Should I upgrade to the new MacBook Pro?

[5667672]

Hello macrumors community,

I would need your input. About two years ago I bought a MacBook Air for university with a M1 Chip, 16Gb RAM and a 512Gb SSD. Now unfortunately I had a display damage which was not caused by me. So fortunately the insurance covers the damage and I am compensated for it. The MacBook has a dent on the outside and below the camera some pixels are dead, respectively they can't display a proper black anymore.

I actually wasn't going to make the jump to a MacBook Pro until the 3nm process was integrated into the chips. Does it make sense to sell my current MacBook and switch to an M2 Pro / Max or should I rather use my MacBook Air until it breaks and then switch?

Are there already rumors when the M3 processor in the 3nm process will be released in the MacBook Pro?

Please help me regarding my decision.

 

[ssmed]

if your computer is critical to your work I would upgrade, similarly if you need more ports, speed or storage upgrade. Otherwise, keep it going. In the end nobody here is going to be able to tell you exactly when the M3 processor will be out, how much it will cost and you might fancy a 15" MBA.

 

[Gudi]

Does it make sense to ...

No! Two years are way to early for an upgrade. Especially as you already are on Apple Silicon.

 

[5667672]

@ssmed Thanks for your advice. It is indeed a hard decision. I don't need my MacBook directly for work, much more for the subjects in university. Therefore, I am still undecided. Will the 3nm process give that much more performance?

The ulterior motive is that I want to buy a decent device for once now, but would be annoyed if a new powerhouse comes around the corner in three months at WWDC for example. Especially after I read in the rumors that the M2 is only an intermediate step to the M3, which is actually planned for this year.

 

[5667672]

No! Two years are way to early for an upgrade. Especially as you already are on Apple Silicon.

That is true. Fortunately I am already on M1. So do you think the performance improvements from M1 to M2 Pro / Max is not worth it, besides considering the display damage?

 

[xraydoc]

That is true. Fortunately I am already on M1. So do you think the performance improvements from M1 to M2 Pro / Max is not worth it, besides considering the display damage?

The M2 Pro/Max is much faster than the basic M1. But, it all depends on what you are doing with your machine. If you're opening webpages on wifi or editing Word/PowerPoint files, then the power of the M2 Pro/Max is going to be wasted.

If you're processing hundreds of high res images in batches, then the upgrade will definitely save you some time.

 

[Gudi]

That is true. Fortunately I am already on M1. So do you think the performance improvements from M1 to M2 Pro / Max is not worth it, besides considering the display damage?

Save the money for a meaningful upgrade later in time. Your first instinct to wait for 3nm and not buy two 5nm laptops in a row was spot-on. While you're still on university the laptop can be stolen, lost or damaged again. So if the dead pixels don't hamper your work, consider them the patina of your exciting campus life.

 

[5667672]

The M2 Pro/Max is much faster than the basic M1. But, it all depends on what you are doing with your machine. If you're opening webpages on wifi or editing Word/PowerPoint files, then the power of the M2 Pro/Max is going to be wasted.

If you're processing hundreds of high res images in batches, then the upgrade will definitely save you some time.

Well that is a good point. Do you believe the M3 will be more powerful through the 3nm process? In my case I have to virtualize different OS and code some small websites / projects for university.

 

[5667672]

Save the money for a meaningful upgrade later in time. Your first instinct to wait for 3nm and not buy two 5nm laptops in a row was spot-on. While you're still on university the laptop can be stolen, lost or damaged again. So if the dead pixels don't hamper your work, consider them the patina of your exciting campus life.

Oh that is a great one! I take the patina. I guess all of your advices made me wait for the significant update and save my money for now. Thank you

 

[Gudi]

Do you believe the M3 will be more powerful through the 3nm process?

Yes. It will have billions more transistors, which translates into additional cpu and gpu cores and other new features Apple deems innovative.

 

[code-m]

If it bothers you then either go with a refurb or student discount on an M2. Even a refurb M2 Air will hold up well if you are really keen. Personally I have a M1 MBA and it is solid, depending on what entices me with M3 I may or may not bite on it otherwise I will probably keep this till it does not receive anymore security updates or it is majorly damaged.

It all depends if it bothers you but with 3nm I would hold off for a M3 Air.

 

[Basic75]

Well that is a good point. Do you believe the M3 will be more powerful through the 3nm process? In my case I have to virtualize different OS and code some small websites / projects for university.

It took you four messages to even mention what you are using your computer for. And you never said your current computer was too slow or not good enough for your tasks. My conclusion is that you are chasing the latest and greatest for its own sake and/or bragging rights. In that case there are no technical reasons to prefer one solution over another. Do whatever you can afford and feels right.

 

[code-m]

It took you four messages to even mention what you are using your computer for. And you never said your current computer was too slow or not good enough for your tasks. My conclusion is that you are chasing the latest and greatest for its own sake and/or bragging rights. In that case there are no technical reasons to prefer one solution over another. Do whatever you can afford and feels right.

Lol, most critical part omitted and with those requirements even a refurb M1 or M2 MBA will be a good fit.

 

[rocketpig]

Keep your current machine. I was forced to upgrade from an M1 Air (toddler spilled water on it) and into an M1 Pro MBP and while it’s a nice upgrade, I would have preferred to wait. Wait for the M3 MBP, it will feel like a true upgrade from your current machine.

 

[MauiPa]

If the MBA was good enough for you before, has your use case changed enough to warrant all that extra power? If not, you don’t need it

 

[257Loner]

No! Two years are way to early for an upgrade. Especially as you already are on Apple Silicon.

Gudi here is trying to save you money. I can understand you wanting to replace if your last laptop is broken. But the cheapest laptop to use is the one you already have. New laptops can't do much more than old ones. Moreover, you're already on an M1 laptop, so you should be experiencing great performance-per-watt, a cool chassis, and great battery life.

 

[Allen_Wentz]

Hello macrumors community,

I would need your input. About two years ago I bought a MacBook Air for university with a M1 Chip, 16Gb RAM and a 512Gb SSD. Now unfortunately I had a display damage which was not caused by me. So fortunately the insurance covers the damage and I am compensated for it. The MacBook has a dent on the outside and below the camera some pixels are dead, respectively they can't display a proper black anymore.

I actually wasn't going to make the jump to a MacBook Pro until the 3nm process was integrated into the chips. Does it make sense to sell my current MacBook and switch to an M2 Pro / Max or should I rather use my MacBook Air until it breaks and then switch?

Are there already rumors when the M3 processor in the 3nm process will be released in the MacBook Pro?

Please help me regarding my decision.

1) Yours is a very appropriate query. Also the patina comment about the damage adding character is spot-on. You are not in a corporate board room, yet. And the dent will reduce the laptop's theft-attraction, a large value add. Even perfectly backed up, mid-semester hardware thefts are a very large PITA.

2) Tech keeps moving forward, always. Whatever hardware choices we are looking at today will be new and different in 6 months; and more importantly OSs/apps will evolve to be different in 6 months. IMO right now is an approaching evolutionary change time at Apple with WWDC 2023 (WWDC tends to be when Apple gives its most public look at where things are going for the next 12 months).

Apple is very likely to flesh out the state of its AR/VR world at WWDC, including actual device demo. Most wags blather on about VR and games, but IMO AR will be where the important future will be. AR/VR needs might help define future Macs.

The reason you specifically should care is because most of us do not yet know what resources AR will most demand 2024 and beyond: GPU? CPU? RAM? Complex i/o? What presents as most important affects the conclusion of what box may be optimum for you specifically. If future apps/OS look like they will want hordes of RAM, for instance, then you might want to wait for M3 and buy a then-discounted 96 GB RAM M2 MBP. [Note that Apple has presented a huge boost in offered RAM lately, and that may or may not be telegraphing something]. Or iF complex i/o becomes necessary you may to add a Mini and keep your lamed MBA, but probably you would not want a new MBA box with limited i/o. Etc.

3) Realities of SoC chip evolution is hella complex. It is not some simplistic "we built using 5 nm size parts and now we will build using 3 nm size parts" as many folks here present it to be. I cannot overstate this enough: simplistic 5 versus 3 is wrong-headed thinking that leads to bad analysis. Yes future generations of tech will always be stronger, but in what ways and at what costs at any given point in time is not simple 5 nm versus 3 nm. I strongly recommend folks read up on SoC and on chip design.

4) Bottom line: wait. The longer your MBA-with-character can keep meeting your needs the better, because tech will keep inexorably advancing. Purchase choices will invariably be better in 6 months than they are at any given present time. New choices will present, old choices will reduce in price, apps/OSs will evolve and most importantly you will become better informed as to your needs and where the tech seems to be going.

Right now with WWDC pending in four months it is particularly important to wait if at all possible. I am trying to, but odds are strong that I will fail...

 

[5667672]

It took you four messages to even mention what you are using your computer for. And you never said your current computer was too slow or not good enough for your tasks. My conclusion is that you are chasing the latest and greatest for its own sake and/or bragging rights. In that case there are no technical reasons to prefer one solution over another. Do whatever you can afford and feels right.

Slow your horses. It's not about bragging or chasing the latest and greatest. It is about whether or not the caused damage to my macbook may reduce the price so significantly especially over time, that it may be rational to upgrade now. Especially considering that for the upcoming tasks 32Gb of Ram would be helpful (Virtualizing Windows / Linux).

Additionally, yes it took "four" messages to explain my use case, but that's because this is my first post here and I didn't want to describe it too comprehensively. Next time I will know and consider it

 

[Allen_Wentz]

Keep your current machine. I was forced to upgrade from an M1 Air (toddler spilled water on it) and into an M1 Pro MBP and while it’s a nice upgrade, I would have preferred to wait. Wait for the M3 MBP, it will feel like a true upgrade from your current machine.

Although we agree on the wait recommendation we strongly disagree about any need to wait to buy M3. An M2 MBP will be plenty strong enough for years and is a huge upgrade from an M1 MBA. Better to build a stronger M2 MBP from mature SoC yields for less money than waiting on an M3.

Edit: Six months from now I may be recommending differently. We shall see...

 

[5667672]

1) Yours is a very appropriate query. Also the patina comment about the damage adding character is spot-on. You are not in a corporate board room, yet. And the dent will reduce the laptop's theft-attraction, a large value add.

2) Tech keeps moving forward, always. Whatever hardware choices we are looking at today will be new and different in 6 months; and more importantly OSs/apps will evolve to be different in 6 months. IMO right now is an approaching evolutionary change time at Apple with WWDC 2023 (WWDC tends to be when Apple gives its most public look at where things are going for the next 12 months).

Apple is very likely to flesh out the state of its AR/VR world at WWDC, including actual device demo. Most wags blather on about VR and games, but IMO AR will be where the important future will be. AR/VR needs might help define future Macs.

The reason you specifically should care is because most of us do not yet know what resources AR will most demand 2024 and beyond: GPU? CPU? RAM? Complex i/o? What presents as most important affects the conclusion of what box may be optimum for you specifically. If future apps/OS look like they will want hordes of RAM, for instance, then you might want to wait for M3 and buy a then-discounted 96 GB RAM M2 MBP. [Note that Apple has presented a huge boost in offered RAM lately, and that may or may not be telegraphing something]. Or iF complex i/o becomes necessary you may to add a Mini and keep your lamed MBA, but probably you would not want a new MBA box with limited i/o. Etc.

3) Realities of SoC chip evolution is hella complex. It is not some simplistic "we built using 5 nm size parts and now we will build using 3 nm size parts" as many folks here present it to be. I cannot overstate this enough: simplistic 5 versus 3 is wrong-headed thinking that leads to bad analysis. Yes future generations of tech will always be stronger, but in what ways and at what costs at any given point in time is not simple 5 nm versus 3 nm. I strongly recommend folks read up on SoC and on chip design.

4) Bottom line: wait. The longer your MBA-with-character can keep meeting your needs the better, because tech will keep inexorably advancing. Purchase choices will invariably be better in 6 months than they are at any given present time. New choices will present, old choices will reduce in price, apps/OSs will evolve and most importantly you will become better informed as to your needs and where the tech seems to be going.

Right now with WWDC pending in four months it is particularly important to wait if at all possible. I am trying to, but odds are strong that I will fail...

0) Wow. I am really thankful for your comprehensive input. It really helps me to identify the right decision. By now, regarding all the feedback, I guess I will stick to my "old" MBA.

1) Thanks for the first sentence. I appreciate that.

2) Do you believe that the upcoming WWDC is very different / special from the past ones? Do you think there is a huge shift due to the introduction of VR / AR glasses?

You made pretty interesting points here. If I had decided on a MacBook Pro now, I would have gone for an MBP with an M2 Pro or Max, 32Gb RAM and 1TB SSD. I had hoped to virtualize the various operating systems with very good performance. You're right, though, that WWDC will bring some clarity on what will be relevant in the future. For that alone, it is certainly worth waiting.

3) Do you have some sources where I can start to unravel the complexity of chip development?

4) I keep it simple: I agree. I will wait. Seems to be the best and most rational choice.

5) I hope you can wait as well, even though the odds are strong that you may fail. ^^

 

[5667672]

Gudi here is trying to save you money. I can understand you wanting to replace if your last laptop is broken. But the cheapest laptop to use is the one you already have. New laptops can't do much more than old ones. Moreover, you're already on an M1 laptop, so you should be experiencing great performance-per-watt, a cool chassis, and great battery life.

You are right. The cheapest laptop is the one I already have. I only fear, that the pixel damage might get any worse. Then I do not have any value at all to trade in or sell. :/

I guess I just hope for the best and wait. Hopefully my "old" MBA will stick around for some time, until it is worth upgrading.

 

[5667672]

If the MBA was good enough for you before, has your use case changed enough to warrant all that extra power? If not, you don’t need it

Well the use case changed a bit. Ongoing I need to virtualize different OS and start programming again.

However, the greatest fear is that the pixel damage beneath the camera gets worse and I do not have any value at all to trade in or sell. That would be the worst scenario.

Otherwise, except for the limitation of RAM, I am highly satisfied with my MBA.

 

[5667672]

Keep your current machine. I was forced to upgrade from an M1 Air (toddler spilled water on it) and into an M1 Pro MBP and while it’s a nice upgrade, I would have preferred to wait. Wait for the M3 MBP, it will feel like a true upgrade from your current machine.

Oh I feel sorry for that. I guess than I am in a lucky position, since my MBA still works. I take your advice and will save my money for the noteworthy upgrade.

Thanks for your input.

 

[Allen_Wentz]

0) Wow. I am really thankful for your comprehensive input. It really helps me to identify the right decision. By now, regarding all the feedback, I guess I will stick to my "old" MBA.

1) Thanks for the first sentence. I appreciate that.

2) Do you believe that the upcoming WWDC is very different / special from the past ones? Do you think there is a huge shift due to the introduction of VR / AR glasses?

You made pretty interesting points here. If I had decided on a MacBook Pro now, I would have gone for an MBP with an M2 Pro or Max, 32Gb RAM and 1TB SSD. I had hoped to virtualize the various operating systems with very good performance. You're right, though, that WWDC will bring some clarity on what will be relevant in the future. For that alone, it is certainly worth waiting.

3) Do you have some sources where I can start to unravel the complexity of chip development?

4) I keep it simple: I agree. I will wait. Seems to be the best and most rational choice.

5) I hope you can wait as well, even though the odds are strong that you may fail. ^^

Yes I believe that the upcoming WWDC may be very different / special from the past ones due to AR/VR. Yes I think there may be a huge shift due to the introduction of AR/VR glasses - - but it may take discerning reading-between-the-lines to pick it up. Note that my placement of AR in front of VR is intentional; I think that AR may be the killer app that sneaks up on us.

One solid recommendation that I will make is that if you buy a MBP you get 64 GB RAM rather than 32 GB. Note that we should choose RAM levels for our expected RAM needs at the midlife of a new box, not today's experience; and RAM demands always increase over time. Virtualization is in a weird space with the new Apple SoC; since you are using it that probably should be something you look at particularly closely.

If the MBA was good enough for you before, has your use case changed enough to warrant all that extra power? If not, you don’t need it.

Correct as to when to buy but not correct as to what to buy when the time comes. When configuring a new box we need to force ourselves to envision optimum hardware for ~2 years down the road, not today.

 

[Mr. Dee]

I have an M1 MBP 2020 and I probably won't be looking at another upgrade until around 2025 or even 2026. Macs last a long time and don't slow down quickly, especially the Apple Silicon models. Your Mac likely have a lot of useful years remaining.