Poll: Will the Watch Be Apple's Next Major Success?

[MICHAELSD]

With the iPhone and the iPad, there was little doubt that those were groundbreaking products with a clear market. The Watch seems to be squarely set in a market that doesn't need to exist, yet does without much reason at this point.

Riding off of hype alone, the Watch will likely go on to sell a million units over the course of a year or two. But it won't catch on at $349 without groundbreaking functionality, which it doesn't have. I'll keep calling it a fashion statement since that's what it is: a beautiful watch with a fantastic UI. Yet no real use. I'd buy one without the smart aspect for $99 but it would take a $149 price point to convince me to consider an Apple watch.

Is this really Apple's next big category or will it be a niche device that doesn't catch on?

P.S. I miss writing entire editorials on these types of topics.

 

[na1577]

I predict it will sell in healthy numbers initially. Like most Apple launches, supply will be limited at the beginning; in part due to production difficulties but also the high number of SKUs. Apple will release a statement along the lines of "Customers love the Apple Watch. Demand is phenomenal and we're making them as quickly as we can." The initial demand will die off relatively quickly, however, due to the high starting price and uncertainty of the wearable market. Customers will struggle to understand how the smartwatches fit into their lifestyle and sales will be sluggish as a result. Apple will lower the price to $299 or create other incentives mid-cycle to stimulate sales.

Despite the rocky start, Apple will still proceed with the thinner second generation Watch next fall alongside the iPhone 6s/6s+ and iOS 9. I believe that Apple will closely examine how developers leverage the technologies in the first generation Watch to determine where to direct the product line in future models and establish a clearer marketing message. I also expect a lower starting price for the 2015 Watch. The Android Wear market will shift more or less exclusively to round watches given the highly positive reception of the Moto 360's design, but Apple will continue to use the rectangular screen at least through 2015.

I don't foresee the Watch becoming a focus for Apple. It will become a hobby, similar to the Apple TV, and will not see regular updates after the first two years. Cellphones will always be in demand ensuring a future for the iPhone; but smartwatches do not fulfill any needs and this will hurt its ability to grow. It is purely a luxury and will struggle to prove any reason for its existence.

 

[TheDeviceUser]

I predict it will sell in healthy numbers initially. Like most Apple launches, supply will be limited at the beginning; in part due to production difficulties but also the high number of SKUs. Apple will release a statement along the lines of "Customers love the Apple Watch. Demand is phenomenal and we're making them as quickly as we can." The initial demand will die off relatively quickly, however, due to the high starting price and uncertainty of the wearable market. Customers will struggle to understand how the smartwatches fit into their lifestyle and sales will be sluggish as a result. Apple will lower the price to $299 or create other incentives mid-cycle to stimulate sales.

Despite the rocky start, Apple will still proceed with the thinner second generation Watch next fall alongside the iPhone 6s/6s+ and iOS 9. I believe that Apple will closely examine how developers leverage the technologies in the first generation Watch to determine where to direct the product line in future models and establish a clearer marketing message. I also expect a lower starting price for the 2015 Watch. The Android Wear market will shift more or less exclusively to round watches given the highly positive reception of the Moto 360's design, but Apple will continue to use the rectangular screen at least through 2015.

I don't foresee the Watch becoming a focus for Apple. It will become a hobby, similar to the Apple TV, and will not see regular updates after the first two years. Cellphones will always be in demand ensuring a future for the iPhone; but smartwatches do not fulfill any needs and this will hurt its ability to grow. It is purely a luxury and will struggle to prove any reason for its existence.

I don't see it becoming a hobby, Apple has introduced a new interface, which I see as meaning it'll get updates every year. I see Apple targeting this product as being something which people will get 'mid cycle'. What I mean by this is that the year people don't upgrade an iPhone due to a two year contract. They'll buy a new Apple Watch instead. That's why Apple has extended support to iPhone 5/s/c.

 

[randy98mtu]

Thanks for the post, na1577. Surprised I already forgot the sting from the original iPhone dropping $200 after 3 months. I really like what I see from the watch, but I would have been much happier to see it in the $149-249 range. Hopefully it will go that way in short order. I'm also frustrated knowing Apple's product cycle strategy and knowing it will take a year or two for it to get a few more meaningful sensors and features, and perhaps a bit thinner.

I am not among the haters though. I was wowed by the presentation yesterday and "had to have one." A day later and I'm a little more relaxed about it but still excited to see how it develops.