Prelim: The iPhone OS is a testbed. Think of it this way: It's a beta. Or an alpha. The iPhone OS is an alpha release of OS XI. Apple is testing the feasibility of different aspects of multitouch for a desktop OS. The feedback they receive from iPhone users is put directly into research into optimization of OS XI. When they find a feature that they deem to be crucial, they implement it into OS X as a transitionary measure.
Tap to open.
Pinch to zoom.
Two-finger scroll.
Three-finger swipe.
Four-finger swipe.
Directional assigning of swipes.
We're getting there. It will be slow, sure, as we have about a decade until the release of OS XI if the original OS X timeframe is to be believed, but it will come, and it won't be the shock that System 1 was in the transition to using a mouse.
You appear to be very convinced of this scenario. But let me ask you a question (later). In OS X, you can arrange and interact with information in a very tight arrangement, because the mouse pointer is nimble and hardly obscures the screen underneath. On your proposed gesture based OS, we would need a lot of extra space just to make sure that we can still control what our large and opaque fingertips are actually manipulating.
I believe that it is possible for the interface of OS XI to not require inordinate amounts of extra space to work. The iPhone (testbed) is capable of distinguishing touches very well on even tiny discrepancies in placement.
For example, I can reliably choose to go to the next page of a thread on MacRumors using the widescreen, non-zoomed page view on my iPhone. Moving my finger slightly to the left of that, I can reliably choose to go to a numbered page that is not the next in the thread.
Finger input on an iPhone or iPod works well, because it is a simple solution for simple tasks. A stylus based touchscreen laptop works too, because the stylus gives you the accuracy you need to work on a complex task. But doing complex work with your fingers alone? Even apes use sticks in such a case.
I believe that a consumer end-user will be able to do very many tasks within OS XI with only the use of their fingers. As I said above, the OS will be intuitively written to know what you want to do when you want to do it. A professional end-user, however, who finds that their fingers are not as adept as they require them to be, should very well be able to use a stylus of some sort. The form of holding a pen remains very valuable, obviously, as there are design tablets on the market now, without screens, that people use for drawing and design purposes.
On top of that, there is of course ergonomy to think about. The only comfortable arrangement I can see is using your touchscreen like a paper notebook - basically lying right in front of you on the table, where the keyboard is now. This means you can only use one input method comfortably at a time (assuming that touch-typing on the screen will remain seriously inferior to a dedicated keyboard). So if you have to switch between finger touching and keyboarding, you need to somehow shuffle things on your desk every time.
Yes, exactly. These people who believe that the HP TouchSmart is the future need to use actually use one for eight hours a day.
You can't hold your arms up and work for extended periods of time like that; it's absurd. The displays of OS XI will be where the keyboard is now. With the mouse dead, the physical keyboard is next to go.
"Oh, NO! I HATE the iPhone keyboard! There is no tactile feedback!"
Remember Apple's patent a while back? They have the technology to give haptic feedback to touchscreens when it is needed and remove it when it is not. You would call up the keyboard by touching in a text box, and the onscreen keyboard would appear, complete with "push" style keys. A double-tap or the tap of a circled-X in the top left corner would dismiss the keyboard and restore the touchscreen to a smooth surface.
So this is the question: from a general Mac user's perspective, who uses his computer for writing texts, drawing pictures, photoshopping, editing videos and so on, does it really make sense to throw away our most important tool (aside from the keyboard) and work with our bare hands?
Yes. As I said before, a consumer end-user will be able to use OS XI comfortably with their hands only, doing everything that they can do now and more. Professionals might want a pen-style solution, and that would be afforded to them.
But 10.7 won't be multitouch. Neither will 10.8, nor 10.9, should we get that far.