Sell-side analysts are little different than buy-side analysts. Like a broken analog clock that is correct twice a day, they have just enough victories to give the impression of accuracy. Ignore the missed predictions, keep only the good stuff.
On the logic of it all? What has Rubenstein done since Apple to tell us he'd be better than Tim Cook? Is he running a company the size of Apple? Did he rise to lead all of HP (and reverse its fortunes)? No. Chowdrey's argument is that, once upon a time, Apple did some great things while Rubenstein was at a (much smaller) Apple. Most people give Steve Jobs credit for what happened then. Strip away the myth, and truth is always somewhere in between. The leader gets the victory, the troops shed the blood.
All this really boils down to is "The Search for the Next Steve Jobs," which is a pointless exercise. Few companies are able to replace their visionary founders with another of the same, either in the short term or the long. After Walt Disney died, the company stumbled through a 20-year period of uninspired management. However, the CEO who put the company on its feet was not an artistic genius; Michael Eisner was a superlative entertainment executive, a "suit," and his very able successor, Bob Iger, also a suit. The Walt Disney Company is now something that even Walt could never have imagined.
Leadership naturally includes the ability to inspire and motivate the troops - the infantry needs to believe the man/woman on the horse has remarkable qualities, or they just sit in the trenches. That almost always requires a bit of myth-making. But leading a huge enterprise also requires the technocratic skill to understand how a complex enterprise works and to keep that machine humming. Tim certainly has the latter. The myth-making may be all that's missing, and myths are rarely made overnight.
Inside the Disney company's theme park division, the Michael Eisner Myth was built around the development of a single theme park attraction - he behaved in a very demanding, uncompromising, Walt-like manner, and the word got around. He never behaved quite that way again, but he didn't have to.
Tim Cook most likely needs the successful launch of a cool new product (not a new model of an existing product) to begin building his own legend. A few tales "leaked" from product development meetings, excitement generated by his Keynote, etc. If the product succeeds, Tim's legend will be off and running.
