The looming downfall of laptops

[Joe Dohn]

Hi, everyone!

I'm sure we all here love portable devices, and I'm sure many of us here have at least more than one— if only in the form of a smartphone and tablet combo. And you have probably been noticing how portable devices are getting better and better.

Which made me wonder: could laptops be the next device on the chopping block? If the constant wave of technological innovation intrigues you as it does me, then read on.

I've been pondering the long-term prospects of laptops, especially when compared to their rapidly advancing smaller counterparts—handheld PCs.

A few years back, prognostications were rife that cellphones would eclipse their more substantial counterparts—laptops and desktops—in market dominance. While this trend hasn't fully materialized, it does raise an intriguing question about the long-term viability of laptops.

That didn't materialize, but I think the prediction is only wrong because in its time scope.

While it seems counterintuitive, I think notebooks are probably more threatened than desktops, even though the desktop market has been declining. This is because while x86 desktops are not portable, their merits are relatively straightforward: they offer an open architecture, easier reparability, and provide more performance for the cost. Laptops, on the other hand, are only ever-so-slightly more ergonomic than a handheld PC, with a larger screen and keyboard. But even that can be mitigated with a dock. And even with one that turns a handheld into a notebook, why not? There are rumors Apple themselves played with that patent idea.

As handheld devices continue to improve in terms of both performance and affordability, their role as productivity tools seems set to expand. In the past, the lower processing power of handheld computers held them back, but that barrier is quickly eroding.

The redundancy of owning both a handheld PC and a laptop—or even a laptop and a tablet—is becoming increasingly clear. Many modern handheld PCs also come with LTE support, allowing for seamless transition by just inserting your phone chip. The only major stumbling block at present which appears to be a major hindrance is battery life.

So, given these trends, I foresee a future where the laptop market may decline in favor of more versatile and efficient handheld computing options. I can certainly understand the rationale behind owning a desktop for more resource-intensive tasks and a portable device for on-the-go computing. But the overlap between laptops and advanced handhelds seems to make it start becoming obsolete.

I'm curious to know what you all think. Is the end of the laptop era on the horizon, or will they find a way to hold their ground? Let's discuss.

 

[Flash1420]

Laptops and even desktops will never go away. You need these to develop software for other product you have mentioned. People still prefer actual keyboards rather than touch-screen keyboards. With maybe the exception for phone calling and taking pictures, I can do everything that I do on a phone with my laptop, but the same can't be said when you switch them. Honestly, if I had to give up all my devices and just keep one, it would be my laptop.

 

[Joe Dohn]

People still prefer actual keyboards rather than touch-screen keyboards.

I agree that touchscreen keyboards are not good for productivity scenarios, but that can either be addressed by connecting a large keyboard into a USB port or by using a wireless keyboard, depending on your taste.

 

[organicCPU]

Well, I think that computing industry may benefit from subscriptions earned by Infrastructure as a service (IaaS) in the long run. Why would you need a more and more powerful portable device, if you you can connect to a more and more powerful platform with a cheap and simple device. Be it Apple Vision Pro or an iPad Air that will be your next desktop in your pocket.
I don´t like that idea and would prefer a self controlled and self hosted cloud, but I guess we all will get subscribers and not owners somewhen.

 

[Flash1420]

I agree that touchscreen keyboards are not good for productivity scenarios, but that can either be addressed by connecting a large keyboard into a USB port or by using a wireless keyboard, depending on your taste.

I agree but that kind of defeats the point of a laptop and portability. It just becomes clunky as you add more things to the setup.

 

[Flash1420]

Also keep in mind, laptop bodies allow for more powerful chips because of better thermals. You can't fit an M2 Pro in an iPhone, I mean you could in theory but it would severely reduce performance.

 

[MacMan2013]

Laptops are good for some things, tablets for others. An iPad is great for reading, listening, gaming, email, quick online tasks like looking up the weather or checking on your stocks. A MacBook is easier for typing, I could not imagine typing anything lengthy on a touchscreen, it's far more effort. It's more comfortable to use for long periods. The screen is larger, so better for watching videos. The better memory makes it more versatile, able to cope with more demanding tasks. I could not make do with only an iPad for any length of time. Phones are even more limited due to the small screens. The reality is one device can not do everything well, you need the right tool for the right job.

 

[dmr727]

I bought a 2-1 Dell XPS earlier in the year, thinking that after all these years the industry might have finally figured out the secret sauce to only needing a single device. I returned it within a week. Just too hot - the thermals were terrible - and Windows 11 was far worse for touch than I ever could have imagined. If I had kept it, it would have stayed attached to the keyboard/trackpad case pretty much the entire time. At that point it's just as heavy as a comparable laptop, with crummier thermals and a keyboard/trackpad, that while good for a tablet, is still inferior.

I've been looking for this solution for years, and with every new 2-1 released by Microsoft and/or Dell I get my hopes up that they finally cracked the code. But nope.

 

[Joe Dohn]

The reality is one device can not do everything well, you need the right tool for the right job.

It may be so, but if you are on the go and you carry all the "ideal" devices for each workflow, you would carry at least three devices: one for your calls (cellphone), another for content consumption (tablet) and another for productivity (laptop).

While some people do have the money to keep up, most people simply don't. And staying up-to-date would be extremely expensive.

And even if you ignore the money argument, there's still the fact you are carrying three devices, so you need to keep them all charged and working.

From a practical point of view, it makes sense to focus on a main scenario (e.g, "portability; productivity; games") and carry one main device at the expense of the other scenarios being less than ideal. AT MOST, someone will only feel like carrying 2 devices at the same time (e.g, cellphone + tablet, or cellphone + laptop).

 

[BenGoren]

If you want to look far enough into the future, the great-great-great-grandchild of Vision Pro will be your display. Physically, it’ll just be a pair of spectacles (or maybe even contact lenses).

When you need physical input devices (keyboard, mouse, stylus), you’ll just have those — and they’ll just be for the tactile aspect.

Your spectacles will have overwhelming computational power by today’s standards. But should you need more, there’ll be a wireless connection to the cloud that — just like Siri today — is seamless to the user.

I very much doubt that you’ll have a personal device with significant computational power. But, if you do, it’ll be something like today’s HomePod: a stylish small multi-purpose device, and it’ll be your personal “Cloud.” Again, its display will be your spectacles — and you could well be on the other side of the planet. But it’d be far cheaper and more convenient instead to just have a bit of the general cloud for such things.

Will this happen soon?

No.

Will most of us live to see it happen?

Probably.

b&

 

[MiamiBeach]

With every day that passes, I find myself using my MacBook less and less and reach from my iPad more. I am not a programmer or software developer but I do agree that a proper keyboard in this situation would be most beneficial.

If Apple does come out with a macOS version for the iPad along with file storage like on a MacBook, I think at that point I will sell my MacBook and only use my iPad.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

Right tool for the job. Right tool for the job.

One can drive a nail into the wall with a screwdriver but a hammer is made for the purpose.

Smart phones can do many things that a laptop can do... but will we ever want to do all of it on relatively puny screens?

The trend throughout computing history has been to expand that screen R.E. iPhone has gone through this itself. Recall that the first "perfect" iPhone screen was 3.5" and then 4" while most Apple fans ridiculed the phablets (that Apple didn't offer yet).

Consider first iPad screen vs. the "pro" ones now spun for laptop-like work.

Consider the first computer screens. Look back at that first Mac. What was that screen size? What Mac ships with that or smaller screen size now? Today we grumble about when will Apple revive the 27" iMac while some hope for 29"-32" iMacs... with a 24" iMac available immediately. Why do we care about 3-8 more inches of screen?

Some companies are making phones and laptop with folding screens to yield more screen space.

Nobody is working on miniaturizing screens for computer usage... unless you consider Vpro, which offers tiny screens that can create the illusion of up to enormous ones. With a product like that, I can easily envision the bottom half of a MB and a Vpro for the any-size screen as a laptop replacement. That would keep the full size keyboard and trackpad for laptop controls while delivering up to a much larger screen or screens that all fit in a laptop-like bag. To me, I think that offers best shot at laptop replacement... particularly when compared to an idea of tiny smart device screens. But that will cost a lot more than only using a phone/tablet plus maybe a cheap bluetooth keyboard.

In other words, to replace the laptop, it's not just about the tech power guts- it's also about the work space. Mac mini is already a fairly small package. One could put it plus a portable screen in a bag for a full macOS-based laptop replacement IF they are willing to forego the battery "use it anywhere" benefit. Else, add a battery to the package... and then you find yourself wanting the compact all-in-one without losing so much screen R.E. in a laptop.

As a working Mac guy, one thing I really don't like is to go from my usual desktop screen (a 40" ultra-wide) down to a 16" MB screen. Productivity plunges trying to work within that seemingly tight space. I also have an iPad mini and would definitely NOT want to try to use it in place of a computer and it would be even worse down at phablet screen sizes.

To get big work done, you need a good-sized screen... or the patience to try to accomplish the same on tiny screens. For casual notes & consumption, one could get by on a watch-sized screen. But as the work ramps up, more screen generally helps. Editing multiple tracks of video or audio on a phone-sized screen seems towards nightmarish. Laying out a new edition of a magazine on a phone-sized screen also seems nightmarish. Etc. There are many scenarios where having expansive screen R.E. is an absolute productivity benefit with no way to work as well on relatively micro-screens.

Conceptually, Apple could put an MX-chip in an iPhone to align the technical power vs. a Mac. But with a tiny screen, there's little space to actually do the work. Tasks that don't need expansive screen space? OK. But what about those other tasks?

A remedy would be loading the world with big screens + keyboards + mice/pads with slots/docks for macOS-capable iPhones. Like old game cartridges in an Atari, plug the phone into a dock and do your Mac work on the big screen. But that is somewhat just splitting the components of a laptop into pieces, somehow getting them everywhere where they can be used by strangers and then transporting this hybrid phone/Mac "cartridge" to plug in when one wants a Mac-like experience with space to efficiently do your thing. Easy to write: very challenging to implement in a way where one could comfortably leave the laptop at home and trust their super-phone will have access to "the rest" when one needs it.

 

[JamesMay82]

I understand what your saying and id agree to a certain extent for the very basics of email but the minute you need to open a spreadsheet or word document you need a laptop or better yet a 27 inch iMac! I like to have have safari open and excel open side by side for when I’m researching stuff for my work and the same again for email.

I would of thought that laptop sales would be on the rise with all the increased working from home that’s going on these days.

 

[ignatius345]

There are simple ergonomic reasons the laptop remains a great form factor. The control surface (horizontal) lines up well with horizontal work surfaces and the way human hands and wrists work, the display surface (generally 45° to vertical) lines up decently with one's eyes. Merge the two, like in a tablet, and you're either putting your neck or your hands at an awkward angle. Notice how when people start relying on their iPads for long periods of work, they start putting keyboards on them that basically turn them into laptops.

So, it's no surprise the form factor endures: laptops are incredibly durable when closed, they provide a "good enough" ergonomic setup for short- to medium-length work sessions, they accomodate a good variety of hardware and ports to plug in peripherals like external monitors for longer or more involved work.

 

[ignatius345]

I understand what your saying and id agree to a certain extent for the very basics of email but the minute you need to open a spreadsheet or word document you need a laptop or better yet a 27 inch iMac! I like to have have safari open and excel open side by side for when I’m researching stuff for my work and the same again for email.

Yep. And the ergonomics of a desktop are much better since the display is up at eye level instead of down by your hands. Once you get past a couple hours of work, that stuff starts to matter more and more to your neck.

 

[JamesMay82]

Yep. And the ergonomics of a desktop are much better since the display is up at eye level instead of down by your hands. Once you get past a couple hours of work, that stuff starts to matter more and more to your neck.

And sadly as I’m in my 40’s I agree with this statement more than ever 😂

 

[Joe Dohn]

To get big work done, you need a good-sized screen... or the patience to try to accomplish the same on tiny screens. For casual notes & consumption, one could get by on a watch-sized screen. But as the work ramps up, more screen generally helps. Editing multiple tracks of video or audio on a phone-sized screen seems towards nightmarish. Laying out a new edition of a magazine on a phone-sized screen also seems nightmarish. Etc. There are many scenarios where having expansive screen R.E. is an absolute productivity benefit with no way to work as well on relatively micro-screens.

But what we must focus on is that phone chips today already have the power to be connected to 40'' screens, if needed, to do most casual tasks – and even some advanced tasks like photo editing, why not?

The little phone in your hand has the processing power of a Macbook. And we have many devices on the market that prove a functional computer in the size of a cellphone is 100% feasible.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

You’re locked into this idea that it’s only about equivalent power. Look around at all the places people use laptops. How do you get the screen, keyboard, pad, speakers in all of those places? Do vendors and airlines and trains and hotels and coffee shops and snack bars and <all the others too> provide them, maintain them, clean them after so many hands touch them, etc?

A powerful SOC may be small enough to put into a watch or maybe even a ring eventually but where does “the rest” come from to replace the laptop experience? Where’s the big screen? Where’s the keyboard? Pad or mouse? Speakers? Who is paying to provide those everywhere one might use a laptop now? Why are those buyers motivated to provide them, maintain them, clean them, etc?

I offered up Vpro as a possibility but still have the bottom half of a MB paired with it. That delivers all of the key parts of a laptop anywhere one wants to use a laptop. A M5 phone with macOS still needs “the rest.” Or maybe a shrinking ray to shrink the user down to a size so the the phone screen seems relatively equivalent to 13” or bigger… plus tiny keyboard, tiny pad, etc.

 

[Joe Dohn]

A powerful SOC may be small enough to put into a watch or maybe even a ring eventually but where does “the rest” come from to replace the laptop experience? Where’s the big screen? Where’s the keyboard? Pad or mouse? Speakers? Who is paying to provide those everywhere one might use a laptop now? Why are those buyers motivated to provide them, maintain them, clean them, etc?

If it's only a matter of processing power, you can create a notebook-like dock with speakers and remove the core unit when needed. Or go for a tablet-like format and implement a detachable keyboard (the Surface does that, for example). It really depends on your use case, but from a purely technical point of view, a mobile chip is less and less of a compromise for basic tasks.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

I'm fully agreeing with you on the every-growing power of mobile silicon... just not the "downfall of laptops" part... because I don't see the path to laptop replacement parts & pieces in support of individuals just using their super power phone or watch or ring. Somebody has to provide the bigger screen. Somebody needs to provide the keyboard. Mouse or track pad? Etc.

Else, we already have super-powerful mobile chips in our iDevices now... and yet laptops still sell better than desktops. Where's the downfall "early adopters"?

I'm personally interested in laptop replacement but from a different perspective. I want more screen R.E. than 16"... not less. But I don't want heavier folding laptop screens, rolling screens, etc. So I'm looking at Vpro and wondering if IT offers a path to laptop replacement (albeit for only some people). In it, I see the laptop replacement part I want most- a much bigger screen on which to do work. What I don't see in it (alone) is the same thing I don't see with this idea: where's the rest of the stuff valued in a laptop (basically the bottom half of a laptop)? So I'm imagining the bottom half of a MB + Vpro in a laptop-like bag. That seems quite viable as laptop replacement because it has all of the key pieces AND delivers the bigger screen.

This idea will need all the places we use in laptops with some kind of near ubiquitous public versions of "the rest," so one could plug in their phone or watch or ring or amulet for the CPU super power to then be utilized in a laptop-like way because all these other parties have generously provided "the rest." I don't see what motivates "them" to do that, maintain it, keep it clean, etc.

There is an example of this now: public libraries will offer whole computer setups and people certainly file in there one after another to use them. But libraries are not for-profit motivated but publicly funded. Why do those who focus much harder on bottom line profit get so generous in providing "the rest" all over the many places people now use laptops?

Else, individuals need to carry "the rest" in some other form... like Vpro for the screen and still some kind of keyboard and mouse/pad too. That's plausible and one can look at Surface and similar to see some of that now. But when that's in unassembled parts, it's not too hard to look back at the all-assembled-together laptop and possibly prefer the thinner, all-encompassing package. After all, a separate screen can seem about as good- could even come in 16" size, but then you have a harder job keeping it balanced on that lap without any anchor to anything else.

Again, I fully get your perspective about mobile power. I just struggle to see how the "downfall" part arrives since it hasn't already.

 

[Joe Dohn]

Again, I fully get your perspective about mobile power. I just struggle to see how the "downfall" part arrives since it hasn't already.

There was another impediment for that: as you probably know, mobile chips traditionally are much weaker than desktops in video processing power.

However, that is also changing because mobile chips are becoming powerful enough to run triple-A games (like you see in GPD 4). Sure, they're power hungry and still not as good as a dedicated GPU. But 10 years ago, running a triple-A game on a mobile console without changes was not an option at all.

And if you do need a GPU in a mobile device, adding a GPU through a GPU port is becoming cheaper and easier. There's still a penalty for that, since those ports don't have the required bandwidth yet, but that penalty is decreasing. The estimation is that with USB-4, that penalty will become small to nonexistent. And as USB-4 becomes more and more popular, it won't be limited just to high performance devices.

So, eventually, the downfall may happen either because the onboard graphics chips are good enough, or running eGPUs will be easy and accessible enough.