Speculation - initial sales numbers

[Fuzzy Dunlop]

Just curious how people think the rollout will go once they are available. I think whatever the last version of each model with Intel will be scarcely available when the ARM version starts selling.

I know Apple is a company that can weather the storm. Unless the ARM hardware turns out to be a colossal flop, the numbers will get there eventually, but I believe it will take a while.

 

[maflynn]

I can't guess at the numbers but Apple knows what they're doing so I'd say it won't be a flop

 

[darkmatter343]

For the majority, it won’t make any difference. Intel, Apple Silocon, besides the “name” most people have no clue what’s under the hood, they only care that MacOS looks and functions like MacOS. I doubt sales will be affected as I don’t expect them to plunge, nor do I expect them to skyrocket. if you prefer a Mac you’ll still buy Mac.

For those smaller crowds, like us, that understand more of the underlying hardware, the implications and impact it’ll have switching to Arm, maybe it’ll make a water drop ripple, but Apple also isn’t about to piss off it’s pro users.

The majority of Apple MAC sales are to users who don’t really care, nor care to understand what powers their devices. MacOS will still look like MacOS albeit some UI changes, and as such the switch to Arm will mostly be transparent to them.

 

[Fuzzy Dunlop]

For the majority, it won’t make any difference. Intel, Apple Silocon, besides the “name” most people have no clue what’s under the hood, they only care that MacOS looks and functions like MacOS. I doubt sales will be affected, I don’t expect them to plunge, nor do I expect them to skyrocket, if you prefer “Macs” you’ll still buy Mac.

For those smaller crowds, like us, that understand more of the underlying hardware, the implications and impact it’ll have switching, maybe it’ll make a drop ripple, but Apple also isn’t about to piss off it’s pro users.

The majority of Apples MAC sales is to users who don’t really care, nor care to know what powers it. They are use to MacOS, and as suchthe switch will mostly be transparent to them.

That's a good point. I remember they wouldn't put any of those "Intel Inside" stickers on any of their products like Windows PCs have.

 

[UnbreakableAlex]

They could leave intel Mac with the design they have now and give arm Macs a crazy modern, ultra slim design so most people would naturally tend buying the arm Macs.

 

[blahbrah]

For the majority, it won’t make any difference. Intel, Apple Silocon, besides the “name” most people have no clue what’s under the hood, they only care that MacOS looks and functions like MacOS. I doubt sales will be affected as I don’t expect them to plunge, nor do I expect them to skyrocket. if you prefer a Mac you’ll still buy Mac.

For those smaller crowds, like us, that understand more of the underlying hardware, the implications and impact it’ll have switching to Arm, maybe it’ll make a water drop ripple, but Apple also isn’t about to piss off it’s pro users.

The majority of Apple MAC sales are to users who don’t really care, nor care to understand what powers their devices. MacOS will still look like MacOS albeit some UI changes, and as such the switch to Arm will mostly be transparent to them.

I think you'd be surprised by how many people were burned by the ban on 64 bit apps. My friend updated the OS and it killed half of the programs she used and has kind of soured on Apple as a result. She was definitely Apple all the way up until then and I'd be highly surprised if she bought an apple product in the near future.

Also, a lot of the ARM benefits would likely be in extra battery life which has definitely lost its luster when so many people cannot leave the house very often and will not be able to for awhile.

 

[darkmatter343]

I think you'd be surprised by how many people were burned by the ban on 64 bit apps. My friend updated the OS and it killed half of the programs she used and has kind of soured on Apple as a result. She was definitely Apple all the way up until then and I'd be highly surprised if she bought an apple product in the near future.

Also, a lot of the ARM benefits would likely be in extra battery life which has definitely lost its luster when so many people cannot leave the house very often and will not be able to for awhile.

Apple didn’t “ban” 64bit Apps, MacOS Catalina is just a 64bit OS as a whole, therefor you can’t run 32bit software on it.

Windows is also 64bit but like MacOS Mojave retains the ability to run 32bit code. 64bit Processors have been around for over a decade, and so it’s way over due that we move to 64bit only Operating Systems and software. Why it hasn’t happened sooner is due to legacy apps, legacy 32bit code, and to some extent 32bit hardware drivers.

Honestly Apple is doing everyone a favour by pushing things forward to 64bit. Sure... in the short term, people like your friend get burned, but then if those 32bit apps are that important, keep an older Mac around that can run them. Demanding 32bit code and apps remain indefinitely, is only asking that the tech industry stagnate. Windows and Mac should have been 64bit years ago.

If we keep the ability to run 32bit code around indefinitely, why not 16bit too, heck even 8bit ? Progression...

16bit to 32bit didn’t even take this long...

 

[TiggrToo]

I think you'd be surprised by how many people were burned by the ban on 64 bit apps. My friend updated the OS and it killed half of the programs she used and has kind of soured on Apple as a result. She was definitely Apple all the way up until then and I'd be highly surprised if she bought an apple product in the near future.

Also, a lot of the ARM benefits would likely be in extra battery life which has definitely lost its luster when so many people cannot leave the house very often and will not be able to for awhile.

1. What 64 bit ban?
2. We'll not be locked at home forever. Eventually we'll get a vaccine or other treatments.

 

[KPOM]

I think you'd be surprised by how many people were burned by the ban on 64 bit apps. My friend updated the OS and it killed half of the programs she used and has kind of soured on Apple as a result. She was definitely Apple all the way up until then and I'd be highly surprised if she bought an apple product in the near future.

Also, a lot of the ARM benefits would likely be in extra battery life which has definitely lost its luster when so many people cannot leave the house very often and will not be able to for awhile.

Apple started alerting users 2 years before Catalina that future versions wouldn’t support 32-bit apps. Were there no newer 64-bit versions of the programs? If not, then she was running a lot of abandonware (Apple had been pushing 64-bit for over a decade before Catalina).
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I’m guessing overall sales will be very similar to today. Apple will lose some sales to those who rely on the ability to run x86 operating systems, but that may be offset by iPad users who will gain the ability to run their favorite apps on the Mac. Despite Apple’s denials, we may see a hybrid device that will bring macOS compatibility and a touch screen, which could be very popular among iPad Pro users.

 

[blahbrah]

Technically yes, but she did have paid versions of Office and Photoshop she was using that she lost access to. Albeit these were the older versions of both a lot of people have a "if it's not broken don't fix it" mentality when it comes to software and ARM potentially may break a lot unless they can find specialized uses for it.

 

[psingh01]

I imagine the Air and iMac will get switched over to ARM first, with the Pro‘s later. They may continue to sell an intel based air for a while after that, but won’t bother to upgrade it even if new cpus are available. Kinda how they kept non retina MBPs around as an option.

I don’t think sales will spike up or down. They’ll keep on their current trajectory. They’ll lose some sales of people that prefer the convenience of intel, but it’s probably a minuscule percentage.

I have a 16” which I‘m glad is Intel based and plan to keep for 5 years. After that, if I were to guess, I would get a low end Mac laptop (or maybe just an iPad) and a high spec PC laptop. I did that once before when they cancelled the 17” MBP. I went from upgrading PowerBooks/MPB every 3 years to getting an Air and keeping it for 6 years. I used it mainly for iTunes/photos and personal stuff. I got a high spec PC to go with that air. Only to consolidate to a 16” now.