So hear me out first of all. If you look at the data in this link seven years ago Windows held about 73% with a max of 75% of the desktop market share versus 52-55% it holds now. Essentially a 20% decrease in 7 years. macOS within the same time frame has gained from about 20% to 34% of the market, or 14%.
So why do I think within the next seven years Apple will overtake Microsoft, shouldn't this trend flatten out? Maybe a little but as I see it by 2030 the marketshares will look like this for desktops:
macOS: 50%
Windows: 39%
ChomeOS: 11%
What would cause these marketshares? Well obviously PCs as a whole are used less overall than mobile and tablet devices, but there is also a Halo effect that Apple has had thanks to the sales of iPads and iPhones (obviously) but also ChromeOS eating at the share thanks to its widespread use in K-12. Age has a lot to do with it as well. I can't actually find the link but a few weeks ago I happened upon a poll that said 40% of college students have Macs vs 50% Windows and 10% Chrome OS, with I believe 30% of the Windows/Chrome users saying they would buy a Mac if they could afford it or essentially 80% of college students.
So what else would happen to help Apple out in these next 7 years? Well, OLED screens, cheaper models (rumored a laptop that will take on higher end Chromebooks so a $800-900 computer), and most importantly their bet on Apple silicon and their tight integration with it, as the vast majority of PCs continue going that way as well.
Of course, overall macOS is still used far less than almost any computing solution currently, but combined, they already have the majority of consumers in United States (as well as Canada) and macOS will likely also become the major OS of another few countries such as Canada in the future as well.
Either way, this is super crazy to someone who has been using the macOS platform for quite a long time and something that no one could have ever imagined would ever happen. Hopefully, if my predictions are true this will encourage developers to make even more software for macOS, specifically games, which honestly there does seem to be somewhat of a small gaming renaissance already happening.
Thoughts?
So why do I think within the next seven years Apple will overtake Microsoft, shouldn't this trend flatten out? Maybe a little but as I see it by 2030 the marketshares will look like this for desktops:
macOS: 50%
Windows: 39%
ChomeOS: 11%
What would cause these marketshares? Well obviously PCs as a whole are used less overall than mobile and tablet devices, but there is also a Halo effect that Apple has had thanks to the sales of iPads and iPhones (obviously) but also ChromeOS eating at the share thanks to its widespread use in K-12. Age has a lot to do with it as well. I can't actually find the link but a few weeks ago I happened upon a poll that said 40% of college students have Macs vs 50% Windows and 10% Chrome OS, with I believe 30% of the Windows/Chrome users saying they would buy a Mac if they could afford it or essentially 80% of college students.
So what else would happen to help Apple out in these next 7 years? Well, OLED screens, cheaper models (rumored a laptop that will take on higher end Chromebooks so a $800-900 computer), and most importantly their bet on Apple silicon and their tight integration with it, as the vast majority of PCs continue going that way as well.
Of course, overall macOS is still used far less than almost any computing solution currently, but combined, they already have the majority of consumers in United States (as well as Canada) and macOS will likely also become the major OS of another few countries such as Canada in the future as well.
Either way, this is super crazy to someone who has been using the macOS platform for quite a long time and something that no one could have ever imagined would ever happen. Hopefully, if my predictions are true this will encourage developers to make even more software for macOS, specifically games, which honestly there does seem to be somewhat of a small gaming renaissance already happening.
Thoughts?
