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Pancrecio

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Nov 17, 2020
11
9
My late 2013 13" Macbook Pro is asking to be retired. It wants to just go off and drink Piña Colada's at the beach...

This is going to be my first "generation" computing without a desktop. Based on current 13" Pro benchmarks, I have no doubts the
16" will be my first all-in-one productivity machine.

I can hardly wait.

How long do you think we'll have to wait?
 
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philstubbington

macrumors 6502a
My late 2013 13" Macbook Pro is asking to be retired. It wants to just go off and drink Piña Colada's at the beach...

This is going to be my first "generation" computing without a desktop. Based on current 13" Pro benchmarks, I have no doubts the
16" will be my first all-in-one productivity machine.

I can hardly wait.

How long do you think we'll have to wait?
Q1/2021.

My rationale being the M1 makes the existing model obsolete so it’ll be a priority to bring out a replacement.
 
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T'hain Esh Kelch

macrumors 603
Aug 5, 2001
6,475
7,410
Denmark
My guess is 8-10 months.
My guess is also at WWDC, so Apple can tout its performance levels and get all the developers in the world to buy two each.

Pro iPads are usually in the spring, leaving winter and summer, and I don't think Apple would want all of their Macs to be released around the same 3 month periode.
 

Xack

macrumors member
Oct 27, 2016
40
59
Probably will have a spring time special event for the 16-inch MBP and the iMac. Mac Pro at WWDC.
 
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vseera

macrumors 6502
May 27, 2011
316
546
My guess is the earliest we will see the 14 and 16 inch versions would be WWDC. I expect them to have a slightly newer/updated design than the current ones.
 

Pancrecio

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Nov 17, 2020
11
9
Might come out earlier though, due to the covid era. Commercially, would make sense.

Indeed, I am quite astonished the 16" didn't debut alongside the 13".

Only those who are somehow forced to keep an Intel chip are customers for the 16", which at this point is a significant minority. I am very impressed at how fast pro creative software either is already native, or works perfectly well under Rosetta2. Sales of Mac Intels is going to go to a complete halt, especially now that real world benchmarks are turning heads left and right.

I wished Apple were a little more open about their release schedule.
 
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JLOAKS

macrumors regular
Mar 24, 2016
131
156
Since the M1 was found in 3 product lines, is it safe to assume the M2 (etc.) chip will be the same in the MacBook Pro 16'' and iMac 24''? Possibly a March event for both?
 

Pancrecio

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Nov 17, 2020
11
9
Since the M1 was found in 3 product lines, is it safe to assume the M2 (etc.) chip will be the same in the MacBook Pro 16'' and iMac 24''? Possibly a March event for both?

This makes somewhat sense, however if it is a M2 - as opposed to a M1x - then it fragments the current Pro laptop lineup.
As is, the 13" Pro and Air are very close to each other.

If they launch an M2 alongside a 24" iMac that is ridiculously superior to the 13", it just makes no sense, at least to me. I would be so much happier with a M1x 16" now (that would already be ridiculously superior to everything out there) - and then in 2 years a ridiculous M2 across the line.
 

theluggage

macrumors G3
Jul 29, 2011
8,015
8,449
This makes somewhat sense, however if it is a M2 - as opposed to a M1x - then it fragments the current Pro laptop lineup.
As is, the 13" Pro and Air are very close to each other.

The line was already fragmented under Intel - since 2016 the entry level "13in MacBook Pro" with 2 TB3 ports has been an additional tier between the Air and the high-end "13in MacBook Pro" with 4 TB3 ports and a higher-power processor... and even before that, choosing between the Air and the low-end MBP was often a bit of a toss-up.

The replacements for the 16" MBP and the 5k iMac will need:

(a) More than two TB3/USB4 ports
(b) 10G Ethernet option
(c) 32GB+ RAM options and/or off-package expandable RAM
(d) A meatier GPU (the M1 blows Intel integrated graphics and cheaper mobile-class dGPUs out of the water, which was its job, but its not going to be such an impressive upgrade over the higher-end GPU options in the 16" MBP and 5k iMac.
(e) More high-performance cores vs. low-power cores (so maybe an 8+4 chip).

NB: (a) and (b) are likely fundamental restrictions of M1, or these features wouldn't have been dropped from the Mini - (c) may be limited by the size/price of single RAM chips that can be fitted into the M1 package.

...those probably aren't going to be met by any "M1X" chip (if you take that to mean a slightly souped-up M1 chip).

I'd speculate that Apple are going to need 3 "ranges" of M-series chips:

* entry-level: the M1 for the Air and low-end MBP.
* mid-range: for 16" MBP and mid-range 5k iMac (as above)
* high-end: Xeon-killers for the top-end 5k iMac/iMac Pro and Mac Pro (these will need insane PCIe bandwidth, huge core counts, ECC RAM and almost definitely off-package RAM for those who need 1TB+ of RAM)

...which actually gives them a much clearer product delineation that the current arbitrary "pro" tags. What these don't necessarily need is faster individual CPU or GPU cores - just more of them.

Then you have the "odd ones out" - the high-end 13" (or future 14") MBP, the 21.5 (or future 24") iMac and the high-end Mini.

The 4 port 13" MBP might be redundant, given the extra power of the M1 13", and the M1 might also have enough grunt to support a 14" version or the M2 might be cool enough to make a 14" version of the 16". Anybody's guess.

Likewise, a 21.5" or 24" M1 iMac would be a capable little machine - with enough space for a honking great passive cooling system. I suspect that the only reason that the current 21.5" has a discrete GPU is the lack of a decent integrated option from Intel.

The high-end Mini might disappear if the rumoured half-size (and, we can naively hope, half-priced... yeah...) Mac Pro turns out to be real.

NB: I noticed that Apple are still talking about the transition taking "a couple of years" 5 months after they first used that phrase. So, the possibility that this will follow the pattern of the Intel transition - with the entire range available by the following August - may be fading.
 

docbot

macrumors newbie
Apr 28, 2011
29
3
Depends if the 16 inch will be the first of the "new macbooks", with those new chip design the enclosure will get a proper redesign for sure (half of the mac mini is empty). I'd say WWDC. Can't wait for those machines :) Finally a reason to upgrade from my late 2013 MBP
 

jonnysods

macrumors G3
Sep 20, 2006
8,624
7,183
There & Back Again
They said the transition would take a couple of years - not sure how that factors into rolling out all models with new processors, or it means how long they will sell Intel macs side by side?
 

Falhófnir

macrumors 603
Aug 19, 2017
6,146
7,001
I'm going to say WWDC at the latest - I don't think they will want to keep their flagship Macs in this weird position of inferiority for too long, certainly not an entire year until an October/ November event. It might be a spring event, a May MacBook Pro event, or WWDC itself.
 
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docbot

macrumors newbie
Apr 28, 2011
29
3
I'm guessing we will see a touch screen in the 16" It has to happen at some point.
at some point for sure, but I don't think they're in a hurry to introduce touch screens to the macbook pro line. They'll probably give us a slim flashy new enclosure first then the touch screen the year after :)

I'm also starting to wonder how much they are actually artificially holding back, considering how tiny the board is, couldn't they easily do a 16 core Macbook Pro?
 

bill-p

macrumors 68030
Jul 23, 2011
2,929
1,589
So we got Tomb Raider benchmark. It's basically...

M1 - 17fps
Intel 13" Pro - 10fps
16" 5600M - 56fps

And that's somewhat expected. It wasn't like we could expect Apple to just somehow be able to match the performance of a dedicated GPU. But of course, this is still the fastest iGPU.

It's the implication with the chip in the 16" MacBook that intrigues me more. This means Apple needs to scale GPU performance in the next M1 chip up to 3-4x faster just to break even with the existing 16" MacBook. The current GPU is 8 cores. Even assuming performance scaling is linear, they want a 24+ cores GPU here to break even.

And they really should try to go for 5x performance if they really want to claim big performance multipliers. That's not to mention the CPU also needs many more cores.

So perhaps this is why we aren't seeing a 16" MacBook Pro with M1X or whichever chip yet.

It'll come. CPU performance is ready. GPU is not. We need to wait, so just be patient.
 
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bill-p

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Jul 23, 2011
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ght56

macrumors 6502a
Aug 31, 2020
839
815
1 - 1.5 years, with likely an additional Intel 16 inch release prior to an AS 16 inch.


Q1/2021.

My rationale being the M1 makes the existing model obsolete so it’ll be a priority to bring out a replacement.

The M1 has anemic GPU performance compared to the GPUs offered by the 16-inch. For an iGPU it performs great...hell, it performs outstandingly. But it's not on the level of a discrete GPU and it certainly wont be comparable to the next line of mobile cards AMD will likely release within several months.
 

SwissGuy93

macrumors 6502
Sep 16, 2016
372
355
Well, Bloomberg had quite a confusing article about the M1. They wrote, that the 16 inch was further behind in production compared to the 13 inch Pro. But they didn't specify when it would come out or if it would be an intel 16 inch or an M1 16 inch?

And there is still the 2020 MacBook Pro 16 inch refresh coming which was leaked in the Bootcamp update. But BootCamp means Intel, so there's that. But the MacBook Air cycle this year showed, that Apple will release an Intel update and 6 months later release an M* update. So I think it's anyone's guess at the moment.

It is a bit annoying since I am also waiting for an 16 inch M* MacBook Pro. I hope that Gurman and L0vetodream are correct and that the 16 inch will in fact come out in Q1 2021, which they reported a few weeks or months ago.
 

bill-p

macrumors 68030
Jul 23, 2011
2,929
1,589
Well, if the 16" MacBook wants to come out within the next half year, you're saying Apple has somehow boosted the GPU performance of the M1 chip by 3-4x within that time frame.

They'll either pull it off and it'll have horrible battery life, or you just have to be patient while they figure out how to do it efficiently, without sacrificing on the 20-hour battery life the base models just established.

The 16" needs its dedicated GPU performance. And I doubt Apple can pull it off while relying on just LPDDR4X. The 16" may need its own dedicated video memory or much faster unified memory overall.

While M1 is an impressive chip, it's also showing how much Apple is not ready yet for the 16".
 

JosepPont

macrumors regular
Oct 25, 2019
240
197
Albaida, Valencian Country
Well, Bloomberg had quite a confusing article about the M1. They wrote, that the 16 inch was further behind in production compared to the 13 inch Pro. But they didn't specify when it would come out or if it would be an intel 16 inch or an M1 16 inch?

And there is still the 2020 MacBook Pro 16 inch refresh coming which was leaked in the Bootcamp update. But BootCamp means Intel, so there's that. But the MacBook Air cycle this year showed, that Apple will release an Intel update and 6 months later release an M* update. So I think it's anyone's guess at the moment.

It is a bit annoying since I am also waiting for an 16 inch M* MacBook Pro. I hope that Gurman and L0vetodream are correct and that the 16 inch will in fact come out in Q1 2021, which they reported a few weeks or months ago.
I hope 16 for Q1 too.
 
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