The 15 Dumbest Apple Predictions Of All Time
By Rob Beschizza November 01, 2007 | 2:55:00 PMCategories: Apple
It's easy to dump ire on anlysts for getting it wrong so often. What those guys do, however, is provide a particular service to particular people. Interpreting what analysts say in terms of truth or falsity is to forget the real lesson we should take from Prof. Frankfurt: words build worlds.
That said, here are some of the most awesome flubs to be found in the futures that people have wished for Apple. Recommended listening while reading this list is "I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas."
The iMac Will Fail
"The iMac will only sell to some of the true believers. The iMac doesn't include a floppy disk drive drive for doing file backups or sharing of data. It's an astonishing lapse from Jobs, who should have learned better... the iMac is clean, elegant, floppy-free–and doomed.” — Hiawatha Bray in the Boston Globe, 1998.
Give the Money Back
"I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders." — Michael Dell in October 1997,as an immediate prelude to a renaissance that would see Apple ultimately eclipse Dell in size.
Coming Soon: Apple's Subnotebook/Tablet/UMPC/Newton 2
"UltraPortable PCs from Apple using Flash memory to be delivered as early as Macworld San Francisco 2007." — Benjamin Reitzes in June 2006.
In Reitzes' defense, the fellow scried the Mac Mini three months before it appeared. And here's Gene Munster with the same thing, just a few days ago. Someone will eventually get the timing right. Right?
Gamers Will Flock To Macs
"Gaming will be an important part of Apple’s focus on the consumer market. ... By the end of calendar year 1999, the Mac platform will have the best gaming machines available to the general consumer." — the usually-wise Robert Paul Leitlao, in 1998.
Apple's Post-iPod Era Decline Proceeds Apace
“The biggest long-term problem with moving to an Apple platform is that the company is in decline." — Rob Enderle, in October 2003.
iPhone, The Bomb of 2007
"The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks." — Matthew Lynn, in Bloomberg after the January announcement.
IPhone Revolution To Kill Subsidy Status Quo?
"Wolf also notes that he expects Apple to sell the phone as an unlocked device through the Apple Stores, allowing people to choose their own carrier." — Charles Wolf, paraphrased by Barrons' Eric Savitz in January. In reality, to quote one AT&T executive, Apple ultimately "bent" for them.
Hewlett Packard iPod To Be a Winner
"The expectation on the iPod is that HP's version will probably outsell Apple's version relatively quickly." — Rob Enderle, quoted in MacObserver in August 2004.
Sony To Buy Apple
"Within the next two months, Sony will acquire Apple. ... Sony will be the white knight who will step into the picture." — former Apple VP Gaston Bastiaens, in January 1996.
A Range of Click-Wheel iPhones
"Prudential analyst Jesse Tortora said the first and slimmer of Apple's initial two cell phone models will look like an iPod with a small screen and a click wheel interface." — Jesse Tortoya, paraphrased by MacRumors.
The Goose is Cooked
"Apple as we know it is cooked. It's so classic. It's so sad." — Stan Dolberg of Forrester Research, quoted by the New York Times in 1996. See also Fortune's "By the time you read this story, the quirky cult company…will end its wild ride as an independent enterprise," from the same year. Time: "Certainly No Future."
Microsoft's Nathan Myhrvold couldn't even predict the present: "Apple is already dead," he said after Jobs' return.
AppleTV's Features and Impact
"Apple's iTV will include features beyond streaming content and could have an impact on video similar to what the iPod has done for music." — Andy Neff of Bear Stearns packs several failed prognostications into one sentence.
Jobs, Shjobs!
"The idea that they're going to go back to the past to hit a big home run . . . is delusional" — Dave Winer, quoted by the Financial Times in 1997.
Self-Mutilation or Sale Is the Only Way Forward
"[Apple] seems to have two options. The first is to break itself up, selling the hardware side. The second is to sell the company outright." — The Economist, Feb. 1995
Shut Down The Primary Source Of Revenue
"Admit it. You're out of the hardware game," — Us, in 1997. Of course, the rest of
Wired's 101 Ways To Save Apple list is packed with suggestions that turned out to be chillingly accurate! ("We’d all feel better ... if we could get a tower with leopard spots.")
Any others to add? Now, don't go posting the complete works of Rob Enderle, folks. Bandwidth isn't free.
