Samsung's long-rumored entry into the emerging mirrorless interchangeable lens camera market finally became official yesterday:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-10423257-1.html
DPReview has a
hands-on preview.
So, a new lens mount for a camera from a company that has little experience in the DSLR market, beating Canon/Nikon/et al to the punch, sporting a (slightly) larger sensor than its Micro-4/3 competitors. Thoughts?
The sensor is larger enough than u4/3rds (1.5x) that if it's a good one, it'll win all the head-to-heads against it. Samsung has really good retail channels, and if they price it right, they'll probably end up in the 2-3% range in terms of market share in the next 3-4 years. Samsung's in way better financial shape than Olympus and they'll do very well in their home market- maybe as high as 10-15% share in the next 3-4 years. That should give them a good base and enough success to move forward. In the US, price will be their main issue, so we'll have to see where they come out. If they can make this competitive with the u4/3rds in terms of price/performance, it's potentially the stake in Olympus's heart unless Olympus had a very good 2009.
If they don't mess up, I predict they'll pass Pentax in market share in Asia outside of Japan, and possibly world-wide inside of two years. By the time we get the annual results for May (June generally) I think it'll be easier to see how Olympus wil fare- but I get the impression they're (quite like Pentax) still mostly selling into a pool of former Olympus owners, not growing a predominately large share of new-to-the-brand customers.
Personally, I'd rather have APS-C than u4/3, and I'm surprised that Canon and Nikon haven't announced bridge cameras with a current low-end sensor- if Samsung do well, then I expect we'll see the field open up as I can't imagine both companies don't have something they can put into production quickly and that they're not just waffling over lens mount issues. If that comes to pass, then we'll see a whole raft of options and advertising aimed at that segment. If that happens, the u4/3rds players are in for a bumpy ride given both company's volumes in APS-C sensors.
IF we're still headed for DSLR market contraction in 2012 or so, then I think Samsung will weather it. A lot of their global success will depend on how they do in the European market though, and I don't know how that's going to shape out- that still seems to be one region where the Olympus brand still has real strength.