Thought experiment: What if Apple stops making computers one day?

[richmlow]

Hi All,


The other day, I was just thinking about this very question, eg. "What if Apple stops making computers one day?"

As a big Mac enthusiast, I hope that this does not happen!

However, if it did, would it really affect your workflow daily needs?

With the advent of Apple Silicon (and its power-efficiency benefits), there are also "negatives" (eg. RAM constraint ceilings, upgradability issues). While it is understandable that Apple wishes to use common chips in all of their hardware (iPhone, iPad, AppleTV, computers, etc), it seems to me that Apple is trying to fit a "square peg in a round hole." In particular, currently all of the Apple Silicon computers are constrained by RAM ceilings and upgradability. Why would I buy a brand new "state of the art" Apple Silicon machine when ordinary tasks can be accomplished using a ChromeBook? Further yet, the current Apple Silicon computers are not adequate for "professional use" in instances where high RAM and expandability are needed.

What are your thoughts??

Just a though experiment.....


All the best,
richmlow

 

[sam_dean]

Mac disapearing would have to do with consumers buying a Mac.

If everyone were to replace their Macs every 120 months after the last macOS Security Update being released then the product line will close.

But Apple knows that a typical Mac user replaces every four years.

This is a big change from the '90s and '00s where replacement cycle is three years or less.

Are you planning to replace your 2013 Mac Pro Xeon with a 2023 Mac Pro M2 Ultra?

 

[richmlow]

Mac disapearing would have to do with consumers buying a Mac.

If everyone were to replace their Macs every 120 months after the last macOS Security Update being released then the product line will close.

But Apple knows that a typical Mac user replaces every four years.

This is a big change from the '90s and '00s where replacement cycle is three years or less.

Are you planning to replace your 2013 Mac Pro Xeon with a 2023 Mac Pro M2 Ultra?

Hello sam_dean,


Your question "Are you planning to replace your 2013 Mac Pro Xeon with a 2023 Mac Pro M2 Ultra" is a great question!

The answer is very dependent on the tech specs for the anticipated 2023 Mac Pro. This next computer purchase will be used specifically for mathematics research. As such, I want to have the following:

192GB RAM
16-cores

I will not have extensive need for GPU capabilities.

An additional challenge is that Apple (currently) designs and sells "throw-away" computers. Almost all of the hardware is locked-down with no expandability/upgrade/repair options. To further compound the problem, Apple releases poor quality OS versions every year. The current Apple computer platform (laptop, all-in-one, desktop) does not have the longevity of the Apple computers of times past.


All the best,
richmlow

 

[ivnj]

A few years before the melenium like bak in OS9 days they said the same thing. But then they bounced back with OSX and new designs and revived the company. The only way they will go out of business is if I convince everybody to eat healthy and exercise every day and stop staring at their computer. But that will never happen.

 

[richmlow]

A few years before the melenium like bak in OS9 days they said the same thing. But then they bounced back with OSX and new designs and revived the company. The only way they will go out of business is if I convince everybody to eat healthy and exercise every day and stop staring at their computer. But that will never happen.

Hell ivnj,


I think that Apple really needs to get serious about macOS. I haven't really seen any meaningful improvements in the evolution of macOS in the last 10 or so years! All Apple does is just add silly "bells and whistles" / features that look good in keynote announcements, but which most people don't end up using!


All the best,
richmlow

 

[sam_dean]

Hello sam_dean,


Your question "Are you planning to replace your 2013 Mac Pro Xeon with a 2023 Mac Pro M2 Ultra" is a great question!

The answer is very dependent on the tech specs for the anticipated 2023 Mac Pro. This next computer purchase will be used specifically for mathematics research. As such, I want to have the following:

192GB RAM
16-cores

I will not have extensive need for GPU capabilities.

An additional challenge is that Apple (currently) designs and sells "throw-away" computers. Almost all of the hardware is locked-down with no expandability/upgrade/repair options. To further compound the problem, Apple releases poor quality OS versions every year. The current Apple computer platform (laptop, all-in-one, desktop) does not have the longevity of the Apple computers of times past.


All the best,
richmlow

My worry with my 2012 iMac 27" is that at 10years old it may eventually fall victim to catastrophic hardware failure where in my data will be lost.

I am fairly certain that Mac Pro will have upgrade/repair/expandability options but it may be at a $6k or higher base price point.

 

[russell_314]

Hi All,


The other day, I was just thinking about this very question, eg. "What if Apple stops making computers one day?"

As a big Mac enthusiast, I hope that this does not happen!

It won't happen in my lifetime. Beyond that who knows.

However, if it did, would it really affect your workflow daily needs?

Yes and no. Will I be able to get everything done yes but not as easily.

With the advent of Apple Silicon (and its power-efficiency benefits), there are also "negatives" (eg. RAM constraint ceilings, upgradability issues). While it is understandable that Apple wishes to use common chips in all of their hardware (iPhone, iPad, AppleTV, computers, etc), it seems to me that Apple is trying to fit a "square peg in a round hole." In particular, currently all of the Apple Silicon computers are constrained by RAM ceilings and upgradability.

This is more thought than reality. Upgrades are either something you do because you want to tinker or you didn't buy the correct configuration and want to fix that. Short of replacing the spinning hard drive with an SSD on an older computer I can't think of any upgrade that makes sense. Even if you're talking about a gaming desktop by the time you really need a GPU upgrade then it's silly to do this without upgrading your CPU and that means a whole new computer except the case.

Why would I buy a brand new "state of the art" Apple Silicon machine when ordinary tasks can be accomplished using a ChromeBook?

Why buy a Mercedes when you can get from A to B in a Honda? Because it has features that some people want. I'm typing this on a Chromebook right now. That doesn't mean I would want to do everything on it. I wouldn't want to be stuck with Google office or the web version of MS Office. I like having iMessage on my Mac. The keyboard feels better on my Mac to me even though I don't have a cheap Chromebook. Of course all these are my needs and wants and for you maybe the Chromebook works just fine and makes you happy. That's what so many people in these forums forget. Not everyone has the same needs, wants and use case for their computers. I see people pushing 16 GB of RAM before the person even says what they use it for. Why? Because they need 16 GB of RAM so everyone else must as well.

Further yet, the current Apple Silicon computers are not adequate for "professional use" in instances where high RAM and expandability are needed.

Yes I think certain high end professionals need a Mac Pro and that's not out yet. I don't mean people with deep pockets who want to buy one for benchmarks and bragging rights. I mean people who use it for work. Of course if someone has the money and wants to brag then I don't care. If it makes them happy

 

[russell_314]

My worry with my 2012 iMac 27" is that at 10years old it may eventually fall victim to catastrophic hardware failure where in my data will be lost.

I am fairly certain that Mac Pro will have upgrade/repair/expandability options but it may be at a $6k or higher base price point.

Backup your data... Backup your data... Even on a brand new computer things can go bad. You should have at least one copy of your data that is not physically connected to your computer. External hard drives are stupid cheap now. I've lost data because I've failed to back it up so I've learned the hard way.

Also why are you considering a Mac Pro to replace a ten year old iMac? The base $599 Mac mini is in a whole new realm compared to your iMac. Are you doing something that needs more than 96 GB or RAM?

 

[sam_dean]

Backup your data... Backup your data... Even on a brand new computer things can go bad. You should have at least one copy of your data that is not physically connected to your computer. External hard drives are stupid cheap now. I've lost data because I've failed to back it up so I've learned the hard way.

Also why are you considering a Mac Pro to replace a ten year old iMac? The base $599 Mac mini is in a whole new realm compared to your iMac. Are you doing something that needs more than 96 GB or RAM?

I Time Machine my data with an external USB drive & ethernet NAS.

But it does not negate that a 10yo iMac had its final macOS Security Update more than 5 months ago.

So other than hardware failure that would disrupt my day/week I fear hacking on macOS that will never get another Security Update again.

I was replying to @richmlow wanting another Mac Pro to replace his 2013 model. Last Pro desktop I had was a 2001 Power Mac G4 and I had zero utility for the internal expansion slots. If a Mac Studio was available back 22 years ago I'd have bought that instead.

I kept my iMac for 10 years because I have not changed my use case since 2015 and I was still receiving macOS Security Updates until last Jul 2022.

I demand iMac 27" replacement and have little interest on a Studio Display + Mac mini/Studio combination as I have little interest in a 4-5-6 year replacement cycle. If this year a replacement were to come out by Jun 2023 I'd keep it until Jun 2033.

If by some miracle that the 2023 iMac 27" replacement came with a A16 Bionic 4nm chip as a base model I'd buy it as it is still more powerful than a 2012 Core i7 22nm chip.

Law of diminishing returns comes into play here... an upgrade is meaningful to me for

- new hardware & warranty
- more than halving power consumption & waste heat
- macOS Security Update until 2033
- faster RAW image processing of a 2015 Canon EOS 5Ds R 51 megapixel camera.

 

[kschendel]

Hi All,


The other day, I was just thinking about this very question, eg. "What if Apple stops making computers one day?"

By "computers" I assume you mean laptops and desktops. Just about everything Apple makes has a computer in it. An iPhone is more computer than phone.

...In particular, currently all of the Apple Silicon computers are constrained by RAM ceilings and upgradability.

As others have said, upgradability is only an issue if you need to upgrade something. I'm typing this on a late 2013 rMBP, base model except for 16GB memory (because I sometimes need ro run VM's on it), and I've felt zero need to upgrade anything. Upgradability is much more expensive than most people realize; it's more efficient and cheaper to buy a configuration that's fit for purpose in the first place. For most people (not everyone), the days of needing to upgrade just to be able to run daily tasks are long past.

And as for Mac OS being stagnant, a lot has happened under the covers. I personally would just as soon that they leave the user facing stuff alone, because it works just fine and there's no need to fiddle with it just for the sake of fiddling.

Anyway, to answer the question, I'd probably turn to a linux laptop if I had to. I wouldn't particularly want to; I use linux every day, but Mac OS is a better "office" machine for me.

 

[ajf.350d]

I’d just go back to using Windows 😁
I’ve used both regularly over the years so wouldn’t be a problem.
Same with the hardware. There are in fact some very good Intel powered laptops out there…

 

[russell_314]

I Time Machine my data with an external USB drive & ethernet NAS.

But it does not negate that a 10yo iMac had its final macOS Security Update more than 5 months ago.

So other than hardware failure that would disrupt my day/week I fear hacking on macOS that will never get another Security Update again.

While you do get security updates on an older version of macOS you don't get the same level of security as running the current version. A lot of people are confused by this.

I was replying to @richmlow wanting another Mac Pro to replace his 2013 model. Last Pro desktop I had was a 2001 Power Mac G4 and I had zero utility for the internal expansion slots. If a Mac Studio was available back 22 years ago I'd have bought that instead.

I kept my iMac for 10 years because I have not changed my use case since 2015 and I was still receiving macOS Security Updates until last Jul 2022.

I demand iMac 27" replacement and have little interest on a Studio Display + Mac mini/Studio combination as I have little interest in a 4-5-6 year replacement cycle. If this year a replacement were to come out by Jun 2023 I'd keep it until Jun 2033.

Well I hope you find the iMac that fits your needs. There has been rumors of a 30" iMac but so far nothing. A ten year replacement cycle is not ideal but if that's what you want do then it's your choice.

If by some miracle that the 2023 iMac 27" replacement came with a A16 Bionic 4nm chip as a base model I'd buy it as it is still more powerful than a 2012 Core i7 22nm chip.

I think the base M1 chip is considerably more powerful than a 2012 i7. Maybe in 2023 you'll get your wish with that 27" M3 iMac!

 

[russell_314]

I’d just go back to using Windows 😁
I’ve used both regularly over the years so wouldn’t be a problem.
Same with the hardware. There are in fact some very good Intel powered laptops out there…

I've seen some nice Windows laptops out there. I really like some of the Lenovo Thinkpad models. You won't get nearly the battery life as a Mac but most people don't really need that much battery.

 

[sam_dean]

While you do get security updates on an older version of macOS you don't get the same level of security as running the current version. A lot of people are confused by this.


Well I hope you find the iMac that fits your needs. There has been rumors of a 30" iMac but so far nothing. A ten year replacement cycle is not ideal but if that's what you want do then it's your choice.


I think the base M1 chip is considerably more powerful than a 2012 i7. Maybe in 2023 you'll get your wish with that 27" M3 iMac!

In my mind what I get excluded from is the Software features that 2022 macOS Ventura gets. While nice to have it does not really meaningfully detract my use of the Mac with 2019 macOS Catalina.

In the same way I am happy with 2001 Windows XP over 2015 Windows 10. I only got Windows 10 because of the Security Updates and patches that correct software errors. I'd only move to 2021 Windows 11 by
October 14, 2025 when Windows 10 will not receive further Security Updates.

For me a replacement cycle should be predicated on use case, reliability and security. I get people upgrade every 4 years (per Apple) and every 5-6 years (per Intel).

Prior to 2012 I used to replace annually from 2006-2010 because my credit card rewards allowed it.

IIRC per benchmark M1 chip is more powerful than any Intel Mac excluding Core i9 & Xeon.

I forecast a 3nm M3 chip will be out as early as Oct/Nov 2023 or in volume by Jan 2024. That will chip land 1st on a Macbook Air, Mac mini and Macbook Pro 13". A year later with a iMac 24". A M3 Pro would be out nearly 52 weeks after the 1st M3 chip and that M3 Pro will find itself into a Macbook Pro 14"/16" or a Mac mini ahead of any iMac.

 

[ivnj]

Costco has some good deals if you need windows. Its a third of the Mac price.

Acer Aspire Vero 14" Laptop - 12th Gen Intel Core i5-1235U - 1080p - Windows 11

Acer Aspire Vero 14" Laptop - 12th Gen Intel Core i5-1235U - 1080p - Windows 11

www.costco.com

 

[richmlow]

Hello all,


Well for me, I really need the upgradability in my new Mac purchase. In particular, I need a lot of RAM and multiple cores.

If it were not for the expandability of my old 2013 Mac Pro, it wouldn't have been very useful in 2023. Over the years, I upgraded the RAM and the internal SSD. Even if the internal SSD degrades to an "unusable" state (currently at 89% life left), I can easily swap it out and install a new one.


All the best,
richmlow

 

[sam_dean]

Hello all,


Well for me, I really need the upgradability in my new Mac purchase. In particular, I need a lot of RAM and multiple cores.

If it were not for the expandability of my old 2013 Mac Pro, it wouldn't have been very useful in 2023. Over the years, I upgraded the RAM and the internal SSD.


All the best,
richmlow

There will come a time that an iPhone will be more powerful than your 2013 Mac Pro Xeon. ;-)

Will you then be inclined to buy a Mac mini that cannot be upgraded?

 

[richmlow]

There will come a time that an iPhone will be more powerful than your 2013 Mac Pro Xeon. ;-)

Will you then be inclined to buy a Mac mini that cannot be upgraded?

Hello sam_dean,


You are right. It might be the case that a current iPhone is already more "powerful" than my 2013 Mac Pro. However, an iPhone cannot run Mathematica!

The other day, I was running a custom-designed Mathematica program / calculation on my 2013 Mac Pro. It took 4 hours and ended up using 64GB RAM (towards the end of the calculation)!


All the best,
richmlow

 

[sam_dean]

Hello sam_dean,


You are right. It might be the case that a current iPhone is already more "powerful" than my 2013 Mac Pro. However, an iPhone cannot run Mathematica!

The other day, I was running a custom-designed Mathematica program / calculation on my 2013 Mac Pro. It took 4 hours and ended up using 64GB RAM (towards the end of the calculation)!


All the best,
richmlow

Given time it may come out ;-)

Pls post here what replacement you have decided in the future.

 

[chabig]

I’d just go back to using Windows

Then the next thread will ask,

Thought experiment: What if Microsoft stops making Windows one day?​

 

[sam_dean]

Then the next thread will ask,

Thought experiment: What if Microsoft stops making Windows one day?​

Odds are there are less than 300 million human worldwide from more than 8 billion

 

[leman]

If Apple scrapes Macs I will have a problem. Nobody else makes usable work computers and I spend enough of my time on a laptop to care about these things. I'll probably get a Z-book or something like that, put Linux on it and be permanently grumpy.

Then again, in a wold where Apple scrapes Macs the personal computing paradigm has probably shifted enough that things look very differently.

 

[saintmac]

The answer is very dependent on the tech specs for the anticipated 2023 Mac Pro. This next computer purchase will be used specifically for mathematics research. As such, I want to have the following:

192GB RAM
16-cores

I will not have extensive need for GPU capabilities.

The good news is that the next Mac Studio with M2 Ultra will offer 192GB RAM with 24 cores (16 performance ones).
The Mac Pro will offer at least that so you should be good to go.

 

[sam_dean]

The good news is that the next Mac Studio with M2 Ultra will offer 192GB RAM with 24 cores (16 performance ones).
The Mac Pro will offer at least that so you should be good to go.

What he dislikes about the Mac Studio is the imposition of GPU cores that has little use on his app.

I wonder if these scientific apps could be rewritten to take advantage of the GPU cores in the same way Bitcoin mining machines depend on the GPU to create Bitcoin.

 

[saintmac]

What he dislikes about the Mac Studio is the imposition of GPU cores that has little use on his app.

I wonder if these scientific apps could be rewritten to take advantage of the GPU cores in the same way Bitcoin mining machines depend on the GPU to create Bitcoin.

I think they could, but event if they don't, a mac studio ultra with 192Gb of RAM will probably be up to twice as cheap as an intel Mac Pro with 16 cores and 192Gb RAM.