What are the chances of the 12" ARM Macbook?

[bogdan127]

Hello,

I'm currently in the market for a 13" MBP, but the hardware of the base model is something that is holding me off.
I was interested in the rumored 13" MBP with arm chip, but lately the rumors point at a 12" or 14".

What are the chances of 12" coming out? I'm not interested in this model and I'm afraid I'll wait until late October/November and Apple will release the first arm mac as a 12" macbook.

Are there any higher chances for them to release as well a 13" or 14" version of the MBP?

Also why would anyone even consider buying an Intel version of the Mac right now?

Let's say Apple will switch to full arm architecture in the next 1.5-2 years, ok, Apple will continue to offer support and software updates for the Intel version, but I think the developers will slowly start to develop only arm versions of the app and slowly ditch the Intel version.

What do you think about this?

Is it possible that in the next 1-2-3-4 years an app could be only 'arm-mac' compatible?

Thanks,

 

[mcnallym]

App support will make or break the transition hence why Apple have in place rosetta2 so that existing apps using modern Apple api and frameworks will run on The new Apple silicon systems.
They also demonstrated how can generate AS code without massive rewrites providing using modern frameworks.
i can see Apple deprecating and removing those older frameworks from the OS fairly quickly. Not known for being too worried about maintain backwards compatibility.
xcode allows app development that runs on both, simply by choosing the target to generate for. App developers ignoring that are just making life hard for themselves. Shouldn’t really be developing software where not using the frameworks.
for instance handbrake finally got hardware encoding by using the Apple VideoToolbox, not by trying to use the hardware directly. So Mac as a platform lagged behind windows and other software like handbrake was similar. So instead of writing code to work with intel quicksync, apples T2 or even AMD GPU to do he encode, write to the framework and then it will use which method is available.
As such AS only apps are going to be pretty specialised where not able to use the published frameworks.
Apps will become AS only once Apple stops supporting generating in Xcode or the developer chooses too not generate the code for intel.

people will buy intel based macs at the moment as will either need to replace ageing Mac.
other buying as concerned that not going to be able to run VM for other OS.
others simply that running older software.
having a 2018 mm and a hackintosh that mirrors the iMac 2019 27” then not in the market for new hardware period and software wise is all modern stuff.

i am basically a consumer on Apple, use the Mac mini as iTunes Server for want of better way of putting it.
iMac hackintosh for dvd/blu ray ripping and video editing recorded tv.
personally no issues or concerns about AS move, though I can see why some people would be.

 

[filu_]

Will, for example, the Numbers application for ASi be an application known from the iPad? Will there be a Finder on ASi or a primitive iOS Files application?

Forgive me for such elementary questions but I don't know the answer to them and it would be important to me, in my opinion the iPadOD applications for Macbook would be a step back and I hope I'm wrong.

 

[leman]

Are there any higher chances for them to release as well a 13" or 14" version of the MBP?

We just don't know. People who do are under NDA. What we have right now are rumors and speculations.

If I were to make an educated guess, I would say that the Apple Silicon Macs we will see this fall will be on the low end. I doubt that Apple has high-performance chips ready and it would make much more sense for them to start with low-end to test out their technology on a scale. Which means a MacBook, MacBook Air or a 13" MBP. Which one exactly depends on their business strategy, which again, is unknown to us. Regardless, any of those models should be able to confidently outperform any current 13" MBP.

Furthermore, I don't think that it's a good time to buy a 13" MBP anyway. Tiger Lake is already launched, with healthy performance boosts. There is a change that Apple will update the 13" MBP to Tiger Lake this fall. Or maybe there is an Apple Silicon MacBook Pro instead. I would certain wait until November if I could.

Also why would anyone even consider buying an Intel version of the Mac right now?

Because people might be running legacy applications and/or relying on x86 Windows virtualization and will need time to migrate to the new architecture.

Will, for example, the Numbers application for ASi be an application known from the iPad? Will there be a Finder on ASi or a primitive iOS Files application?

Apple Silicon Macs will run the regular macOS with all the regular applications. Numbers, Finder and everything else is exactly as on the current Intel Macs. It's just that Apple Silicon Macs will also be able to natively run iOS apps if you so desire. But you are getting full-featured desktop versions of all the standard software.

 

[Krevnik]

i can see Apple deprecating and removing those older frameworks from the OS fairly quickly. Not known for being too worried about maintain backwards compatibility.

Most of the “older” frameworks not making it to Apple Silicon boils down to Carbon. And that was killed when 32-bit support was killed.

Looking back, I now believe the timing of killing 32-bit was to prepare for the architecture change.

 

[bogdan127]

Hmm interesting, but from my understanding (correct me if i'm wrong) currently you will be able to emulate software designed for Intel on ARM based Macs, BUT, they don't say they plan in the future to add support to emulate software designed for ARM to run on Intel, am I right?

Current situation:
- Intel designed software + Roseta 2/Universal 2 = ARM emulation
but does this work the other way around?
- ARM designed software + ?? = Intel emulation?

Let's take this situation:
A small indie company (blizzard for example lol) designs a software compatible for Intel, now we can emulate it to run on ARM.
But what if, in the next 3 years, since being a small indie company, they design the software to be compatible with ARM only, would it be possible to emulate the software to run on Intel (older macs) ?

 

[leman]

But what if, in the next 3 years, since being a small indie company, they design the software to be compatible with ARM only, would it be possible to emulate the software to run on Intel (older macs) ?

No, ARM-only apps cannot be run on Intel Macs.

Your scenario is quite unrealistic though. If it compiles and works correctly on ARM, then it will most likely compile and work correctly on Intel. Your small indie company would need to make some really niche software for it to be compatible with ARM only.

 

[dmccloud]

Hmm interesting, but from my understanding (correct me if i'm wrong) currently you will be able to emulate software designed for Intel on ARM based Macs, BUT, they don't say they plan in the future to add support to emulate software designed for ARM to run on Intel, am I right?

Current situation:
- Intel designed software + Roseta 2/Universal 2 = ARM emulation
but does this work the other way around?
- ARM designed software + ?? = Intel emulation?

Let's take this situation:
A small indie company (blizzard for example lol) designs a software compatible for Intel, now we can emulate it to run on ARM.
But what if, in the next 3 years, since being a small indie company, they design the software to be compatible with ARM only, would it be possible to emulate the software to run on Intel (older macs) ?

Given that you can build for both x86 and ARM in Xcode now, there really isn't a significant change in the amount of work needed to compile for two instruction sets. Now if the company isn't building via Xcode there might be an issue with developing for two platforms at once. But my guess is that initially Apple Silicon development will be slow going, since the vast majority of the market will still be running Intel-based Macs.

 

[MrGunnyPT]

You know a 1st gen product is always a gamble, however the 12" is happening if the rumours are true.

I would expect a big jump every gen until the 3rd year especially coming down to performance... We also know Apple has been holding out redesigns due to the ARM arrival it just makes sense really

 

[Tech198]

Hello,

I'm currently in the market for a 13" MBP, but the hardware of the base model is something that is holding me off.
I was interested in the rumored 13" MBP with arm chip, but lately the rumors point at a 12" or 14".

What are the chances of 12" coming out? I'm not interested in this model and I'm afraid I'll wait until late October/November and Apple will release the first arm mac as a 12" macbook.

Are there any higher chances for them to release as well a 13" or 14" version of the MBP?

Also why would anyone even consider buying an Intel version of the Mac right now?

Let's say Apple will switch to full arm architecture in the next 1.5-2 years, ok, Apple will continue to offer support and software updates for the Intel version, but I think the developers will slowly start to develop only arm versions of the app and slowly ditch the Intel version.

What do you think about this?

Is it possible that in the next 1-2-3-4 years an app could be only 'arm-mac' compatible?

Thanks,

look like you've covered your choices lol.. What can i say to that ??

eventually ... Isn't Apple still clearing out old apps from the App Store which are more than 3 years old, havan' been developed for some time ?

I can see 'Arm-only' apps in the near future, when its all good, and everyone is used to Silicon.

 

[johngwheeler]

Will, for example, the Numbers application for ASi be an application known from the iPad? Will there be a Finder on ASi or a primitive iOS Files application?

Forgive me for such elementary questions but I don't know the answer to them and it would be important to me, in my opinion the iPadOD applications for Macbook would be a step back and I hope I'm wrong.

I'm pretty sure that whatever you see in current Intel versions of Big Sur will be identical on ASi Macs. I don't expect ASi applications developed for Mac to be "dumbed-down" in any way. In most cases, the Intel and ASi application will be identical because they will be built from the same code-base with the same resources, and this includes MacOS itself.

 

[johngwheeler]

Hmm interesting, but from my understanding (correct me if i'm wrong) currently you will be able to emulate software designed for Intel on ARM based Macs, BUT, they don't say they plan in the future to add support to emulate software designed for ARM to run on Intel, am I right?

Current situation:
- Intel designed software + Roseta 2/Universal 2 = ARM emulation
but does this work the other way around?
- ARM designed software + ?? = Intel emulation?

Let's take this situation:
A small indie company (blizzard for example lol) designs a software compatible for Intel, now we can emulate it to run on ARM.
But what if, in the next 3 years, since being a small indie company, they design the software to be compatible with ARM only, would it be possible to emulate the software to run on Intel (older macs) ?

I am not aware of any plans to offer ARM-emulation on Intel. Even if it were possible, I doubt Apple would support it, because it would discourage users from upgrading their machines to ASi

 

[johngwheeler]

No, ARM-only apps cannot be run on Intel Macs.

Your scenario is quite unrealistic though. If it compiles and works correctly on ARM, then it will most likely compile and work correctly on Intel. Your small indie company would need to make some really niche software for it to be compatible with ARM only.

Yes; developers will release fat-binaries with both Intel & ARM until the market for Intel has disappeared.

 

[Tagbert]

Apple will still be selling Intel Macs in 2022 as they complete the transition to AS. They will need to provide support for those machines for at least a few years after to avoid pissing off those customers. In addition, developers and others who need to run Intel VMs are a significant market for Apple right now. Unless someone provides a true Intel emulation solution for Arm, Apple may continue to sell Intel Macs even after the ASi transition is complete to satisfy that market. We may see Intel support for several years yet.

 

[johngwheeler]

Apple will still be selling Intel Macs in 2022 as they complete the transition to AS. They will need to provide support for those machines for at least a few years after to avoid pissing off those customers. In addition, developers and others who need to run Intel VMs are a significant market for Apple right now. Unless someone provides a true Intel emulation solution for Arm, Apple may continue to sell Intel Macs even after the ASi transition is complete to satisfy that market. We may see Intel support for several years yet.

I would expect Intel support with OS or security updates from Apple for at least another 5 years minimum. (I have a 2011 MacMini that I was still able to update this year).

Application support will last as long as the market for Intel Mac software exists, tailing off after about 5 years I expect. If developers are using existing Apple APIs/SDKs that will continue to be available on Apple Silicon, then it will not be a huge effort to simply bundle their apps as fat-binaries.

Once the pool of Intel Macs has diminished to < 10% of all Macs in use, you would expect some developers to consider it no longer worthwhile to bundle an Intel-build in their software. It might take 10 years to get to that point.

 

[Yebubbleman]

Hello,

I'm currently in the market for a 13" MBP, but the hardware of the base model is something that is holding me off.
I was interested in the rumored 13" MBP with arm chip, but lately the rumors point at a 12" or 14".

What are the chances of 12" coming out? I'm not interested in this model and I'm afraid I'll wait until late October/November and Apple will release the first arm mac as a 12" macbook.

Are there any higher chances for them to release as well a 13" or 14" version of the MBP?

Also why would anyone even consider buying an Intel version of the Mac right now?

Let's say Apple will switch to full arm architecture in the next 1.5-2 years, ok, Apple will continue to offer support and software updates for the Intel version, but I think the developers will slowly start to develop only arm versions of the app and slowly ditch the Intel version.

What do you think about this?

Is it possible that in the next 1-2-3-4 years an app could be only 'arm-mac' compatible?

Thanks,

1. There's nothing to suggest that we're seeing the 14" MacBook Pro this year.

2. All credible sources point to the MacBook Air, the 13" MacBook Pro, and the 21.5" iMac as being the first Macs to make the jump to Apple Silicon. The former two are expected to retain their current form factor at least for their first Apple Silicon release, the latter one is expected to change its design completely and allow for a larger screen in the same body (24" iMac in the same footprint as the current 21.5" iMac).

3. If the MacBook Air gets an update, but the 13" MacBook Pro does not; it is highly likely that the Apple Silicon MacBook Air will outperform every Intel 13" MacBook Pro that has ever existed.

4. Expect the 2-port 13" MacBook Pro to go away when all of this happens.

5. People are buying Intel Macs right now for stability (as many applications won't be native on day one), the ability to natively boot x86-64 versions of Windows via Boot Camp, and the ability to virtualize x86 operating systems including macOS releases that predate Big Sur. I am in the market for an Intel Mac for this reason. There will be plenty of others who are also in this camp.

6. Apple will likely continue to produce Intel native versions of macOS for the next five to eight years, there will be two years of security patches for the final supported release on top of that. Past that point, it's Apple Silicon only.

7. The 12" MacBook had several flaws to it, the processor and how ill-suited it was to the form factor was only one problem that caused it to be discontinued in favor of the current MacBook Air. I wouldn't hold my breath for it returning.

8. Odds are decent that regardless of which Apple Silicon notebook gets released first, it will be a 13" notebook and it will be faster than all sub-16" notebooks that Apple currently sells with Intel inside.