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Sales Predictions For 3G on Friday

L

Lotus Esprit V8

macrumors regular
Original poster
Apr 18, 2010
126
0
New England
By not making the iPad available in Apple stores until 5 P.M. on the 30th, Apple engineering a lower first day sales number for the the 3G release.

Including pre-orders, I would estimate that total 3G sales for the release day will be in the 150,000 to 175,000 range.

Any other opinions?
 
Lotus Esprit V8 said:
By not making the iPad available in Apple stores until 5 P.M. on the 30th, Apple engineering a lower first day sales number for the the 3G release.

Including pre-orders, I would estimate that total 3G sales for the release day will be in the 150,000 to 175,000 range.

Any other opinions?
Click to expand...

I am tempted to think that there could be double that on pre-orders alone. But I really have no idea.
 
antiprotest said:
I am tempted to think that there could be double that on pre-orders alone. But I really have no idea.
Click to expand...

Correct me if I am wrong, but April 3rd saw a 1 day total of 300K, and that included pre-orders. I don't see Friday being anywhere near that, especially since the stores won't be selling them until 5:00 PM and no one knows how much stock Best Buy is actually getting. In any event I think that 175K will be a stretch.
 
Considering the Wifi released on a saturday, isn't 5PM on a friday for the 3G just like a saturday release only 18 hours early? I think based solely on the time of release, we can just as easily guess that the demand is expected to be greater than the Wifi.
 
mklnk said:
Considering the Wifi released on a Saturday, isn't 5PM on a friday for the 3G just like a saturday release only 18 hours early? I think based solely on the time of release, we can just as easily guess that the demand is expected to be greater than the Wifi.
Click to expand...

Officially they consider the first day from the opening of business to the close of business, not a 24 hour period from 5:pM on Friday to 5:00 PM on Saturday.
 
Lotus Esprit V8 said:
Correct me if I am wrong, but April 3rd saw a 1 day total of 300K, and that included pre-orders. I don't see Friday being anywhere near that, especially since the stores won't be selling them until 5:00 PM and no one knows how much stock Best Buy is actually getting. In any event I think that 175K will be a stretch.
Click to expand...

I have seen several polls, and in every one of them, the most popular units were 64GB 3G and 16GB WIFI only (the most and least expensive), with more people demanding the former than the latter. But of course, these were small polls and there are many variables. So like I said, I don't know.
 
One thing I've learned from waiting in line for every iPhone to date is to generally double the most conservative guesstimate, at least here in NYC, though national sales figures seem to jibe with my experience.

If you estimate there will be 100 people in line on launch day, it will probably be 300. If you think they'll sell half of their store stock, they'll probably sell out. If you think they'll sell 150,000 iPads on launch day, they'll probably sell 300,000.
 
I think the figure will depend how pre-orders are factored in. If you consider in-store sales only, I would say 50,000 to 75,000. If you go with all the pre-orders to date, I would guess around 200,000. An interesting figure will be to consider how many WIFI-only versions will be exchanged.
 
I think most analysts would agree that the 3G version will sell less than the WIFI version. There are many people that got the WIFI version because they simply could not wait for the 3G version. And there are most likely more people who only have a need for WIFI access than those of us who need/want Internet access with it everywhere we go. Furthermore, the 3G is significantly more expensive, and it no longer has the "launch fever" momentum going for it (this forum aside).

Including pre-orders and in-store sales for Friday, I predict 75-100,000 units will be sold. Remember too, the WIFI model may actually get a bit of a boost this weekend. I don't know if Best Buy is holding some WIFI units for the Friday re-launch.... probably not.
 
I don't know...

The main reason I got the iPhone was because my iPod touch was useless in many places without an Internet connection.

I think people are going to like the added convenience of Internet everywhere. The premium isn't much when you're already dropping $500+ on it. Plus, with no contracts it's a no brainer.
 
me2000 said:
I don't know...

The main reason I got the iPhone was because my iPod touch was useless in many places without an Internet connection.
Click to expand...

Same! I live on my school's campus in which is nearly of it has wireless access, but even here I found myself in a place that the wireless didn't reach.
 
Lotus Esprit V8 said:
By not making the iPad available in Apple stores until 5 P.M. on the 30th, Apple engineering a lower first day sales number for the the 3G release.

Including pre-orders, I would estimate that total 3G sales for the release day will be in the 150,000 to 175,000 range.

Any other opinions?
Click to expand...

Umm, 5pm shouldn't change much because a lot of people will have an easy time leaving work early than taking the whole day off. Not to mention since there are no reservations for pickup, most people are likely to have their iPad shipped instead.

The only problem is the shabbat, so there will less Jewish people in line for sure.
 
iPad sales

I feel that the 3G iPad will have a slow start. Many people hate the AT&T data service, which I find okay. People may wait until other carriers create a micro sim with their service. Sprint has 4G I may add :D
 
Zepaw said:
Same! I live on my school's campus in which is nearly of it has wireless access, but even here I found myself in a place that the wireless didn't reach.
Click to expand...

The wireless in my dorm doesn't work with iPods and iPhones (and iPads).. so I was screwed.

Thankfully, I'm moving into an apartment next week!
 
mcdj said:
One thing I've learned from waiting in line for every iPhone to date is to generally double the most conservative guesstimate, at least here in NYC, though national sales figures seem to jibe with my experience.

If you estimate there will be 100 people in line on launch day, it will probably be 300. If you think they'll sell half of their store stock, they'll probably sell out. If you think they'll sell 150,000 iPads on launch day, they'll probably sell 300,000.
Click to expand...
Wait, that doesn't add up. :confused:
 
222 U.S. Apple Stores x 200 units = 44.4K

+

336 Best Buy Stores x 10 units = 3360 (There are 673 Best Buys, but not all sell Apple products. Assume half do for argument, though its probably more).

+

75K online pre-orders

Total:

122K units sold on Day One by conservative estimate. So OP's suggestion of 175K is not far fetched.
 
Applecreep said:
I feel that the 3G iPad will have a slow start. Many people hate the AT&T data service, which I find okay. People may wait until other carriers create a micro sim with their service. Sprint has 4G I may add :D
Click to expand...
So, since you can purchase data or not, on a month by month basis, why would you not buy it now?

Purchase it now, use a month or so of AT&T 3G (or use only WiFi), and then swap the SIM when Sprint or whoever you like gets into the market. I have no clue, but assume that all carriers would be encouraged (SJ..) to follow the same plan (buy what data you want in the months you want).
 
Lotus Esprit V8 said:
By not making the iPad available in Apple stores until 5 P.M. on the 30th, Apple engineering a lower first day sales number for the the 3G release.

Including pre-orders, I would estimate that total 3G sales for the release day will be in the 150,000 to 175,000 range.

Any other opinions?
Click to expand...

antiprotest said:
I am tempted to think that there could be double that on pre-orders alone. But I really have no idea.
Click to expand...

Now they say the 3G launch probably sold 300,000.

So my cautious guess seems to be correct (it was the lower end of what I had in mind), although I thought they were probably going to sell even more than that. I would not be surprised if they had annouced up to 500,000 sold. But 300,000 it is.
 
All I know is I was at the Apple store at Woodfield Mall, (Schaumburg, IL) Saturday mid afternoon and they were completely sold out out of all Ipads except the 16gig Wifi. Good news is I was able to pick up some Apple cases that were flying off the shelves. :)
 
My guess, 100K. And it will take 4 more weeks of sales to match this number (200K total 3Gs sold).
 
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