MP All Models Realistically when could a revised/new Mac Pro be announced?

[sn1p3r845]

I wasn't ready to buy the new Mac Pro in 2019 when it was released, but I'm basically credit card in hand waiting now. My poor trashcan is struggling and I don't think it makes sense to buy a refurb 2019. With the recent rumours coming out surrounding the "mac pro mini" and Intel Ice Lake CPUs, is there an event they could announce these coming up? I understand Apple loves to leave us in the dark but there should be some news soon, or did the new W6000 GPU modules signal we're stuck with this version for awhile? I, like many others, was expecting something at WWDC. Yes, I know that nobody can actually know but usually there are hints that help predict the roadmap.

 

[goMac]

Ice Lake Xeons just "launched" in the last few weeks. It's going to take some time for them to be available in volume. And then at some point afterwards Apple will update.

The support for Ice Lake Xeon's in Monterey implies that new Mac Pros might not launch until after Monterey.

 

[sn1p3r845]

Ice Lake Xeons just "launched" in the last few weeks. It's going to take some time for them to be available in volume. And then at some point afterwards Apple will update.

The support for Ice Lake Xeon's in Monterey implies that new Mac Pros might not launch until after Monterey.

Right, so based on this we're looking at a late 2022 launch? By that time I was expecting Apple Silicon to take over. I'm not expecting Apple to have both M and Intel flavor Mac Pros available to choose from.

 

[scottrngr]

I don't know what you use your Mac Pro for, but an M1 mini is more than enough to tide you over until a newer MP comes out.

 

[sn1p3r845]

I don't know what you use your Mac Pro for, but an M1 mini is more than enough to tide you over until a newer MP comes out.

raw video editing, heavy motion graphics, light VFX & 3D, grading in Resolve, etc. I normally have some kind of project rendering while I'm not at the machine using it, so it's safe to say I abuse my machines. I run four displays and have a 4-bay raid via TB2. My trash cans ports are maxed out. The reason why I also need to plan this out is because I know I'll need a new raid system that works well on whichever route I go. PC has been looking like an exciting option but I feel like I won't be happy with Windows overall.

 

[fatespawn]

10 years? Joking. Kind of. Has apple shown an interest in the pro/pro-sumer market recently? I haven't heard any rumors or announcements that would lead me to believe they care about updating. Maybe tweaks to the existing line?

 

[sn1p3r845]

10 years? Joking. Kind of. Has apple shown an interest in the pro/pro-sumer market recently? I haven't heard any rumors or announcements that would lead me to believe they care about updating. Maybe tweaks to the existing line?

tweaks/refresh is what I'm looking for whether that's the new M chips or new Xeons. The new graphics cards are very attractive but not enough for me to commit $20k on a 2019 machine.

 

[TECK]

I personally believe Apple is shifting focus onto ARM based hardware. Intel is a dying beed IMO, just look at the performance comparison for last five years between Intel and ARM chips.

 

[rondocap]

raw video editing, heavy motion graphics, light VFX & 3D, grading in Resolve, etc. I normally have some kind of project rendering while I'm not at the machine using it, so it's safe to say I abuse my machines. I run four displays and have a 4-bay raid via TB2. My trash cans ports are maxed out. The reason why I also need to plan this out is because I know I'll need a new raid system that works well on whichever route I go. PC has been looking like an exciting option but I feel like I won't be happy with Windows overall.

I would say those things you need it for are perfect for the current Mac Pro, with upgraded GPUs like the W6800x Duo. I understand not wanting to sink in that much cheese on an older system, but the only possible update will be the W3300 Xeon- which won't benefit your workflow much since it's heavy GPU based.

The Apple Silicon Mac Pro is likely still a long time away, I doubt they will be able to produce the GPU power comparable to what is available today that easily.

Have you considered buying a refurb? You can save a lot and still have a nice and new rig.

 

[Grumply]

It seems to me, like we won't see anything before the release of Monterey at the earliest. If you need it now, you need it. I'd be looking at used/refurbed 7,1s (and then doing any additional upgrades yourself).

They can now be built-up for vastly less than the retail costs (I just bought a pair of 6800XTs for mine, for 10% less than a single W6800 MPX module costs - and that's 2.3x the computing power theoretically). And they're extremely powerful machines.

Also, keep in mind that the newer Ice Lake Xeons are reportedly going to offer an approximately 20% performance lift over the current CPUs. And while that's nothing to shake your fist at, it's not really an earth shattering improvement either. So 7,1s with up to date GPUs are going to remain beastly performers for many years yet.

 

[goMac]

Right, so based on this we're looking at a late 2022 launch? By that time I was expecting Apple Silicon to take over. I'm not expecting Apple to have both M and Intel flavor Mac Pros available to choose from.

End of 2021, early 2022 probably.

If it's in Monterey betas now more likely end of 2021.

Mark Gurman has been the one leaking details about the Ice Lake Mac Pro, and while he said it was coming, I don't think he gave a specific time frame.

 

[arche3]

So much for 2 years transition???

 

[ZombiePhysicist]

It seems to me, like we won't see anything before the release of Monterey at the earliest. If you need it now, you need it. I'd be looking at used/refurbed 7,1s (and then doing any additional upgrades yourself).

They can now be built-up for vastly less than the retail costs (I just bought a pair of 6800XTs for mine, for 10% less than a single W6800 MPX module costs - and that's 2.3x the computing power theoretically). And they're extremely powerful machines.

Also, keep in mind that the newer Ice Lake Xeons are reportedly going to offer an approximately 20% performance lift over the current CPUs. And while that's nothing to shake your fist at, it's not really an earth shattering improvement either. So 7,1s with up to date GPUs are going to remain beastly performers for many years yet.

I agree with all of that but there is one earth shaking difference. It will come with PCI-e 4, and that will make a huge difference with regard to SSDs and particularly with RAID SSDs.

 

[ZombiePhysicist]

Oh, and to the OP, there is a good chance the new machine will be announced after the new operating system is announced. So IMO there is a chance it's announced this winter. Anywhere from September to December. With like 5 units actually shipping before new year so they can say it came out this year.

 

[kvic]

12 Nov - Big Sur 11.0 released
26 Apr - Big Sur 11.3 released with RX 6800 XT/RX 6900 XT driver support
9 Jun - AMD released Radeon Pro W6800/W6600
3 Aug - Apple released 6800/6900 MPX

It doesn't mean CPU will follow similar trajectory but you could guess.

8 Jun - 'Rumor/leak/discovery' spread that Monterey will support Ice Lake
29 Jul - Intel released Ice Lake Xeon W-3300 series

+ two months

Oct/Nov - Ice Lake Mac Pro with the release of Monterey 12.0?

The timing also fits a 2-year gap since MacPro7,1 release. Leave sufficient gap for the new half-size Mac Pro with Apple chips in the first-half of 2022.

Then Apple could declare in WWDC2022 they've completed the transition in 'two years' as envisioned by Supreme Leader Tim Cook the Great. The most powerful x86 Mac ever released in the next decade lives on together happily with its younger siblings.

+ another year (i.e. two years after the Ice Lake Mac Pro refresh)

The final replacement may (or may never) arrive with Apple chips. That's around 2023. Fast forward. By around 2025+ x86 MacOS support dropped publicly.

Personally I hope by 2025 high-end AMD/Intel processors outperform Apple chips by a significant margin to keep Apple checked. Perhaps prolong MacOS support on x86.

 

[Grumply]

I agree with all of that but there is one earth shaking difference. It will come with PCI-e 4, and that will make a huge difference with regard to SSDs and particularly with RAID SSDs.

That's very true. That said, the 7,000-10,000 MB/s that can pretty easily be reached with RAIDs on the current PCIe 3.0 - is going to remain blazingly fast for many, MANY years to come. So while it's always going to be nicer to go faster. I don't think many people would have much to complain about, if they were stuck with those kinds of PCIe 3.0 for the next few years.

 

[randy85]

I have no idea but I think it'll be a new Intel version late this year with those new Xeons and PCI-E 4.0.

I might consider a refurb 2019 and upgrade the heck out of it. Use the savings to max out on W6800X Duos.

You could, if you wanted to, upgrade to the 2021/22 model once the supply is available and take the MPX modules to that system.

 

[Grilled Cheese]

tweaks/refresh is what I'm looking for whether that's the new M chips or new Xeons. The new graphics cards are very attractive but not enough for me to commit $20k on a 2019 machine.

I’m in a similar boat. Now that new GPUs are available, if new CPU’s and PCIe 4 come along then I’ll be diving in to a new Mac Pro. The current model is tempting but it’s hard to commit when updates may be imminent.

 

[ZombiePhysicist]

That's very true. That said, the 7,000-10,000 MB/s that can pretty easily be reached with RAIDs on the current PCIe 3.0 - is going to remain blazingly fast for many, MANY years to come. So while it's always going to be nicer to go faster. I don't think many people would have much to complain about, if they were stuck with those kinds of PCIe 3.0 for the next few years.

I have the 7,1. 28 core. There is need vs want fight here. Sure, I could get a 16lane card that would give me 14000MB/sec throughput. But, that could be a 28000MB/s throughput with PCI4. Do I 'need' any of that. Not really. Do I want the ability to have that. Yes. To me this machine is all about the ability to have that. PCI4 is a big step up. And PCI5 will be another huge step up. And if I understand it, PCI6 also intends to double throughput. I dont know how long they can keep doubling throughput, but each step, IMO, is huge. At some point, we get SSDs that operate at near RAM speed, and that allows for very fundamental changes in operating systems and tasks.

So I agree, you can do great with PCI3, but it's old, and psychologically, it feels wrong that I have this big hunk of iron with this ancient bus. PCI4 is only marginally better, and frankly, I'm annoyed PCI5 isnt out, since it's been ratified for a while.

That IS one place where apple could leap frog the industry. PCI4 is only now coming on line because the intel/amd chipsets are just now getting there. Apple could skip it and go straight to PCI5 with their chips, and that would a fundamental advantage.

 

[deconstruct60]

12 Nov - Big Sur 11.0 released
26 Apr - Big Sur 11.3 released with RX 6800 XT/RX 6900 XT driver support
9 Jun - AMD released Radeon Pro W6800/W6600
3 Aug - Apple released 6800/6900 MPX

It doesn't mean CPU will follow similar trajectory but you could guess.

8 Jun - 'Rumor/leak/discovery' spread that Monterey will support Ice Lake
29 Jul - Intel released Ice Lake Xeon W-3300 series

+ two months

Oct/Nov - Ice Lake Mac Pro with the release of Monterey 12.0?

More likely Nov/Dec 2021. Not sure why Apple would want to ship a hard core pro machine with a x.0 OS release.


Apple released an "Ice Lake" MBP 13" 4-port model back in mid-2020.

MacBook Pro - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I highly doubt Apple is going to put much effort at all into the AI/ML opcode additions in the Xeon W3300 series that the Core iX 10xxxx don't have. Likewise for the AVX-512 differences ( Apple is completely ignoring AVX in Rosetta so they aren't putting effort into writing more stuff that can't be translated. )

macOS has had to deal with the baseline "Ice Lake " ( Gen 10) microarchitecture for over a year at this point. This "new" CPU shouldn't be as big of a hurdle to jump over as the GPU graphics were ( RDNA -> RDNA2 which actually is a baseline architectural change ).


Right now though is a bad time to release a new Mac Pro. Apple has all of the WWDC betas in flight. Bug fixes on the current macOS/iOS/iPadOS in flight ... Yet another system at the moment likely won't getting the proper attention to detail that the Mac Pro deserves. ( few want to deploy a flaky OS into a critical production workflow. )
If Apple is sane they shouldn't want the Mac Pro to ship with macOS 12.0 ; extremely likely that 12.0 is going to ship with a short list of known substantive glitches. ( Apple's track record of last 3-4 Fall releases speaks for itself. A flurry of "oh yeah that's is broke" fixes over the first several months. )


Catch 22 for Apple when they drop the volume of their Intel CPU buys off the table then they probably drop out of being a top-tier customer for Intel with "front of the line" access to limited volume products. The fewer Intel CPUs that Apple buys , the more to the "back of the line" they are likely going to get shifted. Intel is going to sell a decent volume to Apple over time, but they aren't going to brush off Boxx, Lenovo, Dell, HP if they want to place orders for W-3300 series. I doubt Apple gets volume shipments for these chips before late October or so. They can't make completed systems if don't have CPUs to stuff in them. Then they have to ramp the factory for 3-4 weeks so have enough inventory for the intial demand bubble. So likely well into November on that front also.

The timing also fits a 2-year gap since MacPro7,1 release. Leave sufficient gap for the new half-size Mac Pro with Apple chips in the first-half of 2022.

Then Apple could declare in WWDC2022 they've completed the transition in 'two years' as envisioned by Supreme Leader Tim Cook the Great. The most powerful x86 Mac ever released in the next decade lives on together happily with its younger siblings.

+ another year (i.e. two years after the Ice Lake Mac Pro refresh)

I suspect that "completed transition" is going to be a bit of "move the goalpost". Complete the transition is going to be have a new M-series Mac in each Mac product category. It probably won't be that they have completely turned off all x86_64 system sales in 2 years. Depending upon how Apple addresses the mulitple GPU solution space this update Mac Pro probably would continue on for years if the M-series macOS can't handle anything other than one GPU for the same multiple years.

The final replacement may (or may never) arrive with Apple chips. That's around 2023. Fast forward. By around 2025+ x86 MacOS support dropped publicly.

That is probably more on the '+' side than 2025. Apple still has the Intel iMac 27" , 4-port MBP 13" , MBP 16" , upper Mini for active sale. That "de-support" clock for macOS x86 isn't going to start until apple discontinues those systems completely. The iMac seems to be sliding into 2020.

And while the M1 (1st gen) systems are faster than the last iteration of the x86_64 Macs , most of those x86_64 Macs are "fast enough" for their users for many, many years into the future. There is lots of inertia there; for more than what PPC had back in 2005-2006.

If the Mac Pro 2021-2022 is out there 'dangling' as the last hold out they make start the clock before it hits withdrawn from sale date. However, if Apple stops with the "half sized" Mac Pro replacement , they probably won't pull the plug early.

Personally I hope by 2025 high-end AMD/Intel processors outperform Apple chips by a significant margin to keep Apple checked. Perhaps prolong MacOS support on x86.

IMHO, highly doubtful Apple is going to chase them in the "core count" wars. Apple will probably try to have a high overlap in tracking their workstation offerings. The more single user on more mainstream "pro" A/V/Media stuff focused than in top end HPC or top end AI/ML.

Apple is probably going to sit in the "do best you can under 64 cores " limit. Farm more specialized workloads they are targeting out to specialized cores ( NPU , GPU , AMX , etc. ) . That isn't going to keep Apple "checked". Apple is going to spend more effort targeting the subset that want to hold onto (and not try to do everything for everybody at the top end. )

2025 AMD/Intel will probably be more competitive with M-series of the same timeframe, but very doubtful that is going to convince Apple to continue on the path of marrying at T-series to an x86 processor as an alternative. Apple's lead on process fab access will probably sag over time ( AMD isn't as "poor" anymore and Intel also not poor and cleans their fab house up a bit ( or a lot ) . ). Apple doesn't exclusively own the tech, they just write big checks. There is no huge barrier to entry to writing a big check if have the money in the bank.

 

[deconstruct60]

It seems to me, like we won't see anything before the release of Monterey at the earliest. If you need it now, you need it. I'd be looking at used/refurbed 7,1s (and then doing any additional upgrades yourself).

Even refurbed the high core count BTO configurations are a bad option for the intermediate term. Apple picked Intel options that have a sky high "> 1TB RAM" tax on them (and then Apple slaps their 20+% on top). Refurb/used really isn't gonig to offset just how sky high that "tax" is.

If folks are willing to chuck the warranty and side step the RAM tax with DIY upgrade then perhaps.

"need it now" would be "need" as in losing tons of money if don't have them. Not "my workday would be incrementally shorter and much less annoying" or "need to feel more powerful with big iron under the desk" Otherwise this is pretty much 'wait' window that probably is only 3-4 months long.

They can now be built-up for vastly less than the retail costs (I just bought a pair of 6800XTs for mine, for 10% less than a single W6800 MPX module costs - and that's 2.3x the computing power theoretically). And they're extremely powerful machines.

Apple's W6xxx series MPX modules do seem to have some of the 2020-2021 GPU shortage driven price inflation baked into their prices. Either Apple is pricing these to "fail" over time or they painted themselves into another corner (semi custom chips and/or greed and/or nuking their GPU partner relationship ).

Also, keep in mind that the newer Ice Lake Xeons are reportedly going to offer an approximately 20% performance lift over the current CPUs. And while that's nothing to shake your fist at, it's not really an earth shattering improvement either. So 7,1s with up to date GPUs are going to remain beastly performers for many years yet.

The bigger issues is likely going to be that the W-3300 series at the > 18 core count levels offer a $4-6K price discount in Mac Pro systems. Probably won't do much for the entry level Mac Pro prices but the top 1/2 (maybe 1/4) of the line up should see a relatively massive price change.

Which I guess can be re-dumped on sky high priced W6xxx series cards. Kind of jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire situation. but if don't need the W6xxx cards then it will probably be a big savings.

The current > 18 core price up against current ( soon to be old) Threadripper is bad. Apple needs a huge price cut to be competitive once the Zen 3 based Threadripper systems ship in volume. Those 2019 prices will just down right laughable at that point ( "bad" now, but things are about to get worse over the intermediate term. ) . I suspect Apple is going to try to get something out of the door before the new Threadripper can go to volume in early 2022.

 

[sn1p3r845]

I agree with all of that but there is one earth shaking difference. It will come with PCI-e 4, and that will make a huge difference with regard to SSDs and particularly with RAID SSDs.

I didn't even think about PCI-e 4. If they update the xeon's at the end of 2021, they'll have pci-e 4 right? I think that might be a bigger thing to hold out for than anything else right now. I can (probably) make it to the new year on my trashan.

 

[arche3]

Need new intel mac pro w pcie4. Now. I'll wait 4 years for the apple silicon to be ironed out in terms of 3rd party software.

 

[kvic]

I didn't even think about PCI-e 4. If they update the xeon's at the end of 2021, they'll have pci-e 4 right? I think that might be a bigger thing to hold out for than anything else right now. I can (probably) make it to the new year on my trashan.

W-3300 series indeed comes with PCIe 4.0, for example, 32-core Xeon W-3365.

Personally I won't expect PCIe 4.0 something to be excited about. Workloads such as 4K video production (perhaps the most common & demanding workload a Mac Pro faces in daily operations) could hardly see benefit both GPU & storage performance wise.

PCIe 4.0 is a nice bump in the spec. Due to prolonged lifespan of v3.0, PCIe 4.0 will be very short lived and be replaced by PCIe 5.0 in workstations in 2023. PCIe 5.0 is something to be very excited about in add-in card markets/applications in general. IMO, PCIe 5.0 is a huge uncertainty if Apple will tit-for-tat follow the PC industry trend.

One of the immediate benefits of the new Ice Lake Mac Pro is the memory sub-system, both capacity & performance wise. All SKUs come with 8 memory channels (instead of 6 in MacPro7,1) and support max capacity of 4TB (instead of 0.7-1TB in MacPro7,1). Not only that. It also comes with DDR4 3200 memory (instead of DDR4 2666-2999 in MacPro7,1), the last and fastest standard DDR4 DIMMs. So added together people should see immediate benefit in memory intensive applications.

One more thing.. I'm guessing the refreshed Mac Pro will come with an exclusive option of the mystically absent W6900X Duo, and support for next-gen & highest-end AMD Radeon RX 7000 series GPUs. Something to be very excited about.

So I believe MacPro7,1 will depreciate a little faster as the refreshed Mac Pro will be quite interesting, definitely not boring. I guess this is good news for a lot of people on this sub-forum as most seem to be tinkerers who do not need the horse power of a latest & highest-end Mac Pro.

 

[ZombiePhysicist]

W-3300 series indeed comes with PCIe 4.0, for example, 32-core Xeon W-3365.

Personally I won't expect PCIe 4.0 something to be excited about. Workloads such as 4K video production (perhaps the most common & demanding workload a Mac Pro faces in daily operations) could hardly see benefit both GPU & storage performance wise.

PCIe 4.0 is a nice bump in the spec. Due to prolonged lifespan of v3.0, PCIe 4.0 will be very short lived and be replaced by PCIe 5.0 in workstations in 2023. PCIe 5.0 is something to be very excited about in add-in card markets/applications in general. IMO, PCIe 5.0 is a huge uncertainty if Apple will tit-for-tat follow the PC industry trend.

One of the immediate benefits of the new Ice Lake Mac Pro is the memory sub-system, both capacity & performance wise. All SKUs come with 8 memory channels (instead of 6 in MacPro7,1) and support max capacity of 4TB (instead of 0.7-1TB in MacPro7,1). Not only that. It also comes with DDR4 3200 memory (instead of DDR4 2666-2999 in MacPro7,1), the last and fastest standard DDR4 DIMMs. So added together people should see immediate benefit in memory intensive applications.

One more thing.. I'm guessing the refreshed Mac Pro will come with an exclusive option of the mystically absent W6900X Duo, and support for next-gen & highest-end AMD Radeon RX 7000 series GPUs. Something to be very excited about.

So I believe MacPro7,1 will depreciate a little faster as the refreshed Mac Pro will be quite interesting, definitely not boring. I guess this is good news for a lot of people on this sub-forum as most seem to be tinkerers who do not need the horse power of a latest & highest-end Mac Pro.

This is illogical. Pci4 doubles band with but isn’t important but When pci5 doubles performance it will be important.

Disagree. Both are giant bumps and both are super important. Pci6 will again double throughput and will be hugely important. Ssd speeds alone make it important. Now it isn’t clear what will happen with pci7, and one wonders could they can possibly keep doubling performance like this forever, or will we hit a plateaued.