The Digital Era has begun! circa 2020

[rezwits]

Did you ever think to yourself that there would be a future, where, people would have their "boxes" and only buy Digital Content?
Like Games, Music, Video, and Books (etc, even tho there's not much etc LOL)?

The reason I say this is because in the industry they say there is a chip shortage.

But envision this:

Let's say when Apple made an iPhone that out of 7 Billion people 3 Billion got the iPhone over a 5 month period.
Bear with me.

That would be 600 Million per month! or 20 Million a day! Delivered!

The only way something like this could happen, would be if people eventually had 3D printers for their "boxes" and an in-home chip printer!
Pretty cool right? You 3D print your iPhone, and buy glass screen replacements at the store, print the pieces slide them together, boom everyone gets an iPhone within a month!! (but this isn't gonna happen anytime soon)

But here is the KICKER, you have to wait 11 months for the next model.

And this is what's happening en masse it's not a chip shortage. It's that everyone now days is in the Digital Era!

What does this really mean? It means that every damn day people are waiters and watchers.

2020
Xbox
PS5
iPhone
NVIDIA video card (latest)

2021
still Xbox
still PS5
next new iPhone
NVIDIA video card (latest)
and now
MacBook Pro (M1P/M1X)

Everyone SAVES their money or Credit line for the BIG TICKET Items AND EVERYONE wants them!

They say a chip shortage, but man it's serious supply and demand, the demand for these BIG TICKET items is huge nowadays in the Digital Era.

Then people go back to using digital consumption items.

I don't what's next for 2022 but it'll be interesting. I am seeing Apple shine pretty hard with possible iMac, Mini and Air models.

But what are gonna be the big HOLD OUT Big Ticket Items that people are gonna scream for? That are gonna freakin' sell out so hard that nobody will be able to buy them, cause they won't be able to make enough, because the factory can't be in everyones computer room where the 3D printer is!

I don't really see much from the other companies. IDK maybe I am in a closed environment not seeing everything.

I mean don't get me wrong there are Extremely Big Ticket Items like a House or Car and those might be the other items, but I am not seeing much else from the other Tech Giants out there!

Thanks for reading!

 

[TiggrToo]

The only way something like this could happen, would be if people eventually had 3D printers for their "boxes" and an in-home chip printer!

Er…no. Just plain absolute no.

How is this 3D printer going to produce a SoC with over 16 BILLION transistors which currently has to be produced in a clean room with a die so small that quantum tunneling is a very real issue?

The very idea of your post is totally preposterous…

 

[rezwits]

Er…no. Just plain absolute no.

How is this 3D printer going to produce a SoC with over 16 BILLION transistors which currently has to be produced in a clean room with a die so small that quantum tunneling is a very real issue?

The very idea of your post is totally preposterous…

Wow, it was a complete hypothetical "futuristic" idea, it's not gonna happen "ANY" time soon. The actual fact that you thought it was a "proposal" as perhaps a fix is ridiculous, but I don't want to be rude here, but kinda funny.

It was to illustrate that companies CANNOT deliver 3 Billion Units of their products, in a 4 month time frame, essentially pointing out it's not a chip shortage per say it's just over all "people only buy (or want) to only buy" these high end high ticket products, so we are gonna to see shortages for products from now to the foreseeable future...

What happens now is if people can't buy the high ticket item, their money slowly slides away to excess food or accessories to fill the "void."

3 Billion PS5s delivered in 4 months? Impossible...

This wasn't a "THIS IS THE FIX" post, this was a, we are living in a Futuristic Time now where we only buy 4-5 (major) hardware products a year statement, and stay home and Digitally Live...

 

[TiggrToo]

Wow, it was a complete hypothetical "futuristic" idea, it's not gonna happen "ANY" time soon. The actual fact that you thought it was a "proposal" as perhaps a fix is ridiculous, but I don't want to be rude here, but kinda funny.

It was to illustrate that companies CANNOT deliver 3 Billion Units of their products, in a 4 month time frame, essentially pointing out it's not a chip shortage per say it's just over all "people only buy (or want) to only buy" these high end high ticket products, so we are gonna to see shortages for products from now to the foreseeable future...

What happens now is if people can't buy the high ticket item, their money slowly slides away to excess food or accessories to fill the "void."

3 Billion PS5s delivered in 4 months? Impossible...

This wasn't a "THIS IS THE FIX" post, this was a, we are living in a Futuristic Time now where we only buy 4-5 (major) hardware products a year statement, and stay home and Digitally Live...

Still won't happen. Period.

 

[BrianBaughn]

I think by the time we have Star Trek "replicators" the iPhone will be forgotten.

The USA might have become the "United States of Apple", though.

 

[veena3]

Bigger demand and less resources could have implications like:

• prices of devices will go up
• we will see some tech brands going out of the market
• maybe rise of crappy devices which could be cheap and easy to produce and also rise of high quality devices which you can use for a long time and don't have to buy faster one every year because your cpu or ram didn't catch up with new software
• quality devices will be finally more valued
• less waste of old devices because of stronger second hand market of quality devices
• it will be worth to repair quality devices instead of trash them - so again less waste
• much better recycling of old devices to secure precious materials for making new ones - less waste, carbon neutral
• clever brands will focus to get more revenue from services and not just hardware
• rise of cloud computing, to provide services for people who can't afford strong CPU in their hands to rent it when they need it as a service
• substitution of some hardware with software thanks to VR headsets. Imagine instead of having 3 hardware monitors to have 3 software monitors in your virtual office
• could be worth it for developers to focus on optimalization of software apps to using all the potential of hardware we already have and not waisting it's resources (looking to you Microsoft and your apps)

So Apple like a tech company which:

• produces quality and pricey devices
• power their devices with their own state of the art powerful and efficient CPUs which can catch up with OS and apps for like 10 year without problem
• created environment where it's natural to create optimised software apps by developers anyway
• is already strong in services and locking their users in their environment
• has industry leading standards in recycling and reusing of their devices

has a bright future in front of them.

There's few things which can go wrong for Apple and they should be aware of them I suggest:

1. They can waste lot of cash with trying to produce Apple Car just by themselves. If they don't find a partner in automotive which has already factories and production line and they would decide to create that factories, production line and logistic chains themselves, it would be like starting new Tesla company inside of Apple company and it could go very badly. You know Elon's "prototyping is fast, production is hard" in automotive. They could spend enormous amount of money for 10 years but still be 5 years behind Tesla and it could influence shortage of money for they original products. I hope they'll do different.
2. Problems with Apple charging high fees and controlling release of every app stores which could create really bad relationships with software companies which could be hard to repair. Some of them already solve it by making their apps for browsers instead of apps.
3. Rising desires of people for transparency, open standards, open source software and also open source hardware in future. This could clash with Apple way of doing things and I think Apple could be reason for rising of big competitors just by the nature that people would like to feel more freedom. And also that in long term I believe the innovation in open systems by simple putting more brains of people from all around the world could outperform brains in one company Apple. See the example of Android, which I think already catch up iOS and in same view felt for me smoother in UI. (Problem for me was slow CPU in a cheep android phone and i am much happier with iPhone 7 for same price now and have no problem with speed even it was released one year before my previous android phone)

What do you think of those things?

 

[rezwits]

Bigger demand and less resources could have implications like:

• prices of devices will go up
• we will see some tech brands going out of the market
• maybe rise of crappy devices which could be cheap and easy to produce and also rise of high quality devices which you can use for a long time and don't have to buy faster one every year because your cpu or ram didn't catch up with new software
• quality devices will be finally more valued
• less waste of old devices because of stronger second hand market of quality devices
• it will be worth to repair quality devices instead of trash them - so again less waste
• much better recycling of old devices to secure precious materials for making new ones - less waste, carbon neutral
• clever brands will focus to get more revenue from services and not just hardware
• rise of cloud computing, to provide services for people who can't afford strong CPU in their hands to rent it when they need it as a service
• substitution of some hardware with software thanks to VR headsets. Imagine instead of having 3 hardware monitors to have 3 software monitors in your virtual office
• could be worth it for developers to focus on optimalization of software apps to using all the potential of hardware we already have and not waisting it's resources (looking to you Microsoft and your apps)

So Apple like a tech company which:

• produces quality and pricey devices
• power their devices with their own state of the art powerful and efficient CPUs which can catch up with OS and apps for like 10 year without problem
• created environment where it's natural to create optimised software apps by developers anyway
• is already strong in services and locking their users in their environment
• has industry leading standards in recycling and reusing of their devices

has a bright future in front of them.

There's few things which can go wrong for Apple and they should be aware of them I suggest:

1. They can waste lot of cash with trying to produce Apple Car just by themselves. If they don't find a partner in automotive which has already factories and production line and they would decide to create that factories, production line and logistic chains themselves, it would be like starting new Tesla company inside of Apple company and it could go very badly. You know Elon's "prototyping is fast, production is hard" in automotive. They could spend enormous amount of money for 10 years but still be 5 years behind Tesla and it could influence shortage of money for they original products. I hope they'll do different.
2. Problems with Apple charging high fees and controlling release of every app stores which could create really bad relationships with software companies which could be hard to repair. Some of them already solve it by making their apps for browsers instead of apps.
3. Rising desires of people for transparency, open standards, open source software and also open source hardware in future. This could clash with Apple way of doing things and I think Apple could be reason for rising of big competitors just by the nature that people would like to feel more freedom. And also that in long term I believe the innovation in open systems by simple putting more brains of people from all around the world could outperform brains in one company Apple. See the example of Android, which I think already catch up iOS and in same view felt for me smoother in UI. (Problem for me was slow CPU in a cheep android phone and i am much happier with iPhone 7 for same price now and have no problem with speed even it was released one year before my previous android phone)

What do you think of those things?

Bigger concentrated demand
(100 million people want a "device" going up 10 million people year after year, yep)
Prices of stuff going up, (yep I can see that)
Tech brand going out of business, (yep)
Crappy devices for sure
Your computer (if not a crappy of flimsy built) will last longer
hopefully stronger recycling

In regards to the Apple (ideas)
1. Totally could see bad money management if dumping into the Car production
2. The software/App Store, is something of interest to watch unfold have to shrug on this one IDK
3. Fortunately, Apple won't release their "Tech" for other companies to use. Especially due to "security concerns" at this point. But they won't sell their ARM chips to them either.

Thanks for the write up, enjoyed reading!

 

[veena3]

Thanks for the write up, enjoyed reading!

Thanks for bringing up this topic!


Would be nice to have eg. Audi with "Apple inside", yeah? Imagine Apple SOC with Apple software with autopilot and mini LED display with state of the art touchscreen by Apple. Would be awesome, but Apple wants to have own designed hardware (here the car) it probably will never happen like that.