RAM memory price spikes and fluctuations

[tennisproha]

CT2K8G3S160BM

That is the model number of the memory I've been trying to buy for like a year now. It hasn't been a priority so I've been occasionally tracking the price, waiting for it to come down further. It hit bottom this past June at $43.99. Spring and Summer of 2016 the prices fluctuated around $40s - $50s. Then in the Fall of 2016 it spiked up to around around the $80s. This week it's spiked up further to $100s to $130s.

Here's a visual:
https://keepa.com/#!product/1-B008LTBJFW
Select all for range to see the full price history.

When it was in the $50s this past summer, I thought I'd wait just a little longer for it to drop a bit further before I bought it lol. Now 6 months later it's almost 3x the price!

What in the world is going on?!

Someone please explain this to me b/c it makes no sense whatsoever. Why has it skyrocketed in price? Should I wait now in the hope of it cycling down now?

 

[campyguy]

IMHO buy when you're comfortable with a price and it's not going down anytime soon…

I read some of the market rags, being an owner of a company with a bunch of PCs to keep running. One of the "events" that I'm aware of was the explosion of the The Samsung Xi’an plant last summer, producers of 3D-NAND Flash and I'm guessing a reason why Samsung SSD prices are staying high - like when the price of oil goes up, the price of gas everywhere follows pretty much the same day and stays that way (yes, an oversimplification); one of my vendors told me to stock up on future needs, and she has been pretty much right, and Hynix and Micron jacked their prices within a few days of that explosion and they have only gone up since. You'd probably find more on this and other related factors on Newegg's business blog…

The other related matter that I'm aware of is some of the manufacturers have started switching to DDR4 flash, now that newer smartphones are using DDR4 memory, and server memory; I can get server memory at about the same price now as last summer. DDR3 flash manufacturing capacity has been phased to DDR4 manufacturing capacity for the upcoming PC, new smartphones, and servers. That, and the weather over eastern Asia has been nasty, leading to plenty of power outages - my brother gave up on a vacation in December to Japan/China, saying it was windy, cold, and rainy for days and the power kept cutting out.

My vendor related that she expected the prices of memory - RAM and SSDs - to drop by now. The guy taking office in DC keeps making threats about trade tariffs, and I'm guessing that bit isn't helping much here either.

 

[Daniel Reed]

This is normal, it happens for most products.

The price curve goes down as major demand goes down,
but then goes back up as legacy demand outweighs supply.

Its the classic supply and demand formula.

 

[tennisproha]

IMHO buy when you're comfortable with a price and it's not going down anytime soon…

Thanks for the insight. I appreciate it. Intangibles causing the price to rise does make sense. But as far as it rising due to the transition to DDR4, I wouldn't have expected the rise to be so drastic. I would've thought it would rise a bit and then be discontinued. But this particular memory still seems to be quite popular so idk what has happened since the holidays for it to rise $40 or so.

 

[campyguy]

I appreciate it.

You're welcome. FWIW, you could sign up for daily deal codes with Frys - I'd forgotten about the two emails I get every day and skim; there's RAM being discounted once or twice every week - and not just the generic stuff. A for instance, a few months ago they had a sale on 512GB Samsung 850 Pro SSDs (although that one was in-store only, most are either in-store or online) at $177, limit 3. I bought 3, and I know I can't beat that anywhere - the sale price was $209, and the daily code knocked another $32 off. A reference is also the Slickdeals.net home page - they'll include just about everyone, including Frys. Cheers!