The "Wait for Apple Silicon vs Buy Intel Now" question with a twist

[maswriter]

I was planning to wait for Apple Silicon Macs until the keyboard on my 4.5-year-old 13" MBP started to conk out on me. (I tried using compressed air to clean the keyboard and reset procedures to no avail. This really seems like a hardware problem. Any other suggestions are welcome.) I can muddle through with an external keyboard, but who knows how long it will be until the Apple Silicon MBPs arrive, and if they will work well when they get here. I can get a 13" 2020 MBP on sale now at Costco. I'm not sure if I should get it or hold out for the Apple Silicon MBPs get here.

I escaped trouble when I bought my 13" 2015 model shortly before the redesigned MBPs came out. I avoided the butterfly keyboard fiasco and all the other problems. I'm concerned about how much I'll miss out on if I don't wait for Apple Silicon.

What do you suggest in my suggestion, wait or buy now? Your insights are helpful. Thanks.

 

[glenthompson]

I feel your pain. Do you want to buy the last Intel Mac or the first ASi Mac? I didn’t like that option as I needed to update my 2011 MBP and opted to pickup a 2015 Air to tide me over until the ASi dust settles. In two years or so I plan to upgrade to a new Mac.

 

[ActionableMango]

Personally I'd get the current Intel MBP. It's no slouch and will serve you fine for another 4-5 years, by which time you'll be able to buy mature ARM Macs and all the transitional issues are sorted out.

 

[cardfan]

Easy choice. Get one now. Best of the intels. Vs getting the initial AS Mac that can’t run anything natively hardly.

 

[nothingtoseehere]

I have the same machine. It is still qualified for the official battery exchange by Apple for around $200€. When they changed my battery earlier this year, also the keyboard/trackpad component had been replaced. Dunno if Apple will do this when they detect that there are keyboard issues but maybe worth a try?

 

[Mikael H]

Easy choice. Get one now. Best of the intels. Vs getting the initial AS Mac that can’t run anything natively hardly.

Isn't that slightly alarmist?
I expect all Apple software to work out of the box. MS Office which many need has been promised to be ported as has Adobes Creative Suite. Anybody who is popular on the app store and wants to remain so will need to port their software within at the latest a few months, and the enthusiast software companies will surely already have done their job on DTKs.

Some specialty software which has been dependent on kernel extensions will need to be adjusted to the new normal (think VPN clients, etc), and software with passive developers and/or bad developer habits will need to be ported - but most of that bunch probably disappeared already when macOS went 64-bit only.

In short: If you need a computer now, get one but know it won't last forever. For private use it's more than likely an ASi Mac will do everything you need right from the start. Some corporate use cases may take a while longer to be useful, or may even require a move to other operating systems in time.

 

[Tankmaze]

I'm still using 15" MBP 2015, both of the speakers are crackling but I use external speakers because 80% of the time I use it as desktop where I attach external monitor, keyboard and mouse.

I'm 100% certain if you don't use Apple Silicon Macs you would miss out on future OS X updates. As I'm probably guessing Apple will drop support for Intel Macs in the next 2 major OS updates.

And my current machine can still be upgraded to Big Sur, which I'm guessing would still be available to upgrade until the last version of Intel OSX until Apple goes all Apple Silicon OSX.

So for me I am definitely waiting for AS MBP and I can live without bootcamp.
And that is my insights hope it helps in your decision.

 

[leman]

I would not but a 13” MBP now. It’s just bad value. Frankly, if I were in your situation I’d get a cheap external keyboard and struggle through the next months or two. The 13” is very likely to get an update by the end of October, either Apple Silicon or Intel Tiger Lake.

 

[dugbug]

Just get an external keyboard for these last few weeks. You only have a month to go more or less and will be more informed as to what these new models will offer

 

[dogslobber]

The first ARM Macs will be pretty poor if precedent is anything to go buy. Probably the third revision is when they’ll start to have utility. Remember most third party software will be supported on Intel Macs for years to come as they have a massive install base. Further, an Intel Mac bought now will have greater longevity in software and mature hardware. Never buy the first iteration of Apple hardware or you’ll regret it. The last remaining Intel ?Macs rolling off the production line are the gold standard. They also run other OS unlike the locked down ARM Macs.

 

[thenewperson]

The first ARM Macs will be pretty poor if precedent is anything to go buy

What precedent?

 

[theluggage]

I can get a 13" 2020 MBP on sale now at Costco. I'm not sure if I should get it or hold out for the Apple Silicon MBPs get here.

There seems to be a mixture of absurd pessimism and equally absurd optimism about how compatible the first ASi MBPs are going to be.

Here's how I see it:

- if you rely on x86 virtualisation or Bootcamp to run software that needs decent performance you are probably going to need to re-think your workflow. There will doubtless be solutions involving emulation, translation or virtual cloud PCs - maybe virtual Windows 10 for ARM (double maybe with its x86 emulation), definitely ARM Linux - but they're not going to be perfect, unlikely to perform anything like as well as native Bootcamp and they may not be there on day #1. If this affects you, I'd get a new x86 Mac now - or plan to supplement your future ASi Mac with a PC.

- Not all Mac software is going to be native on day #1 - Rosatta2 promises to solve most of those problems and, if you listen to the optimists, it may be set to surprise people with its performance. Some things will fall through the gaps and you'll have to wait for native versions - some will never get fixed. However - while it is no consolation - there is no room for abandonware in the Mac world, and anything not actively maintained is likely to break with or without ASi (if it hasn't already been broken by Catalina and the end of 32 bit support). However - other software is going to hit the ground runnng, for many modern XCode-based Apps "going native" will be trivial. You should be able to hazard a guess from the "history" of the apps that you use which ones are going to be a problem (e.g. if you're still waiting for the Catalina version of something today then it probably ain't gonna be an early bird on ASi).

- Logic and FCPx will probably be native (or, at least, fine with Rosetta2) on day 1, maybe things like Photoshop and Office which were namechecked at WWDC, but what I'd worry about are whatever third-party plugins you have for any of those. By necessity, some of those won't be released, or will be buggy, until the "parent" application has been upgraded - and probably some won't make it. I'd be most worried about any hardware that needs a kernel driver (...as opposed to an 'app' front end) because hardware makers have a ...potential conflict of interest if they think that they can sell more new hardware by abandoning their drivers. Again - if you've been using products for years over several OS upgrades you can probably name the "usual suspects".

Really, just as it is "courageous"to install a new OS on day one, if you rely on your Mac for your livelihood then, when it comes to ASi, remember that the early worm gets the bird and maybe hold back for a few months and leave the teething problems to those with more than one Mac and/or who quite enjoy solving tech problems.

Personally, I'd look into getting your existing MBP repaired - maybe it will be disproportionately expensive, but, if not, the best way to get started on ASi will be if you have a viable fallback machine...

 

[317342]

Need Now: Buy Now
Need Later: Buy Later

 

[jazz1]

I think part of the "Buy Now" vs. "Buy Later" is only a bit of a "nail-bitter".

For those that "Buy Now" is there going to be a double reckoning?

1. Will the Intel Macs prices drop significantly when the ARM Macs come out?

2. Will the ARM Macs models immediately available have that much better performance over the Intels?

As much as I want 1 & 2 to happen I am guessing that the roll out of the various ARM toting Macs will be so "slo-mo" there will be no fire sale on the Intel Macs.

From what I'm reading from other people's guesstimates a huge jump in speed performance won't happen for awhile, and probably be reserved for higher end Macs. I won't go so far as to say the first ARM will be experimental.

I will joyfully eat my words should my crystal ball ultimately crack with my wrong predictions

 

[Bravo2zero]

I think part of the "Buy Now" vs. "Buy Later" is only a bit of a "nail-bitter".

For those that "Buy Now" is there going to be a double reckoning?

1. Will the Intel Macs prices drop significantly when the ARM Macs come out?

2. Will the ARM Macs models immediately available have that much better performance over the Intels?

As much as I want 1 & 2 to happen I am guessing that the roll out of the various ARM toting Macs will be so "slo-mo" there will be no fire sale on the Intel Macs.

From what I'm reading from other people's guesstimates a huge jump in speed performance won't happen for awhile, and probably be reserved for higher end Macs. I won't go so far as to say the first ARM will be experimental.

I will joyfully eat my words should my crystal ball ultimately crack with my wrong predictions

The 2018 Mac mini is now under £400 in the UK and as little as £420 on UK ebay new sealed. The ONLY thing stopping me pulling the trigger is the pee poor 128GB SSD they get shipped with as I need 256mb as that's what's in the 2012 one now.

 

[jazz1]

That 2018 Mac mini price is tempting. What CPU does it have? Would an external hard drive work to bump up storage?
I've been eyeing one up here in the USA. But the third party unopened box from Apple only get up to 256GB. I don't know why the third party doesn't offer something bigger.

 

[Blair Paulsen]

If your normal usage is pushing the performance limitations of your 2015 MBP - and - your critical app(s) are FCP-X, Logic, or anything else likely to be AS optimized early on - then wait. Otherwise, I don't see much downside to getting an Intel based laptop at a decent price with a full warrantee. Unless you're planning to resell it in the near term, it's "street value" doesn't really impact you.

 

[Bravo2zero]

That 2018 Mac mini price is tempting. What CPU does it have? Would an external hard drive work to bump up storage?
I've been eyeing one up here in the USA. But the third party unopened box from Apple only get up to 256GB. I don't know why the third party doesn't offer something bigger.

The base model i3 ,8gb , 128gb SSD.

 

[maswriter]

Thank you all for your comments and suggestions. I decided to get the 16" MacBook Pro at Costco with 16 GB RAM and 1 TB hard drive. I tried the 13", but I found it too small, even compared to my current MBP. Also, 512 GB SSD wasn't enough space for my long-term needs. My current files and programs would have taken more than half the disk space.

I'm impressed with the new Magic Keyboard, and having a larger screen helps me work with multiple programs. The Touch Bar is growing on me. I got an Anker 7-port USB-C hub, and it's working out well my Seagate backup drive with the USB-A connector.

My new laptop will be good for at least the next 4–5 years, and its higher performance will enable me to do more with video. I'm happy with my upgrade. I figure Apple Silicon can wait. Thanks again for your help.

 

[cardfan]

Thank you all for your comments and suggestions. I decided to get the 16" MacBook Pro at Costco with 16 GB RAM and 1 TB hard drive. I tried the 13", but I found it too small, even compared to my current MBP. Also, 512 GB SSD wasn't enough space for my long-term needs. My current files and programs would have taken more than half the disk space.

I'm impressed with the new Magic Keyboard, and having a larger screen helps me work with multiple programs. The Touch Bar is growing on me. I got an Anker 7-port USB-C hub, and it's working out well my Seagate backup drive with the USB-A connector.

My new laptop will be good for at least the next 4–5 years, and its higher performance will enable me to do more with video. I'm happy with my upgrade. I figure Apple Silicon can wait. Thanks again for your help.

View attachment 958968

Good choice. You’ll have several years to consider AS and avoid the initial headaches it’ll bring.

 

[ChrisA]

I was planning to wait for Apple Silicon Macs until the keyboard on my 4.5-year-old 13" MBP started to conk out on me....

What do you suggest in my suggestion, wait or buy now? Your insights are helpful. Thanks.

What you don't tell us is what software you use and what you do with the Mac.

If all you run is the web browser then just buy a Chromebook and be done with it. But maybe you need to run Microsoft Office, Adobe's suite of products, or other 3rd party software? It will be a while until this is converted to run natively on ARM.

If you depend on VMware to run a Windows or Linux VM then you really need an Intel-based Mac.

But if you are only using Apple's software then you can buy the ARM Mac as I'm sure Apple has ported their own software.

In my case I use Autodesk's "Fusion 360" 3D CAD software and it now appears I will never be able to run it on ARM. I'll have to change platforms

 

[ader42]

I get tired of people telling others to avoid first gen.

I’ve bought first generation Macs every single time Apple has switched processors starting with 0x0 Quadra and LC475, then PowerPC, then Intel. I never regretted any of them.

They all worked perfectly, did everything I needed and lasted me years; usually my Macs last me 6 years or so before I uograde. I happen to be due an upgrade so will choosing an AS Mac sooner rather than later.

 

[Kostask]

Apple generally gets most first release hardware right (the butterfly keyboard being an exception, but that stands out because Apple almost never screws up that badly). They also are pretty good at fixing any screw ups with extended warranties (as in the aforementioned butterfly keyboard and previously, the nVidia grpahics cards/modules in the laptops_.

I personally would have just stayed with the 13" MacBook Pro, either using ean external keyboard, or having a third party repair done until the specifications of the AS Macs were made more visible. I would then decide to go with either the 16" MBP, as you did, or jump to the AS Mac. If you needed Windows, you would still have the 13" MBP on hand for that. Unless the 13" MBP is a very low configured machine, it will do fine for another couple of years until the whole AS Mac-Windows situation is clarified.

 

[b0fh]

What you don't tell us is what software you use and what you do with the Mac.

But maybe you need to run Microsoft Office, Adobe's suite of products, or other 3rd party software?

Uh, Office and Adobe was specifically mentioned as being ARM ready...

 

[b0fh]

I get tired of people telling others to avoid first gen.

I’ve bought first generation Macs every single time Apple has switched processors starting with 0x0 Quadra and LC475, then PowerPC, then Intel. I never regretted any of them.

They all worked perfectly, did everything I needed and lasted me years; usually my Macs last me 6 years or so before I uograde. I happen to be due an upgrade so will choosing an AS Mac sooner rather than later.

Yeah, I had the first ten x86 MacBooks too and they were amazing for a long time. I must have used the heck out of them until they weren't supported by the OS upgrades any more. Looking back, 2BG of ram... wow!