The new 12” MacBook (2023/24)

[MF878]

Originally posted this in the MacBook forum but that place is dead so reposting here…

With rumors swirling about the return of a 12” MacBook (likely with the M3 generation), I thought I’d take a crack at working out what that could look like in greater detail. All the following assumptions are based on design similarity to the just launched 13.6” MacBook Air, as I think this is the most likely scenario.

Screen Size & Resolution
We already know the minimum width for a 12” MacBook, as the previous design was already as compact as possible while still accomodating a full-size keyboard. If we assume the same bezel width as the new Air to find the physical width of the display, then make a 16:10 aspect ratio, assume 224ppi (like the Air) and add 64px for the notch, the result is a 12.5” display with a resolution of 2352x1534. Any bigger seems unlikely as the gap to the Air is already just 1.1”.

Weight
The last 12” MacBook weighed 2.0 pounds. Assuming identical thickness and density to the new Air results in a weight of 2.3 pounds. This methodology isn’t completely accurate though, as the internal component that shrinks the most is the densest component: the battery. Therefore, I would guess 2.2 pounds. This is a little heavier than the old 12”, but to lose more weight is to lose more battery. Having said that, a more power efficient 3nm M3 might make downsizing to 2.0 pounds more palatable.

Performance
Seeing as we have 11” iPads that run the M1 well enough, I can’t see a 3nm M3 having meaningful thermal constraints in this form factor. I would expect all the same configuration options as the 13.6” Air and largely identical real-world performance, maybe slightly quicker to throttle on sustained workloads.

Price and Positioning
The above specs would make it in essence just a smaller Air, therefore it would make sense to price it slightly below. As the screen size difference is only an inch, I would guess it is only $100 cheaper for the same specs, rather than the $200 difference between the 14” and 16” Pros. The old 12” MacBook never dropped below $1,299 because Intel charged an arm and a leg for the Y-Series chips, and the terraced battery to fit the tapered design was also very costly. Many of the components here would be shared with the Air, with the major differences being display and battery (in both cases, smaller is usually cheaper).

Naming
“MacBook” could make sense if it becomes the new entry point of the lineup, but creates a weird situation (again) where its larger, heavier sibling is called “Air”. “MacBook mini” would mirror the relationship between the iPad mini and the iPad Air, but it could imply that it is weaker or less capable. Currently I am leaning towards it being lumped into the MacBook Air family. This is because I suspect the also rumoured 15” model will have some key differences that make it more deserving of its own moniker, either just “MacBook” or something new (eg. Studio?), as I believe it will effectively replace the 13” Pro as the “semi-pro” option, maintaining differentiators like an unbinned GPU as standard, active cooling, upward-firing speakers, etc.

 

[jav6454]

I'll agree on the screen size and resolutions. Per weight I'll disagree. It'll likely be lighter than the original 2 pounds as this is the M3 which likely will push into fanless and therefor shave weight off.

As per the rest, as a hit and miss given it's based and pure speculation.

 

[MF878]

I'll agree on the screen size and resolutions. Per weight I'll disagree. It'll likely be lighter than the original 2 pounds as this is the M3 which likely will push into fanless and therefor shave weight off.

As per the rest, as a hit and miss given it's based and pure speculation.

Keep in mind that the old 12” was fanless with a max TDP of 7W. It was a weak CPU with extremely weak integrated graphics. The M1 has a TDP of 10W in the fanless MacBook Air, and the M2 has slightly higher peak power consumption in the 10 GPU core variant.

 

[jav6454]

Keep in mind that the old 12” was fanless with a max TDP of 7W. It was a weak CPU with extremely weak integrated graphics. The M1 has a TDP of 10W in the fanless MacBook Air, and the M2 has slightly higher peak power consumption in the 10 GPU core variant.

Well, the M1 is not weak. I doubt an M2 might be used due to the extra wattage required over the M1. After all, this can be an entry-level model.

 

[theorist9]

Weight
The last 12” MacBook weighed 2.0 pounds. Assuming identical thickness and density to the new Air results in a weight of 2.3 pounds. This methodology isn’t completely accurate though, as the internal component that shrinks the most is the densest component: the battery. Therefore, I would guess 2.2 pounds. This is a little heavier than the old 12”, but to lose more weight is to lose more battery. Having said that, a more power efficient 3nm M3 might make downsizing to 2.0 pounds more palatable.

I repeated your calc. and got the same number—2.3 lbs.: 2.7 x (28.05/30.41)^2 = 2.3

My prediction is that, if they build this, they'll wait for N3 or N3E to have a sufficiently high performance/power ratio, and then use either binned/disabled M3/M4 chips or (if disabling the M3/M4 is too expensive) make a lower-powered N3/N3E-based M chip. The latter might not be economical for the MacBook alone, but note that they'll also need to meet the TDP requirements of the iPad Pro's, which use M-series chips and are only 5.9 mm–6.4 mm thick.

Once they do this, they might leverage the low TDP to make the MacBook even thinner than the M2 Air, to get closer to that 2.0 lb. mark.

 

[MF878]

I repeated your calc. and got the same number—2.3 lbs.: 2.7 x (28.05/30.41)^2 = 2.3

My prediction is that, if they build this, they'll wait for N3 or N3E to have a sufficiently high performance/power ratio, and then use either binned/disabled M3/M4 chips or (if disabling the M3/M4 is too expensive) make a lower-powered N3/N3E-based M chip. The latter might not be economical for the MacBook alone, but note that they'll also need to meet the TDP requirements of the iPad Pro's, which use M-series chips and are only 5.9 mm–6.4 mm thick.

Once they do this, they might leverage the low TDP to make the MacBook even thinner than the M2 Air, to get closer to that 2.0 lb. mark.

I would say there isn’t really room for a chip in between the A17 and M3 (assuming they are around the same timeframe with 3nm). It’s possible the lower power consumption of M3 allows them to hit 2.0lbs without nerfing the chip in any way while also achieving battery life goals. Worst case scenario, I think Apple would accept an extra ~0.2lbs over nerfing the chip any more than the exisiting binning scenario with a couple GPU cores.

A 3nm A17 would easily allow for sub-2.0lbs, but I don’t see Apple putting an A-Series level chip in a Mac when we have a $599 iPad Air with M1.

 

[theorist9]

I would say there isn’t really room for a chip in between the A17 and M3 (assuming they are around the same timeframe with 3nm). It’s possible the lower power consumption of M3 allows them to hit 2.0lbs without nerfing the chip in any way while also achieving battery life goals. Worst case scenario, I think Apple would accept an extra ~0.2lbs over nerfing the chip any more than the exisiting binning scenario with a couple GPU cores.

A 3nm A17 would easily allow for sub-2.0lbs, but I don’t see Apple putting an A-Series level chip in a Mac when we have a $599 iPad Air with M1.

The reason I mentioned nerfing the chip is that the M2 has a higher power consumption than the M1, even though it's based on N5P, which TMSC says has (for equal microarchitectures) a 10% lower power consumption than the N5 used in the M1. That's, I believe, largely because of M2's extra GPU cores (in the non-binned config). Thus it's possible an N3-based M3 would have an even higher power consumption than the M2 (if they add even more cores), in spite of N3's inherently lower power consumption. Hence the potential need to nerf the chip for the iPad Pro's or a 12" MacBook.

 

[MF878]

Very crude mockups, but wanted to get some idea of how the estimated 12.5” size would look in practice compared to the 13.6” Air.

 

[MayaUser]

this is just a dream or wishful thinking since the 12" could never come

 

[AltecX]

this is just a dream or wishful thinking since the 12" could never come

Apple did send out surveys a while back asking 12in owners for feedback on their device. So, it's clearly something they are thinking of. I suspect the 13.6in Air will replace the 13in Pro, and a 12.5-13in MacBook will be the new entry level.

 

[EugW]

Screen Size & Resolution
We already know the minimum width for a 12” MacBook, as the previous design was already as compact as possible while still accomodating a full-size keyboard. If we assume the same bezel width as the new Air to find the physical width of the display, then make a 16:10 aspect ratio, assume 224ppi (like the Air) and add 64px for the notch, the result is a 12.5” display with a resolution of 2352x1534. Any bigger seems unlikely as the gap to the Air is already just 1.1”.

Yeah, I too have said before in other threads that ~12.5" would be a good size, based on back-of-the-napkin resolution calculations, chassis footprint, and recent reduced bezel sizing.

Keep in mind that the old 12” was fanless with a max TDP of 7W. It was a weak CPU with extremely weak integrated graphics. The M1 has a TDP of 10W in the fanless MacBook Air, and the M2 has slightly higher peak power consumption in the 10 GPU core variant.

I've always believed that Ax chips are fast enough for a 12" Mac and even a MacBook Air. In fact back in 2020, I incorrectly predicted that the MacBook Air would have an A14 chip, possibly higher binned, reserving the A14X (aka M1) for the MacBook Pro. The main issue with Ax was the I/O support, but that incorrect prediction included the belief that such an A14 Mac design would somehow get around that. Well, I was wrong on M1's usage, and I'm glad (although that does make the 13" MacBook Pro a very weird product in Apple's current lineup). The other possibilities are that Apple could simply allow a 12" Mac to throttle more, or else use some sort of binning. IF (and this is a big "IF") Apple were to release a 12" Mac, my bet would be on full Mx but with well managed throttling.

Plus, doesn't M1 have more built-in I/O features than Intel's chips from 2017?

However, at this point I'm 80% sure we won't see anything smaller than at the 13.x" Air anytime soon. I hope I'm wrong on that too.

 

[jdb8167]

Weight
The last 12” MacBook weighed 2.0 pounds. Assuming identical thickness and density to the new Air results in a weight of 2.3 pounds. This methodology isn’t completely accurate though, as the internal component that shrinks the most is the densest component: the battery. Therefore, I would guess 2.2 pounds. This is a little heavier than the old 12”, but to lose more weight is to lose more battery. Having said that, a more power efficient 3nm M3 might make downsizing to 2.0 pounds more palatable

If they can't keep it well under 1 kg then I don't see the point. You would just have a slightly smaller and crappier MacBook Air.

 

[Tagbert]

Your estimates look good. I do think that it would make more sense for it to get a MacBook Air name. It would be thin, light, and inexpensive (relatively), all are “air” characteristics. The previous “MacBook” name was never a good fit and was clearly part of Apple’s original plan to replace the Air with the MacBook. When they couldn’t get the price down and the performance or sales up, they seem to have accepted that their low end laptops would remain as “airs”.

 

[Pugly]

I was thinking about holding out for this sort of Mac... the M1 Air was just too good and still pretty light and small. I think my predictions have been true, Apple isn't pursuing a smaller Mac on a quick timeframe. The M2 Mac is good, but with an increased price. And Apple doesn't want to change too much about the general size of Airs.

I'd like for it to retain the wedge shape though... but that's probably going away for the near future. And the dimension I care about shrinking the most is depth, you can put it on much smaller tables or use it on your lap easier in cramped spaces. People always use iPads as media devices, but a tiny laptop comes with its own stand I've found easier to deal with than any iPad folding case.

Reduced weight is also important to me, that's always appreciated. With the 11" Air compared to the new Air, the ½ pound difference was very noticeable. Anything closer to 2lbs would be ideal.

 

[Admiral]

If this device is coming in late 2023/early 2024 with a 3nm "M3" generation, I would sincerely hope that even the base device will be able to drive two 5K/6K monitors as a two-pound desktop replacement.

 

[DHagan4755]

Perhaps it will be a pro model. Since Apple has seemed to be doing some retro things, this could be a possibility. The 12" PowerBook G4 was coveted by a lot of people back in the day.

 

[Tagbert]

Perhaps it will be a pro model. Since Apple has seemed to be doing some retro things, this could be a possibility. The 12" PowerBook G4 was coveted by a lot of people back in the day.

The things that characterize the Pro models in Apples laptop line, more powerful chips, more ports, and larger screens are unlikely to make the cut on a laptop as small as a 12” MacBook Air. Would you be OK if it had a 12” screen but was as thick and heavy as a 14” MBP?

 

[DHagan4755]

The things that characterize the Pro models in Apples laptop line, more powerful chips, more ports, and larger screens are unlikely to make the cut on a laptop as small as a 12” MacBook Air. Would you be OK if it had a 12” screen but was a think and heavy as a 14” MBP?

Wonders never cease my friend.

 

[MayaUser]

Apple did send out surveys a while back asking 12in owners for feedback on their device. So, it's clearly something they are thinking of. I suspect the 13.6in Air will replace the 13in Pro, and a 12.5-13in MacBook will be the new entry level.

i bet Apple is thinking and making plans for hundreds of things but just a few saw the light of the day....same with patents
I think the 15" Mba is a more believable rumours
But dont get me wrong, dream dream on, maybe it will happen and i will be happy since a lot of users want a "tablet weight/dimension" with a keyboard and trackpad attached running macOS

 

[Bel Marduk]

What makes you so convinced that there will be a new model like this? The MacBook Air 11 was my favorite computer ever and I'd buy an updated version on the first day if it were available.

 

[Kdvl7]

Should the rumors be true, Apple would bring back the MacBook line - once more? Do they know at least what they are aiming for, then? I mean, the MacBook has been discontinued in 2011, then brought back in 2015 and again removed in 2019... only to be brought back (again) hypothetically in 2023? If yes, for how long?

Bringing back the MacBook line in the catalog would indeed make sense compared to the iPad line:

- MacBook / iPad (lower end devices)
- MacBook Air / iPad Air (mid-range devices)
- MacBook Pro / iPad Pro (higher end devices)

Then, the "classic" MacBook would have to be much cheaper than the MacBook Air. In other words; it should be a "low cost" notebook by Apple's standards (M1/M2 chip, poor connectivity, Liquid Retina display...).

As for the MacBook Air M1 and MacBook Pro M2, they will very likely be discontinued.

 

[darngooddesign]

Perhaps it will be a pro model. Since Apple has seemed to be doing some retro things, this could be a possibility. The 12" PowerBook G4 was coveted by a lot of people back in the day.

I had the first-gen 12" Powerbake Pro, it was quite the little lap roaster. Loved it and the speakers were excellent because they reflected a subwoofer off the screen.

 

[DHagan4755]

I had the first-gen 12" Powerbake Pro, it was quite the little lap roaster. Loved it and the speakers were excellent because they reflected a subwoofer off the screen.

Yes it was quite the crotch cooker.