING

Nokia should have adopted Android-stock, and used their unmatched supply chain and distribution to do to their competitors, well, exactly what Nokia had been doing to their competitors for the last decade (if you think Samsung is running roughshod over everyone today, in 2007 they could only manage 41 million phones compared to Nokia’s 110 million3).


As an aside, a few months ago Stephen Elop came up with a new reason why Nokia was right to choose Windows Phone:

“I’m very happy with the decision we made,” he said. “What we were worried about a couple of years ago was the very high risk that one hardware manufacturer could come to dominate Android. We had a suspicion of who it might be, because of the resources available, the vertical integration, and we were respectful of the fact that we were quite late in making that decision. Many others were in that space already.
“Now fast forward to today and examine the Android ecosystem, and there’s a lot of good devices from many different companies, but one company has essentially now become the dominant player.”

This is revisionist ******** of the first degree. Had Nokia gone with Android, and the result had been one dominant player, it very likely would have been Nokia. More likely it would have been Nokia in first, Samsung in second, and everyone else fighting over scraps.





Both BlackBerry and Nokia would have gotten a good OS and thriving ecosystem for free and been able to compete and differentiate themselves on the exact same vectors they had previously. To put it another way, RIM and Nokia had never been successful because of their OS or ecosystem, yet both decided their best response to iOS and Android was to build a new OS!

In fact, the strategic superiority of the Android option for RIM and Nokia was even then so obvious that I suspect their core failing was not so much strategic as it was all-too-human: pride. Owning an ecosystem seems much more important than owning services or supply chains, even if building said ecosystem completely devalues what you’re actually good at.




-------------------------------------

saupload_global_smartphone_market_share_by_operating_system.jpg



idc-2010-smartphone-market-share-global.jpg


Nokia got Samsung dominated in 2010 (100 million smartphones to 23 million smartphones). Yet, 1 month later


On 11 February 2011, Nokia's CEO Stephen Elop, a former head of Microsoft business division, unveiled a new strategic alliance with Microsoft, and announced it would replace Symbian and the MeeGo project with Microsoft's Windows Phone operating system.


Who was stronger on February 2011?

Nokia

or

Samsung
 
Last edited:

mattopotamus

macrumors G5
Jun 12, 2012
14,738
6,109
I don't think there is any question about that. Most people would prefer Nokia hardware. The quotes you posted seem logical..they felt like they were already late to the party.
 

EbookReader

macrumors 65816
Original poster
Apr 3, 2012
1,190
1
idc-2010-smartphone-market-share-global.jpg


Nokia >>>>> Samsung by 4 times for the whole year of 2010.

And yet, Nokia switched to WINDOWS in February of 2011.

Biggest beneficiary? SAMSUNG

There are people who said that Stephen Elop is a Trojan Horse sent by Microsoft. But if Stephen Elop was a spy/agent of Samsung, he couldn't have done a better job.

He singlehandedly increased Samsung value by at least $30 billion USD.
 

KentuckyHouse

macrumors 68030
Jan 29, 2010
2,723
998
Lexington, KY.
I most definitely agree with this. If Nokia had gone with Android instead of "all-in" with WP, I have no doubt they would be in Samsung's position today. It was a MAJOR fail in decision making.

I've loved my Samsung phones, but the Lumias that I've had had such a more "premium" feel to them. Can you imagine a 4.7"-5" Lumia with the 1020's camera and running Android? Good grief...talk about a dream phone.

Of course, I also like my phones to have SD support (something that's going the way of the Dodo). It's one of the reasons I've stuck with Samsung for so long. But now that the Xperia Z1 is rumored to have SD support (and a 20 megapixel camera), is waterproof, and has my sweet spot 5" screen...that may very well be my next phone, as long as they actually bring it to the US and don't completely overprice it (which, knowing Sony...they will).
 

Dontazemebro

macrumors 68020
Jul 23, 2010
2,173
0
I dunno, somewhere in West Texas
I actually prefer Samsung not a fan of Nokia's and that's not to say they would have been every bit as successful as Samsung if they had joined the android coalition at the time.

One thing backing Sammy is

a) advertising dollars
b) every thing being built in-house and
c) the fearlessness to let it ride.

That's a winning recipe only a few possess and I definitely haven't seen that with the focus plan Nokia has been keeping of late.
 

scott craft

macrumors 6502a
Feb 10, 2011
697
143
Louisiana
I read an article last night on another forum that basically states the same as this thread that Nokia had no need to switch to Windows Phone because they were so dominant at the time.
 

Michael Goff

Suspended
Jul 5, 2012
13,329
7,422
No, I disagree with the assessment.

Samsung still had the ability to subsidize their mobile business while Nokia wouldn't have has that power. That is one of the biggest reasons why Samsung was able to weather it out until they started to do better... they could throw money at it.
 

Twixt

macrumors 6502
May 30, 2012
471
11
No, I disagree with the assessment.

Samsung still had the ability to subsidize their mobile business while Nokia wouldn't have has that power. That is one of the biggest reasons why Samsung was able to weather it out until they started to do better... they could throw money at it.

+1

Samsung has other divisions that bring cash flows which money was heavily invested into mobile business AND marketing effort. Also please note that Samsung controls some key elements such as displays and memory

Nokia could only count on historical feature phones business (mostly low end ones) and some infra business to get some cash for smartphone development. Obviously not enough so as to compete with Samsung
 

Dr McKay

macrumors 68040
Aug 11, 2010
3,531
264
Kirkland
I most definitely agree with this. If Nokia had gone with Android instead of "all-in" with WP, I have no doubt they would be in Samsung's position today. It was a MAJOR fail in decision making.

I've loved my Samsung phones, but the Lumias that I've had had such a more "premium" feel to them. Can you imagine a 4.7"-5" Lumia with the 1020's camera and running Android? Good grief...talk about a dream phone.

Of course, I also like my phones to have SD support (something that's going the way of the Dodo). It's one of the reasons I've stuck with Samsung for so long. But now that the Xperia Z1 is rumored to have SD support (and a 20 megapixel camera), is waterproof, and has my sweet spot 5" screen...that may very well be my next phone, as long as they actually bring it to the US and don't completely overprice it (which, knowing Sony...they will).

That's the annoying thing, don't Windows Phone handsets run the same hardware as Android phones? How come Lumias have never seen the likes of an Android ROM? Heck a lot of the older Windows Mobile Handsets saw Android ported onto them. Heck there was even an Android 2.3 ROM that ran on the iPhone, the 3G and the 3GS.
 

cube

Suspended
May 10, 2004
17,011
4,973
Nokia did not need to go Android.

They would have stayed at #1 with Meego and Meltemi.
 

flameproof

macrumors 6502a
Jan 14, 2011
615
18
If Nokia had gone with Android instead of "all-in" with WP, I have no doubt they would be in Samsung's position today. It was a MAJOR fail in decision making.

Why instead? HTC makes Android and WP phones, Samsung too. Nokia should have simply do Android phones too.
 

Technarchy

macrumors 604
May 21, 2012
6,753
4,927
I don't think so.

Samsung skyrocketed to fame off the GS2, which combined big hardware, and and graphics acceleration throughout the UI. It was the first time android was smooth, and responsive enough to be considered an iOS alternative.

In all likelihood Nokia would have been nothing more than another laggy skinned android also-ran, and Samsung still have been committed to chasing down Apple and created the Galaxy series.
 

LIVEFRMNYC

macrumors G3
Oct 27, 2009
8,878
10,987
I don't think so.

Samsung skyrocketed to fame off the GS2, which combined big hardware, and and graphics acceleration throughout the UI. It was the first time android was smooth, and responsive enough to be considered an iOS alternative.

In all likelihood Nokia would have been nothing more than another laggy skinned android also-ran, and Samsung still have been committed to chasing down Apple and created the Galaxy series.

Totally agree. Would Nokia have went bigger than 3.5 or 4(screen wise) if Samsung didn't lead the way?
 

adder7712

macrumors 68000
Mar 9, 2009
1,923
1
Canada
Of course, I also like my phones to have SD support (something that's going the way of the Dodo). It's one of the reasons I've stuck with Samsung for so long. But now that the Xperia Z1 is rumored to have SD support.

Not rumoured but it will in fact have a microSD card slot, as with its predecessor, the Xperia Z.
 

skratch77

macrumors 65816
Mar 20, 2013
1,241
5
Samsung got to where its at with its wilingness to push the limits of its in house hardware (true arm cores) with there own made exynos socs and being open and unlocked from the get go and yelling at devs saying hayyy we have this awesome arm arch and its open for you to molest the android kernel .

Samsung started getting huge before it even had a single commercial in the united states with the galaxy s2 and that cell barely made it here in the states and to this day Verizon(the number1 carrier) never even got that phone.

After its momentum with the galaxy s2 Samsung hired head programmer from cyanogen to work out the galaxy s3 ROM and was literally blowing the doors off of any other android phones out there in fluidness and stability.

Then the gs3 skyrocketed Samsung to where it us now along with major marketing behind it but name no mistake Samsung got to where its at before any of you even thought about android when the gs2 skyrocket was blowing the doors off of ever other cell at the time.

It was a developers dream of a device and Samsung has officially pushed the latest 4.2.2 android to it also.

Not bad for an almost 3 year old phone!

Now for ***** and giggles go back in time and look at the pos Nokia phones that were out when the gs2 came out
 

aneftp

macrumors 601
Jul 28, 2007
4,374
570
Things can change very quickly in an emerging tech market. Sure smartphone have been around before the iPhone. But the iPhone and its OS brought a new generation of smartphone platforms (iOS, android, BB10, windows phone (not windows mobile)

Both Nokia and RIM (now blackberry) failed to recognize this before it was too late. Both RIM and Nokia failed to change course until well after 3 years after the iPhone was announced in Jan 2010. RIm didn't buy QNX until April 2010. And Nokia didn't change to Windows phone until early 2011.

Way way too late in an emerging market. The key to maintain relevance in the tech market is to just copy the leader than hope to buy time to develope your own niche. Palm failed not because they failed to move forward. Palm started their webos soon after the iPhone was announced and released it in 2009. But Palm was severely restricted in money and by choosing the wrong carrier to launch a new product (Sprint).

I am sure if Verizon would have chosen Palm than maybe palm would have had a fighting chance. Instead the "Droid" marketing was probably already in the works with Motorola and Google after Google quickly realize using G1 and T-Mobile wasnt the best idea to gain market share.

Samsung hedges their bet with both Windows Phone and Android plus their own OS. Samsung will copy whatever they can. And it's proving to be a good business strategy. Nokia and RIM both had knuckle heads running the company who failed to see how fast the market was changing from 2007-2008.

Microsoft is only still around because they have billions in cash to promote windows phone. Microsoft themselves also make huge mistake by trying to hang on to Windows Mobile platform well until middle of 2008 before changing course. It takes about 2 years to get a platform up and running. That's why windows phone wasnt launched until late 2010. If Microsoft had made decision to ditch windows mobile in 2007 and launched windows phone in 2009 than we may be talking about Windows phone being the market leader.
 

kenypowa

macrumors 6502a
Oct 16, 2008
711
79
somewhere
While that chart is using correct information, it's being used to portray a bad piece of information. Nokia would have lost marketshare regardless of what happened, even if they went with Android or stuck with Meego.

Their marketshare would have stabilized had they gone Android.
 

cube

Suspended
May 10, 2004
17,011
4,973
While that chart is using correct information, it's being used to portray a bad piece of information. Nokia would have lost marketshare regardless of what happened, even if they went with Android or stuck with Meego.

Loyal Nokia customers would have gone with Meego and Meltemi, instead of massively rejecting Windows Phone, and abandoning the zombie Symbian.
 

Michael Goff

Suspended
Jul 5, 2012
13,329
7,422
Loyal Nokia customers would have gone with Meego and Meltemi, instead of massively rejecting Windows Phone, and abandoning the zombie Symbian.

We'll have to agree to disagree on that one.

They would have gone for cheap Android phones like they did.
 

Technarchy

macrumors 604
May 21, 2012
6,753
4,927
Loyal Nokia customers would have gone with Meego and Meltemi, instead of massively rejecting Windows Phone, and abandoning the zombie Symbian.

Loyal Nokia customers...? That's bad comedy.

Sticking with Meego would have done nothing but bolster Apple's iPhone user base.
 

Savor

Suspended
Jun 18, 2010
3,742
918
+1

Samsung has other divisions that bring cash flows which money was heavily invested into mobile business AND marketing effort. Also please note that Samsung controls some key elements such as displays and memory

Nokia could only count on historical feature phones business (mostly low end ones) and some infra business to get some cash for smartphone development. Obviously not enough so as to compete with Samsung
Exactly.

I admit I am NOT the biggest fan of Samsung but I respect how hard they worked to get this far. Back in the my teen years, my mentality was JAPANESE products were always better. A Korean company like Samsung was no better to me back in the 90's like what the brand Coby is today. I used to think Hyundai was crap only to realize they improved alot after renting a Sonata for a day back in 2005.

Many Japanese electronic companies like Sony, Panasonic, Toshiba, Hitachi, NEC, Sharp, etc fell from grace for many reasons. A weaker Japanese economy, a LOST generation from the 90's/00's after Japan had peaked in the 80's, clueless CEO's, and Koreans starting to build products cheaper, faster, and even better products than their Japanese counterparts.

Many retired-Japanese engineers also were recruited from companies in South Korea, China, and Taiwan.

This is a decent read albeit a bit too long -
 
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