All iPads Predictions for iPadOS updates over the next 8 years

[Digitalguy]

Based on current patterns the base iPad has 6 major OS versions (5 OS updates), while the air and the pro have 8 (7 OS updates). So I made a chart with future OS updates and supported devices. What matters for support is the original OS of the device, not just the year of release.
My hypothesis is that the pro might move to 9 years from M1, with the Air (which gets the chip a year later) and mini staying probably at 8 years of support (so they both should get iPadOS 22, despite the fact that the M1 pro was launched with iPadOS 14 and the M1 air with iPadOS 15).
While Apple will ultimately decide, I think that's a reasonable prediction and I hope this can be of help to people wondering how long their device will be supported, but feel free to share your comments.
2024 update: the pattern is confirmed. Based on it, the only iPad to lose support with iPadOS 19 will be the iPad 7.

iPadOS version	Year	Base iPad (year of release)	Air / Mini (year of release)	Pro (year of release)
iPadOS 17	2023-2024	From iPad 6 A10 2018 (2GB RAM)	Air 3 / Mini 5 A12 from 2019	A10X 2017
iPadOS 18	2024-2025	From iPad 7 A10 2019 (3GB RAM)	Air 3 / Mini 5 A12 from 2019	A12X 2018
iPadOS 19	2025-2026	From iPad 8 A12 2020	Air 3 / Mini 5 A12 from 2019	A12X 2018
iPadOS 20	2026-2027	From iPad 9 A13 2021	Air 4 (A14) 2020 / Mini 6 A15 2021	A12Z 2020 (6GB RAM)
iPadOS 21	2027-2028	From iPad 10 A14 2022	Air 4 (A14) 2020 / Mini 6 A15 2021	M1 2021
iPadOS 22	2028-2029	X (no newer base iPad yet, probably iPad 11)	Air 5 M1 2022 / Mini 6 A15 2021	M1 2021 / M2 2022
iPadOS 23	2029-2030	X (no newer base iPad yet, probably iPad 11/12)	Air 6 M2 2022 / Mini 7	M2 2022
iPadOS 24	2030-2031	X (no newer base iPad yet)	Air 6 M2 / Mini 7	M2 2022

 

[snow755]

I think anything with a A10 and A11 will get the chopping block this year

 

[Digitalguy]

I think anything with a A10 and A11 will get the chopping block this year

On iPhone it's possible, but Apple has shown that they are giving longer support to iPads than to iPhones.
So, for iPad this year they should remove anything A9 and probably A9X, but leave A10 to give 6 years to the 2018 iPad too, just like they did with the 2017 one. Not only that, but the 3GB A10 will likely survive another year, so that the iPad 7 gets its 6 years too.
A11 is not an iPad chip.

 

[max2]

Glad my iPad Pro 11 inch 4 th generation will most likely last a while!

 

[FeliApple]

Predictably, my favourite chipset ever has finally been discontinued: the A9, with the 4-inch iPhone SE, the iPhone 6s, and the best 9.7-inch iPad ever released, the 9.7-inch iPad Pro.

The 10.5-inch iPad Pro has had many complaints even on iPadOS 16, both battery and performance-wise. We’ll see what iPadOS 17 does to it... it’s not looking good.

 

[Digitalguy]

Predictably, my favourite chipset ever has finally been discontinued: the A9, with the 4-inch iPhone SE, the iPhone 6s, and the best 9.7-inch iPad ever released, the 9.7-inch iPad Pro.

The 10.5-inch iPad Pro has had many complaints even on iPadOS 16, both battery and performance-wise. We’ll see what iPadOS 17 does to it... it’s not looking good.

Yes and even A9X with 4GB RAM has been discontined. So for this year my predictions proved accurate, and I think that the pattern I mentioned is confirmed. So next year the iPad 6 will be discontinued.
What could be discontinued or not is the A10X, I put in my predictions for iPadOS 18, but this is a bit of a wildcard. We'll see...
Having said that the 10.5 is just as smooth as it has ever been on iPadOS 16. Battery life is affected by so many factors that it's hard to tell, but performance looks to me just as good as on IOS 12 or iPadOS 13. I am relatively confident it will be smooth on iPadOS 17 too. There is not much new stuff in the new OS..

 

[FeliApple]

Yes and even A9X with 4GB RAM has been discontined. So for this year my predictions proved accurate, and I think that the pattern I mentioned is confirmed. So next year the iPad 6 will be discontinued.
What could be discontinued or not is the A10X, I put in my predictions for iPadOS 18, but this is a bit of a wildcard. We'll see...
Having said that the 10.5 is just as smooth as it has ever been on iPadOS 16. Battery life is affected by so many factors that it's hard to tell, but performance looks to me just as good as on IOS 12 or iPadOS 13. I am relatively confident it will be smooth on iPadOS 17 too. There is not much new stuff in the new OS..

Apple has generally relied on chipset for discontinuation, but we’ve always had the question of whether the 4GB of RAM in the 1st-gen 12.9-inch iPad Pro would give it one more year, especially after both siblings of the 2nd-gen iPad Pro got 4GB of RAM. Correctly I think, Apple chose not to support the larger brother of my favourite iPad.

Well, hopefully at least performance is decent. The battery life numbers I’ve seen have been very poor. Performance is far more difficult to gauge, I haven’t tried it myself.

My 9.7-inch iPad Pro is exactly at the middle of the support line (iOS 12, albeit forced by Apple out of iOS 9 in 2019), and I’m happy with it. I can accept this being its final performance and battery life standard. It isn’t perfect like it was on iOS 9, but it’s good enough for me, and I’m pretty intolerant to these issues as I’ve shown throughout the years I’ve been talking about this.

 

[Digitalguy]

Apple has generally relied on chipset for discontinuation, but we’ve always had the question of whether the 4GB of RAM in the 1st-gen 12.9-inch iPad Pro would give it one more year, especially after both siblings of the 2nd-gen iPad Pro got 4GB of RAM.

Apple is now using the year of release as a cut-off for the base iPad (which has older chips) and for the iPhone, giving 6 years to both iPhones and base iPads (this year any iPad and iPhone from 2017 was removed from support).
As an example, A12 iPhone XS from 2018 should lose support next year, while any iPad with A12 should lose support 2 years later in 2026 (since the iPad 8 came in 2020 with that chip).
A12X should last at least as much as the A12 or even a year more (we'll see how Apple treats those enhanced chips). A12Z should get a couple of years more thanks to the additional RAM and to it coming 18 later than A12X.

 

[rui no onna]

Based on current patterns the base iPad has 6 years of updates (unless the iPad 5 is not dropped this year, which I doubt), while the air and the pro have 8 (air 2 and first gen pro). So I made a chart with future OS updates and supported devices.
My prediction is that the pro will move to 9-10 years from A12X, with the Air and mini staying probably at 8-9 years of updates (we’ll know about iPadOS 17 very soon...)
While Apple will ultimately decide, I think that's a reasonable prediction and I hope this can be of help to people wondering how long their device will be supported, but feel free to share your comments.

iPadOS version	Year	Base iPad (year of release)	Air / Mini (year of release)	Pro (year of release)
iPadOS 17	2023-2024	From iPad 6 A10 2018 (2GB RAM)	Air 3 / Mini 5 A12 from 2019	A10X 2017
iPadOS 18	2024-2025	From iPad 7 A10 2019 (3GB RAM)	Air 3 / Mini 5 A12 from 2019	A12X 2018
iPadOS 19	2026-2027	From iPad 8 A12 2020	Air 4 (A14) 2020 / Mini 6 A15 2021	A12X 2018 / A12Z 2020 (6GB RAM)
iPadOS 20	2027-2028	From iPad 9 A13 2021	Air 4 (A14) 2020 / Mini 6 A15 2021	A12Z 2020 (6GB RAM)
iPadOS 21	2028-2029	From iPad 10 A14 2022	Air 4 (A14) 2020 / Mini 6 A15 2021	A12Z 2020 (6GB RAM) / M1 2021
iPadOS 22	2029-2030	X (no newer base iPad yet, probably iPad 11)	Air 5 M1 2022 / Mini 6 A15 2021	M1 2021
iPadOS 23	2030-2031	X (no newer base iPad yet, probably iPad 12)	Air 5 M1 2022 / Mini 7	M1 2021
iPadOS 24	2031-2032	X (no newer base iPad yet, prbably iPad 13)	Air 5 M1 2022 / Air 6 M2 / Mini 7	M1 2021 / M2 2022

iPadOS 19 should be 2025-2026 and the rest of the years moved down.