RBC Capital Markets Survey

[KPOM]

RBC conducted a survey of 6000 Apple customers. Apparently 11% plan to buy a watch and another 24% are undecided.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/would-you-buy-apple-watch-most-say-no-2014-09-17?siteid=yhoof2

That actually seems like a high number to me. This could sell in tens of millions.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

Did they inform the surveyees that it starts at $349 for the 38 mm Sport model? This changes the equation by quite a large margin.

 

[DanCorleone]

It won't sell well at all. They didn't get it right. There is no critical app. People will not spend that kind of money on a product that will be completely obsolete in ~3 years. It isn't that big a deal financially for a company of Apple's size. They probably will get it right eventually.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

People will not spend that kind of money on a product that will be completely obsolete in ~3 years.

It won't be completely obsolete in 3 years. People are still using iPhones older than 3 years like the 4 and 3GS. Sure it may not be supported to do more but it'll still be usable.

 

[DanCorleone]

It won't be completely obsolete in 3 years. People are still using iPhones older than 3 years like the 4 and 3GS. Sure it may not be supported to do more but it'll still be usable.

Like the original iPhone with "The Edge" and any iPhone with 3G? The original iPhone compared to the iPhone 4 (3 years later) was obsolete- except you still had a phone, calculator and Wi-Fi on the original. The iWatch lacks such killer apps. Since the Watch won't be coming out until 2015, I can't even imagine what will be out in 2018, but if Apple hits on the right formula for the Watch, then I think the original will be obsoleted. The big difference is that with the original iPhone, Apple finally hit the right formula for a smartphone with onscreen keyboard. It immediately made all other such phones obsolete. That's what will happen to this Apple Watch once somebody hits the right formula, (presumably Apple).

 

[KPOM]

It won't sell well at all. They didn't get it right. There is no critical app. People will not spend that kind of money on a product that will be completely obsolete in ~3 years. It isn't that big a deal financially for a company of Apple's size. They probably will get it right eventually.

The people willing to drop $5k on an Edition (assuming John Gruber is right) are buying jewelery that happens to have a smart watch inside. They won't be upgrading because the S2 has a faster GPU than the S1. They'll be buying second watches or just waiting until they get their next bonus check. That said, they might be attracted to a thinner design or better battery life. The $350 Sport watch will be the "throwaway" model that sells in higher volumes.