With the M3 pro and max MacBook Pros launching earlier than expected, I’m keen to hear everyone's educated opinions on when we might see the new M4 MacBook Pros. In particular I found it interesting that Mark Gurman made a point of mentioning them in his recent newsletter which makes me think we might be in for another early surprise:
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When will we see the M4 MacBook Pros?
- Thread starter amarcus
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Apple need to get a move on releasing the other M3 macs, by june people will be holding off buying until the M4 arrives.
So far we haven't had any rumors on M4 I believe. I would guess they are still minimum 12-18 months away.
So it seems that, they are trying to release a new MacBook Pro every year. Of course, the M2 Pros and Maxes were an exception. They were supposed to be released in Fall 2022, but there were supply constraints. The next release will give us a better idea of their release schedule. Whether they stick with the 12-month or 18-month schedule. In my opinion, the M3 event felt rushed, so only time will tell.
Until 2nm process comes out 2025 or later, any updates to M3 will be on the order of M2 versus M1. The more interesting question is when will M5 be available on 2nm process?
The M3 SOCs weren't earlier than expected, they were always slated for Q4 of 2023. The M2 SOCs were the ones that were delayed. We are very likely to see M4 SOCs Debut Q4 of 2024.
We have just new M3Max and you are asking for M4. What the hell is wrong with you?
I firmly believe that we'll see the M4 line-up hit again around Oct./Nov. of 2024. The reason is this.
I've read several news articles recently on Tsmc and their official plans and progress on there current 3nm nodes and future nodes that they have planned. They recently mentioned that the N3E node was solely for phones and Hpc and the N3P nodes and N3X would be for all other computing devices (computers, laptops, tablets, etc.). The N3E node is currently being made and will be ready very early next year for companies in preparation for their phones like MediaTech and Apples A18 chip for the Iphone 16 later in 2024. N3P will be in the works starting in the middle of 2024 and would be ready by the fall period to become the new M4 chipset.
Tsmc has then noted several times there ongoing push for 2nm however in 2025 they would still be working on N3X which is the last of the 3nm node and by the middle of that year start on N2 being there first 2nm node. Apple would skip N3X for various reasons and go into the 2nm node when N2 was done by the fall of 2025. I could go on further but I'll stop here as I'm sure someone may want to respectfully reply to this.
I've read several news articles recently on Tsmc and their official plans and progress on there current 3nm nodes and future nodes that they have planned. They recently mentioned that the N3E node was solely for phones and Hpc and the N3P nodes and N3X would be for all other computing devices (computers, laptops, tablets, etc.). The N3E node is currently being made and will be ready very early next year for companies in preparation for their phones like MediaTech and Apples A18 chip for the Iphone 16 later in 2024. N3P will be in the works starting in the middle of 2024 and would be ready by the fall period to become the new M4 chipset.
Tsmc has then noted several times there ongoing push for 2nm however in 2025 they would still be working on N3X which is the last of the 3nm node and by the middle of that year start on N2 being there first 2nm node. Apple would skip N3X for various reasons and go into the 2nm node when N2 was done by the fall of 2025. I could go on further but I'll stop here as I'm sure someone may want to respectfully reply to this.
I'm guessing October '24, give or take a month. I can't see the M series sliding out of synch with the A series or they'll end up with the same single core performance. There's a lot more Apple can gain from the current node. I'd hope for more from the M4 Pro especially, though sadly it's clear they've positioned the Pro as a mild upgrade on the base model going forward.
My gut tells me any MacBook Pro redesign next year would be for screen replacement (maybe OLED, but a long shot) or more likely finally use the stupid notch and add Face ID to the McBook Pro...
They did that with the Max and Ultra on the M2, where the base and Pro were limited to 3.5 GHz, but the Max and Ultra went to 3.7 GHz (in the MBP's, they did that for the 16" only).
But they didn't do that with the M3--the Base, Pro, and Max all got to 4.1 GHz.
I'd like to see them use higher clocks for the M3 Studio. We shall see.
N3P uses less power for the same performance than N3E, and also has a higher chip density. So, other than cost, there's no reason not to use it in phones.
The only one that they woudn't use for phones is N3X, which is higher performance than N3P, but achieves it by using higher voltage and thus higher power.
Also, I think you have a typo when you wrote "the N3E process is for phones and HPC", since phones and high performance computing are at the opposite ends of the spectrum.
Yes, I meant HPC. I'm just stating what Tsmc has mentioned a couple times already in this recent month about the N3E nodes use that they planned.
Typically 3-4 years, and has been so forever. This form factor is from October 2021, so this next revision or the one after that... I'd expect a VERY modest revision, though, since this seems to be a highly successful form factor, the M3 Max is powerful enough that the full-on version really wants the 16" case to cool it properly, and the last couple of redesigns have actually been retreats. The one bigger possibility, especially in 2025, would be OLED displays.
The current port selection is excellent. The only realistic addition is a convenience USB-A port, and Apple's probably too stubborn (but a few years ago, I would have said they were too stubborn for HDMI, and they did that). A CFExpress reader would be useful, but is photography-specific. Ethernet would require a thicker base unless they managed to stick it in the power brick (where it is on the current iMac), and I'm not sure if MagSafe 3 is set up for that? USB-C IS, and, since the far end of MagSafe is USB-C, they could always do a MagSafe with extra pins to accommodate Ethernet - the question is whether they would, and I don't think it likely. My guess is no new ports, and we probably won't lose any, either.
The size and weight is probably here to stay... The 14" is a competitive high-end Ultrabook, and they have the lighter MacBook Airs as well. The 16" is actually rather light for a mobile workstation of its considerable power (16" Lenovo, HP and Dell workstations in a similar performance and feature class are all between 0.5 and 1.5 lb heavier, as are Razer gaming/creative hybrids).
One thing that adds confusion is that the 14" and 16" (mostly) share the same processors, leading to an extremely light (for the power) 14" M3 Max option that really isn't fully cooled for sustained operation, as well as a 16" M3 Pro that is considerably heavier than some comparable business laptops.
Nobody but Apple dares to put a world-class mobile workstation like the M3 Max 16/40 in a 14" case that weighs under 4 lbs - neither Intel's nor AMDs solutions would fit at all. Unfortunately, it only sort of fits even with Apple's efficiency - the M3 Max, especially the 16/40, really needs the 16" case in order to be fully cooled. At the opposite extreme, the lightest 16" business laptops are nearly 2 lbs lighter than a 16" M3 Pro MBP (and the 14" case works just fine for an M3 Pro).
The M3 Pro is a powerful business laptop, while the M3 Max (especially with the big jump in power from M2 Max to M3 Max) is a mobile workstation. The line got more confusing when the Pro and Max got much more differentiated. I wonder if the M3 Pro would fit and cool in the 15" Air case, eliminating some of the confusion? The only catch would be the missing HDMI port.
Eliminate the 14" MacBook Pro in the next generation, but make the M3 Pro chip available in the 15" Air case? Continue the 16" with the M(N) Pro chip as well as the Max, for those who want ports and a big battery, but not necessarily huge CPU/GPU power.
That leaves:
13" Air - smallest and lightest, base chips only.
15" Air - big-screen ultraportable, mainstream business/education laptop , base/Pro chips
16" Pro - big-screen mobile workstation, Pro/Max chips, big battery, ports, large storage options.
Is this kind of what Apple will do???
The current port selection is excellent. The only realistic addition is a convenience USB-A port, and Apple's probably too stubborn (but a few years ago, I would have said they were too stubborn for HDMI, and they did that). A CFExpress reader would be useful, but is photography-specific. Ethernet would require a thicker base unless they managed to stick it in the power brick (where it is on the current iMac), and I'm not sure if MagSafe 3 is set up for that? USB-C IS, and, since the far end of MagSafe is USB-C, they could always do a MagSafe with extra pins to accommodate Ethernet - the question is whether they would, and I don't think it likely. My guess is no new ports, and we probably won't lose any, either.
The size and weight is probably here to stay... The 14" is a competitive high-end Ultrabook, and they have the lighter MacBook Airs as well. The 16" is actually rather light for a mobile workstation of its considerable power (16" Lenovo, HP and Dell workstations in a similar performance and feature class are all between 0.5 and 1.5 lb heavier, as are Razer gaming/creative hybrids).
One thing that adds confusion is that the 14" and 16" (mostly) share the same processors, leading to an extremely light (for the power) 14" M3 Max option that really isn't fully cooled for sustained operation, as well as a 16" M3 Pro that is considerably heavier than some comparable business laptops.
Nobody but Apple dares to put a world-class mobile workstation like the M3 Max 16/40 in a 14" case that weighs under 4 lbs - neither Intel's nor AMDs solutions would fit at all. Unfortunately, it only sort of fits even with Apple's efficiency - the M3 Max, especially the 16/40, really needs the 16" case in order to be fully cooled. At the opposite extreme, the lightest 16" business laptops are nearly 2 lbs lighter than a 16" M3 Pro MBP (and the 14" case works just fine for an M3 Pro).
The M3 Pro is a powerful business laptop, while the M3 Max (especially with the big jump in power from M2 Max to M3 Max) is a mobile workstation. The line got more confusing when the Pro and Max got much more differentiated. I wonder if the M3 Pro would fit and cool in the 15" Air case, eliminating some of the confusion? The only catch would be the missing HDMI port.
Eliminate the 14" MacBook Pro in the next generation, but make the M3 Pro chip available in the 15" Air case? Continue the 16" with the M(N) Pro chip as well as the Max, for those who want ports and a big battery, but not necessarily huge CPU/GPU power.
That leaves:
13" Air - smallest and lightest, base chips only.
15" Air - big-screen ultraportable, mainstream business/education laptop , base/Pro chips
16" Pro - big-screen mobile workstation, Pro/Max chips, big battery, ports, large storage options.
Is this kind of what Apple will do???
There is no confusion here, some people want maximum performance inside small laptop, that’s why the 14” MBP version exists.
Also your idea for 15” MBA with Mx Pro chip wont work - to run this chip properly you need cooling fans, it's still bigger then the 14” MBP, and it will eat from 16” MBP sales.
The correct lineup with two sizes for each category is fine. And if there is demand, they can also add UltraPortable 11-12” version.
Is there no room for a fan in the 15" Air? My reason for wondering about the sizes is that the 14" Pro is relatively thick and heavy for a light, medium to high performance business laptop these days. That's really what theM3 base and M3 Pro, especially the 11-core M3 Pro. The 15" Air is a more appealing combination of screen size and weight for ordinary office workers and students (outside of technical/creative fields.
At the same time, the 14" Pro has some trouble supporting the M3 Max - especially the 16/40 version. That just seems to be too much chip for a 14" laptop. When the Pro and Max were closer, it worked - but now that the Max sprouted a bunch of extra P-cores, it comes very close to the limits of the 14" cooling system and may exceed them.
The 14" ends up a bit thick and heavy (not outrageous, but there are quite a few lighter options in a lightness-obsessed market) in its less powerful configurations, and a bit under-cooled in its most powerful configurations. There may well be a sweet spot around the full-power M3 Pro chip and perhaps the cut-down M3 Max, but it's relatively narrow.
Lower-powered 16" configurations ALSO wind up a bit thick and heavy, but competitors offer the same thing. You can order something like a Lenovo P16 with a less powerful CPU and GPU if you want the ports, screen and battery more than you want small size and light weight. Even Razer (who offer one CPU choice) will let you dial a Blade back to a RTX 4060 GPU. A number of manufacturers offer "thicker than they need to be" 16-inchers, and there's a market that wants HDMI, SD readers, great screens and 100 Wh batteries but doesn't need a tippy-top CPU and GPU.
The difference is that the 16" is made for the M3 Max (and you can order it at less than its full potential if you want to), while the 14" has a narrow sweet spot in the middle of its range.
If you want an historical perspective, consider these introduction dates for the 15"/16" MBP's from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MacBook_Pro
I've calcualted the how long each form factor lasted by subtracting its introduction date from that of the model superseding it:
Aluminum: January 2006 => 33 months
Unibody: October 2008 => 44 months
Retina: June 2012 => 52 months
15" Touchbar: October 2016 => 37 months
16" Touchbar (Intel): November 2019 => 23 months
16" Apple Silicon: October 2021=> 28 months TO DATE
=> 37 months if replaced Nov 2024, and 49 months if replaced Nov. 2025.
As you can see, they update the form factor every three or four years—excepting the two outliers: The 15" Touchbar, whose form factor was widely crticized in part because of the butterfly keyboard; and the 16" Touchbar, which was updated when the MBP was updated to Apple Silicon. Based on this, I'd estimate we'll see a new form factor late this year, or next year.
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