To upgrade or not to upgrade...

[FF/Medic]

I have a 15" MBP from 2018-i9. I don't NEED a new laptop, but I'm close to pulling the trigger on the 14"M2. My question is will the 3nm chips, that are rumored for 2024, be worth waiting for or should I bite the bullet and get the M2?

The laptop is for pleasure, not work.

Thanks!

 

[David1986H]

I have a 15" MBP from 2018-i9. I don't NEED a new laptop, but I'm close to pulling the trigger on the 14"M2. My question is will the 3nm chips, that are rumored for 2024, be worth waiting for or should I bite the bullet and get the M2?

The laptop is for pleasure, not work.

Thanks!

3nm will bring more efficiency, cooler if apple doesn't boost the clock speed which im sure they will a bit, longer battery and so on.

Coming from a 2018 i9 im sure it's hot and loud where as any M chip Macs are cool and silent most the time.

If it's just for pleasure im sure the M2 MBA will be more than fine, plus you'll save up to $1000 or pounds. Unless you want a bigger screen. Bare in mind a 15" MBA could come out in the next 6 months.

3nm should be out this fall first in the MBA but it probably be another 18 months till the 14" MBP gets 3nm.

If you do go for the 14" M2, I would just get the base model 10 core cpu / 16 core gpu. 16 gb ram should be ok for the sound of things you'd be doing.

 

[Technerd108]

I have a 15" MBP from 2018-i9. I don't NEED a new laptop, but I'm close to pulling the trigger on the 14"M2. My question is will the 3nm chips, that are rumored for 2024, be worth waiting for or should I bite the bullet and get the M2?

The laptop is for pleasure, not work.

Thanks!

I think expectations for the 3nm chip are a little more than what reality will offer.

Yes going from a advanced 5nm process to first gen 3nm process will bring some gains in performance and efficiency. However they will be in line with the progression and boosts we saw from m1 to m2 but slightly better.

Look at it like this. Going from Intel 14nm x86 to arm m series 5nm brought huge gains in performance and efficiency. Then it was a huge change in process size and a huge change in architecture. Now we are talking a less than 2nm process change from m2 to m3 on the same architecture. Of course Apple can boost frequency and core counts but the major process and architecture advantage is over.

So for you having an Intel x86 14nm the change is going to be huge if you get M2 or M3. There is always going to be a better processor or they couldn't incentivise people to buy a new machine with each release.

The best answer I can give is if you need a new laptop and want a Pro the M2 MBP is fantastic and I wouldn't wait for whatever comes next if I need something now.

That being said if you can wait 18 months or so and can wait then the better the MacBook Pro will be with even better tech. I think they are going to be producing their own micro led displays starting in 2024 with the watch and then across the line.

So the m3 MBP might, might have an improved micro led vs mini led display and M3 Pro on 3nm. Is that worth the wait? Only you can decide but there are a lot of possibilities as to if all of those changes like micro led will make it. They might release micro led with m4 in 2025/6 and that would be a long wait.

The other factor is if you plan on trading or selling what you have? An Intel Mac in 2024 or later might be a hard sell and you might get more for it if you sell/trade now rather than later.

 

[xraydoc]

I have a 15" MBP from 2018-i9. I don't NEED a new laptop, but I'm close to pulling the trigger on the 14"M2. My question is will the 3nm chips, that are rumored for 2024, be worth waiting for or should I bite the bullet and get the M2?

The laptop is for pleasure, not work.

Thanks!

I hear the 2nd generation 3nm chips for 2025 will be even better... /s

If you're willing to wait a full year to upgrade to a machine that doesn't yet exist, then it doesn't sound like you need a new laptop.

Otherwise, buy now and enjoy it and in a year think about how much happier you were for that year instead of waiting and suffering through using a slow, hot, old laptop with terrible battery life for that whole year. And buy another new machine in 2026 (or later).

Hell, many people are still happily working on their 2015 MBPs. So buy a 2023 model and think about what the 2030 MacBook Pro will be like!

 

[David1986H]

With tech it's always been and always will be a waiting game. Life's too short to keep waiting, id buy something now and keep it for 3-4 years just like you have with your 2018 MBP.

It will be a huge improvement to what you have now and then in 2026-27 it will be a huge improvement again.

I have specked out my 16" M2 Max and will be keeping it for 3-4 years. I don't think the next 2 updates will be worth it for me as I don't fully utilise the CPU and GPU.

 

[zakarhino]

If the 3nm move is the only thing on your list of reasons to wait I would not bother waiting, especially if it's for leisure and not work.

I don't think we're going to see some huge paradigm shifting jump in performance or efficiency simply by moving to a new fab generation; that paradigm shift already happened with the move from Intel to ARM in the first place and that's what should inform your upgrade decision the most. Going from your Intel MacBook experience to any Apple Silicon device will have a huge impact on your experience irrespective of choosing M1 Pro/Max, M2 Pro/Max, or (as I would wager) M3 Pro/Max. I think trying to 'futureproof' is irrelevant based on chip generation alone.

We don't have any information about other significant hardware upgrades coming next year because all we've heard is that OLED is coming but that's at minimum 2 years away. For me the move to OLED or micro LED from the M1/M2's mini LED is worth upgrading for to counteract the blooming.

 

[FF/Medic]

Thanks for all the replies. I pulled the trigger on the 14".

 

[David1986H]

Thanks for all the replies. I pulled the trigger on the 14".

awesome , what spec you go for?

 

[ascender]

It will be a massive difference for you and a pleasant surprise at how quiet it is, even under load. How cool it is and how long the battery lasts, not to mention the performance… Its stuff you will just take for granted after a few weeks of using it.

 

[zakarhino]

Thanks for all the replies. I pulled the trigger on the 14".

You will love it. Enjoy!

 

[FF/Medic]

awesome , what spec you go for?

I ended up getting the 14" M2Pro. I upgraded to 32GB memory and 2TB storage.

 

[NZMike]

I am sure you won't regret it.
I had the same 2018 15" MBP i9 with 32 GB RAM that I was generally very happy with but really disliked the Touch Bar particularly as I use the esc key all the time. I liked the feel of the butterfly keyboard but it was unreliable and it did have to be replaced.
Bought a M1 MBA to try AS (especially on critical software) while the keyboard was being replaced and found the MBA was generally faster than the i9 and battery life, silence and keyboard were all really good. Decided to get a 16" M1 Max MBP 32 core GPU 64 GB RAM rather than fight with the touch bar and worry about the keyboard failing when I was on site in another country.
Found the 16" screen, battery life and silence to be amazing. Really do not regret not waiting for the M2 Max as I can't seem to load the M1 Max to the point where it even gets warm - even when converting 500+ MB CAD drawings.
The M2Pro is so fast and quiet you would regret waiting for another 18 months to get a machine that will not be noticeably faster or cooler or quieter let alone have a better screen.

 

[cassmr]

The 3nm process improvements are not going to be this crazy leap people are expecting, just like the improvements from m1 to m2 are better than people are acting. I'm not saying it wont be a bigger leap than we had had with m1 to m2, but I dont believe substantially. They will likely go middle of the road and get better battery life (But honestly is another 5 hours of video playback (and only video playback) meaningful for most users?) and a decent upswing in performance. But instead of the 20% this time, maybe its 30%.

My guess is we may see even better performance gains from small changes to the chips to address bottlenecks Apple is discovering by having their m1 and m2 chips in use in the real world.

Also, i'm doubtful it'll ship this year in the macbook air, but its possible. Apple seems to be on an 18 months cycle for laptops atm.

 

[CalMin]

What's behind the upgrade itch?

If it's shiny-new syndrome, then if you can afford it without hardship or debt, then go for it. Life is too short to torture yourself over this stuff. It will be a nice upgrade and you will enjoy it. After the dust settles, you will realize that your new Mac cannot do anything that your old Mac could not and life will return to normal.

If you can't afford it without hardship or debt, then don't do it. It will not do anything that your old Mac cannot (in fact, if you use BootCamp, it's even less capable that your old machine) and those three minutes longer that it takes to run your 4K Final Cut Pro export will be better spent getting a snack from the kitchen.

3nm will be better, but Apple Silicon improvements are going to be incremental bumps from here onwards. The generational leap in performance from Intel to the first M1 cannot be expected going from 5nm to 3nm. A 3nm machine will run a bit cooler and have longer battery, but the performance gain will be barely noticeable for most daily tasks unless you're running a render farm.

FWIW - I went from a 2019 16" MBP to the M1Pro and have been delighted with the upgrade. BUT - I paid cash for it and I am blessed with the capacity to absorb this sort of expense without batting an eyelid at this point in my life.

 

[dead flag blues]

I've got a 2021 16" MPB. I can't think of a good reason to upgrade at the moment.

 

[sam_dean]

I have a 15" MBP from 2018-i9. I don't NEED a new laptop, but I'm close to pulling the trigger on the 14"M2. My question is will the 3nm chips, that are rumored for 2024, be worth waiting for or should I bite the bullet and get the M2?

The laptop is for pleasure, not work.

Thanks!

I'd wait.

Your 2018 MBP 15" Core i9 still supports the current macOS.

Consider waiting until 2028.