Mine has done something similar (Jan onwards despite a greyed out record back to October). Related to Photos for me, I am convinced of it, every time photos messes up, all my backup option do a massive backup. My online non Apple de duplicates but it chews up time and drive doing it (unlimited with my ISP, no issue for that). But time machine will not erase older stuff despite indicating it is trying to. Days at it in one instance. A 4TB hard drive.
I have excluded most non essential big stuff, no applications, library containers, garage band etc, no external hard drives apart from the photos library. Feedback has been submitted every time it fails with logs.
Yesterday it decided to stop working, reformatted, removed the drive from a slow housing and fitted to a faster caddy and it has an initial 728 gb backup on a 4tb drive. (I have a comprehensive back up, Time Machine is a small part and I can afford it to fail on its own!)
I rolled back to one Catalina version and the Photos would not work with it (suspected that may happen). Back to the latest beta and see how this goes.