Well keep in mind sometimes everyone says something would be stupid and not work simply because... it would be stupid and wouldn't work!
I really don't think any AAPL stockholders hope Apple moves from "Low Risk/High Yield" to "High Risk/Low Yield" just to fan a few egos.
Microsoft/Dell/etc. dream of Apple making this blunder, but I can't see Jobs or anyone else turning incompetent overnight.
I do sort of agree, while desktop sales might fall by 90%, laptops are just so cool that they might hold 40% of their current sales volume. For awhile.
Until apple decides to open up it software to everyone it market share is really not going to grow that much and really going to hover around where it been for a while now. Now apple could easily be just fine with that but if they want to grow in market share they do not have a choice.
Microsoft considers apple at best just a thorn in their side. Not like apple really does that much damage to them. Linus is more of a threat.
Now do I expect them to do it any time soon but I could easily see it happen in the next 5 years. Apple has gone back on it never word to many times for me to believe it. I would not be shock at all to see apple release OSX out into the open. Mind you then there would be multiple box people would have to choice from (upgrade and full versions which is fine right now all OSX copies are upgrade only)
Apple could make that move and not really be hurt by it. Yeah stock prices might fall in the short term but after people though the whining and complaining it would go right back up. Just like when they went x86 just look on these boards at all the whining about how it was a bad idea for reason XYZ. Of course do not forget the never going to happen before hand.
This is why I see apple doing it at some point. They seem to want to expand market share. The only way to do that is by release the OS to everyone. Like I said before apple has a lot of other sources of income right now other than computer. It is diversifying very widely which is why I see them going truly into the software side for another source of income. Right now apple is hardly a software company and mostly only a hardware company. They seem to be moving more and more into the software side as well.
Also I might want to point out that just call it stupid and will not work and fail to address the arguments which I set on the table. I calmly pointed out why I think apple might do that and why it would work out fine for them. I would like to see some better argument other than it is stupid and will not work. On top of people pointing back to the clone days.