Economies of scale is always a good thing.
They could, but would be better for everyone would be for Microsoft to dictate to Qualcomm to make something specific for their laptops that meets or exceeds it.
It will take Qualcomm a while to get there, and they’ll dictate that Microsoft has to make very strategic investments to get there.
Just to be clear, Apple has been doing this for however many years internally with their own teams. “We’re going to increase your budget to make something that puts Intel to shame”. At the same time Apple has cut throat deals with their partners that essentially says “we’ll invest this amount of money in you to get your manufacturing up to scale. When you get there we get to use it exclusively for this period of time at this cost.”
This is going to happen in some form or another. Look at Ceramic Shield or whatever it’s called. I can all but guarantee you part of that investment said Apple will invest money to do it with Corning, but Corning can only use this for a set period of time.
Tim Cook, I love him to death. He isn’t the visionary Steve Jobs was, but he understands how to get blood out of a rock.
Probably for the next year or two we’ll see the PC side try to figure out how to make their ultra thin and lights run like the new MacBook Air. I used one for my entire work day today with nothing plugged in. I’m use to a MacBook Pro 16, and during conference calls with “all of the services” the fans were loud, and at points there was varying points of it not performing well working. The MacBook Air just performed better, running apps with Rosetta. I figured at the end of the day it would be basically dead. I went to plug it in, and saw there was 38% battery life. The translated Intel code ran just as fast, in some cases faster (longer conversation).
TSMC, if the rumors are true, has given Apple all of the 2 year capacity for 5nm manufacturing. Theres no reason to assume this is true, outside of the fact no one else has 5nm.
It’s important to be honest, and say that Microsoft really took the first move with the Surface Pro X. Microsoft knows this is coming. They clearly didn’t take their foot off the gas when Windows RT died. But more shocking, is that I’ve been running all day today on a MacBook Air with no fan. It was cool to the touch. It’s got 8GB of memory compared to my MacBook Pro 16 that has 16 and the MacBook Air with Apple Silicon wasn’t actively cooled.
Performance for native apps was shocking. Performance on Rosetta apps was on par, if not better. With no active cooling.
My MacBook Pro 16 is sold. I have a MacBook Pro with Apple Silicon with 16GB and 1TB storage is coming. My wife doesn’t use her laptop all the time, but I know I can use her MacBook Air and it just destroys the MacBook Pro 16 with Intel with what I did today. Sustained better than my Intel MacBook Pro.
I’ve heard people complain that the same chipset in all 3 products is weird. If the active cooling in the MacBook Pro Apple Silicon is able to give me that sustained at all points, and with double the memory I’m all in. I’ve spent 24 hours with the Air, but if my assumptions are right, macOS is giving the bulk of the load to high efficiency cores. If my assumption is right, the high performance cores are steady at 30% load. If my assumption is wrong, I should have plugged in halfway through the day. I shouldn’t have had 38% after working all day.
Satya is a very pragmatic business person. He’ll probably make the ask of Apple to get access to the M1. I know whats happening on the early sides of him pressing the matter already. Microsoft is offering to help LOB (Line of Business) applications to work on Windows on ARM. Satya will look at what he controls first which is the software and funding (term usually used to mean Microsoft helps), get control of the supply chain (ask Apple to buy), and incentivize other suppliers to meet the same metrics (tell Qualcomm that they’ll give them the money to make it happen).
I’ve got a lot of love for Satya Nadella. Truly, he deals with things he understands proactively. I think he knew this was coming, which is why Surface Pro X exists. I don’t think he knew how fast this train was going.
The benefit for us is competition. Microsoft being an actively aware of what they control, and can somewhat influence other things means that Apple has to be on their toes. Microsoft doesn’t control the whole widget. Intel has been very proud of the parts they have controlled.
The longer term question is how can Microsoft either get control of everything in the stack, or at least influence it. They have two routes, existing relationships with NVidia and Qualcomm. Microsoft has to make Windows on ARM be as smooth as the M1 on the software side. Point blank they can’t do it without it. It’s going to be the Visual Studio team, and the people that build everything that supports the platform, and the Windows team.
2 years. I’ll be happy to be wrong on that. I don’t think Microsoft would be willing to help companies move line of business applications to Windows on ARM if it was easy, or if there was a quick fix in a year.