Apple cutting chip orders for iPhone14?
If true, it makes me wonder if Intel would try to move in and hoover up excess capacity, especially at a discount.
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TSMC capacity glut?
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Apple cutting chip orders for iPhone14?
If true, it makes me wonder if Intel would try to move in and hoover up excess capacity, especially at a discount.
TSMS makes Intel's GPUs and some of its server chips, but not its desktop chips.
www.techradar.com
Intel locks down all remaining TSMC 3nm production capacity, boxing out AMD and Apple
Intel's 3nm orders include a new GPU and three server chips
Well, it’s summer, so naturally it’s time for *yearly* “Apple cutting orders of the next device not yet announced stories.
Seriously, a few years back I assembled a collection of the previous 5 or so years pointing out that this story runs every. ****ing. year. But this site and members seem to fall for it every time.
Seriously, a few years back I assembled a collection of the previous 5 or so years pointing out that this story runs every. ****ing. year. But this site and members seem to fall for it every time.
It's not exactly a guess anymore, pretty much everyone in the semi industry is seeing lower demand.
www.bloomberg.com
If you've been shopping for a TV recently, you'll noticed they're cheaper now than ever before due to contracting TV/PC demand for LCD panels.
Micron’s Warning on Cooling Demand Weighs on Global Chip Stocks
Global semiconductor stocks were under pressure on Friday after Micron Technology Inc.’s profit warning that flagged demand was cooling for chips used in computers and smartphones.
www.bloomberg.com
If you've been shopping for a TV recently, you'll noticed they're cheaper now than ever before due to contracting TV/PC demand for LCD panels.
LG Display: Expect Limited Improvement in Supply-Demand Dynamics
The author is an analyst of KB Securities. He can be reached at jeff.kim@kbfg.com. -- Ed. Downgrade to HOLD; cut target price to KRW17,000 We downgrade to HOLD
www.businesskorea.co.kr
It seems like the semiconductor industry has been built on price cuts (smaller processes giving more transistors per $) and market growth. Both of those fundamentals are being challenged, with (as I understand it) smaller processes costing the same per transistor as older processes, plus a looming recession.
Yeah, I think it's choppy waters ahead for TSMC and many others.
Yeah, I think it's choppy waters ahead for TSMC and many others.
Sensationalism tends to lead people into wrong conclusions. Like the OP.
The problem is we are on the cusp of a recession and electronics are the first things to be on the downturn.
Not surprised.
Interest rates increased faster than anticipated. People went back outside and spent more money on experiences and less on electronics. When people go outside, they spend less time on the internet which means less demand for servers.
Now that we're on our way to a recession, businesses will reduce chip orders.
Apparently they are delaying Intel 4 too. That means they will be stuck 10nm++++ for another year or so.
Apple has moved to 5nm node process since 2020.
AMD has 6nm Ryzen 6000 for laptops with respectable battery life.
Intel still stinks in battery life despite having big/little core technology over AMD.
If that's true, then likely Apple will try to push M2 Pro/Max into 3nm.
That’s absurd. You can’t just move to a new node overnight. Apple’s TSMC N3 plans have been in place for years at this point.
TSMC hoped to have the 3nm node ready by spring of this year, so it would make sense that Apple would have designed the M2 for 3nm.
The future of leading-edge chips according to TSMC: 5nm, 4nm, 3nm and beyond
TSMC details process technologies that will be used for billions of chips
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TSMC hoped to have the 3nm node ready by spring of this year, so it would make sense that Apple would have designed the M2 for 5nm and 3nm.
View attachment 2028048
The future of leading-edge chips according to TSMC: 5nm, 4nm, 3nm and beyond
TSMC details process technologies that will be used for billions of chipswww.techradar.com
Hoped?
They are already on track for high volume manufacturing of N3 in 2H22 as planned years ago.
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Perhaps because so many people upgraded their computers to support WFH/Remote learning during the COVID lockdowns.
Just for the record, when you start to design a chip, it is tied to a specific node. You don’t start to work on 5nm and then say, nah, let’s just shrink it down to 3nm and carry on. Also, I would be shocked if at least the M2 Max isn’t being done on 3nm - otherwise I don’t think it will be good enough for the Mac Pro or big enough of an upgrade, but we will see.
I'd be surprised if any of the M2s are on 3nm. This is because M2 is based on the A15 which uses 5nm. The M2 itself uses 5nm as well. So if the M2 Max is on 3nm, that means Apple had to redesign the A15 to use 3nm, which obviously has different design rules.
It's possible that one of the M2 will be on 3nm. I think it's far more likely that M3 gets released in 3nm instead of any of the M2.
I'd add that TSMC made a huge investment in 3nm (I saw $23B in one article). They'd probably rather have dinner with Xi than let that capacity sit idle... Someone or something is going to etch those wafers. I hope it's Apple.
Good point regarding the A15 and 5nm, but on the other hand: I really don’t think making M2 Max on 5nm will be enough of a jump to be worthwhile for anything when Apple can make that on 3nm in the start of 2023.
In any event, I can’t wait to see a Mac Studio Ultra when the chip is done on 3nm. There is a decent chance that will already be out during 2023, like May 2023? A M2 Ultra on 5nm would be very meh in my book regarding to what is already out now.
that's not how it works. When you design a chip, it's for a specific node, say 5nm and you ue the PDK (Process Development kit) that comes with that process. when done with design, you create a mask set to run actually wafers in the fab, those masksets are for 5nm. If you were "switching to 3nm, you basically have to start from scratch. now using the PDK for 3nm ... masksets for 5nm are rumored to be in the $10M range, 3nm masksets are rumored to be closer to $100M. So you're dealing with some heavy expenditures here and don't change plans midway thru ...
"Testing" occurs on actual wafers/chips, during the design phase you "simulate", and your simulation depends on the actual node designed to ...