Return My MacPro?

[jeremey]

Hello everyone!

Since all the talk about Apple transitioning to ARM processors is really kicking off now I’ve been trying to do some research regarding the future for the current generation of MacPro - does anyone have any idea as to what the roadmap will be? Will this be something owners can “upgrade” to through purchasing new hardware, motherboard, whatever?

My main concern at this point is I just purchased my MacPro and can still return it...should I? I still have both of my iMacs in the office (purchased in 2015 and early 2019) that I could fall back to.

Obviously, the motivation for purchasing the MacPro in the first place was upgradeability and expandability in the hopes of getting 6-10 year service-life out of it but the ARM transition may squash that.

I work in video / TV production as a freelancer and own very small company so I try to make solid investments in gear. I do completely realize tech (computers, cameras and the rest) changes fast and that’s just part of it but I’m in a unique position to return this system now IF that’s the smartest play.

So I’d really appreciate some feedback from others who are much better acquainted with these sorts of transitions and better informed / have an idea of what the future holds for MacPro owners in particular.

 

[verticalines]

I'll put it this way: computers in your job is all used to generate revenue. Apple's long-term profit-driven ideology honestly does not matter to you unless it impacts your ability to continue now or immediately thwarts performance of any existing system negatively (as in full-on not supporting x86 in future versions of FCP which I find unlikely).

If you need a machine now for work and the Mac Pro ticks all the boxes, go with that. Revisit this in two or three years when your hardware asset has been depreciated and you're ready to change if it offers a solid path forward. Otherwise keep it around and revisit the future in another half-decade. Maybe it's best to consider the leasing program instead of outright purchasing if you're weary of holding onto an end-of-life platform with nowhere to go.

You'll still get the same service life you mentioned. Is your 2015 iMac useless when ARM is the main option sold in say 2022? No, MacOS will support x86 for a good while, mostly through 2022. If they drop it sooner, you're just stuck on whatever version is compatible and whatever software is still usable. You can't get newer versions but the old apps still run--they're not like time-coded to blow up or artificially decrease in performance.

 

[jeremey]

That is an outstanding reply and I really appreciate how thought out it is.

You are absolutely correct in the fact that it will perform the same down the road; much like a camera (given the equipment properly maintained, wear and tear, etc.) will still produce as good an image as it ever did - the “target” just constantly moves/advances with technology.

I guess my biggest concern was just losing the ability to update software to the “latest & greatest” features - granted performance hits will still happen due to optimization for the “latest & greatest” hardware as well.

I didn’t max out the specs on my system either and I doubt Intel is going anywhere in the next 10 years so I will still have the ability to upgrade processors, add RAM, GPUs and all of that...so I suppose as long as the software developers don’t jump ship on the Intel Macs I’ve still got a lot of miles on this system.

 

[verticalines]

x86 isn't stalling nor dying out. If anything, AMD has embarrassed Intel and that deep-pocketed behemoth is not going to perish quietly. There's still like 80% of the world running Windows and those developers will still be moving forward there. Expect sub-5nm EUV processes and 3D stacking to be the next wave of changes that could bring x86 cores closers in line with these power-first designs of ARM. Can ARM scale up faster than x86 can power down? In reality, idle wattage is pretty close for all of them given the same manufacturing processes and optimizations but peak load is the difference right now.

I can't really see Apple improving their own SoC graphics so much that it'll outrun a dual Vega in strict computing power. Most likely a lot of that future performance will come from accelerators like what they offer now in the Afterburner card but etched right into each SoC like the current A-series chips. So both platforms would remain functional but at some point the x86 is simply unable to overcome the benefits from onboard accelerators (assuming they don't offer a drop-in upgrade). General brute compute force will fall behind efficient focused accelerators.

It's actually great if you're wholly entrenched in Macs but not so if you run things that aren't up to par. Or run a program that the developer has decided is not worth porting forward. I think for a large number of users, this won't be an issue but there's odd cases that can throw off whole workflows.

You should be fine to get another 5 years easy assuming Apple isn't depreciating graphics support moving forward. CPU might be a dead end as Intel moves to new sockets and you're stuck (Xeons are not always cheap to upgrade now or later). But that's not so different than a potential unupgradable Apple chip. There's not enough information to say much now so once the first releases are tested, we should get a better sense of possibilities and limitations on the ARM platform.

I'd watch the development of Maya to ARM. If that one is executed right, then the future has a good shot as it's one of the more intensive programs that's not from Apple. If it's stuck in emulation for awhile, I'd be hesitant to say other developers will be eagerly lining up to convert everything over. There's a breaking point financially for potentially little gain if there aren't enough new users to justify the developments.