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When will the Chitika Labs iPad tracker hit the 1 million mark?

gwynne

gwynne

macrumors 68000
Original poster
Mar 11, 2010
1,816
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The tracker is here:

http://labs.chitika.com/ipad/

You can read about their methodology here (the blog comments are interesting too):

http://chitika.com/research/2010/meet-the-ipad-with-real-time-stats/

I've been watching it for a few days and I'm really curious when it'll tick over to 1,000,000. I'm going to say Sunday. Anyone else want to guess?

Disclaimer: Yes, I know that some people question the validity of this tracker, which is why the thread isn't called "When will Apple sell a million iPads?", although I think that's also an interesting question. Yes, I know that this disclaimer won't stop people from complaining about Chitika's methodology, but I thought I'd get it out there so we're clear. :)

As of this post, the tracker is in the 773,600s. Comments on their blog seem to indicate that they don't think they'll have to do any more major adjustment of the number.

Oh, one more interesting bit: When I started watching this, the California population:iPad ratio was about 1200:1, now it's 566:1. I don't know much about stats, are they implying that one in every 566 Californians has an iPad?
 
Does anyone know how many more iPad were shipped over since the initial 700,000. The official number was 1 million for April, but those would include the 3Gs. Have they all been shipped yet?
 
Ljohnson72 said:
I read your post perfectly fine. It was simply a comment that 1m on that number doesn't mean Apple has actually sold 1m.
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Weird, because I could swear I said this:

Disclaimer: Yes, I know that some people question the validity of this tracker, which is why the thread isn't called "When will Apple sell a million iPads?",
Click to expand...

I guess I didn't disclaim convincingly enough.

My guess would be by mid week next week.
Click to expand...

My original guess was the same, but then I started thinking that maybe sales are higher on weekends when consumers are out at the malls in force.
 
Ljohnson72 said:
I would take these numbers with a grain of salt. They were at 550k+ before Apple officially announced they were at 450k.
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Apple can't announce numbers that they can't prove. So they just go with the lowest dominator of the actual delivered or retail sold iPads, and the number they came up with was 450K. They haven't accounted for the best buy units and resellers. It is totally possible for Chitika to be more up to date numbers but less likely. The accurate number is between Apple's latest numbers and Chitika's numbers.

At this moment, Apple announced over 500K sold. Chitikia's at 770K. So we can safely say that Apple has now sold between 500K and 770K units.

Even so, the numbers are amazing for this sort of product. I wouldn't be surprised to see iPads selling far more than the total lifetime units of all Kindles unit and matching or more than all old fashioned tablets in the last several years combined.
 
Dang, the tracker is up to 920k. Maybe it'll tick over tomorrow.
 
It'll be today I think. It's at 980k.

I'll bump one more time when it hits 1mil and then let the thread die gracefully. I wonder if they'll announce a new official number at the financial meeting Tuesday (and no, I don't think the official number will be 1 mil by then).
 
klrobinson999 said:
absurd numbers....has Apple even produced that many yet?
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Well the official number sold was 450,000 as of nine days ago (i.e., 450k in the first 5.5 days, plus nine more days of sales since) so while I do think the number is high (despite the fine tuning chitika says they've done), I believe it's probably closer to reality than skeptics would like to think. Especially with all the reports this week of stock exiting the stores as fast as it enters.

I don't think anyone knows how many were manufactured by launch day or subsequently. Analyst speculation was all over the map.
 
Yep, I refreshed it last night and watched it change from 1 mil back to 700k. They hadn't mentioned anything on their site and I don't believe there were any official sales numbers released over the weekend, so not sure why the huge adjustment. Ah well, color me chagrined. Interested to see what if any the official numbers will be on Tuesday.
 
gwynne said:
Yep, I refreshed it last night and watched it change from 1 mil back to 700k. They hadn't mentioned anything on their site and I don't believe there were any official sales numbers released over the weekend, so not sure why the huge adjustment. Ah well, color me chagrined. Interested to see what if any the official numbers will be on Tuesday.
Click to expand...

Until Apple and Best Buy release the figures AND all of the returns are done by those who only bought the WiFi until 3G is released, we won't know the real numbers. That may take a while.
 
Trek2100 said:
Until Apple and Best Buy release the figures AND all of the returns are done by those who only bought the WiFi until 3G is released, we won't know the real numbers. That may take a while.
Click to expand...

I know, but I believe there's some sort of financial meeting on Tuesday and I'm curious if they'll float a number then. When I say "official" I just mean "official so far, per Apple".
 
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