Which Devices Won't Make the Cut for iOS 10?

[Yebubbleman]

I've thrown up threads like this around nowish for iOS 8 and iOS 9 and it seems like it brings out fun discussions and debates, so, what the hell, I'm doing it again for "iOS 10" "iOS X" or whatever the hell Apple is going to end up calling the next major release of iOS past 9.x.x.

So the name of the game is the same: which devices do you think, BASED SOLELY ON FACTS AND NOT AT ALL ON PRIDE FOR THE DEVICE YOU OWN, won't make the cut for the next release of iOS?

Some facts:

- iOS 9 didn't change minimum system requirements at all from iOS 8.

- iOS 9 made performance optimizations on newer devices, however older devices proceeded to get slower.

- There is at least one class action lawsuit pending for iPhone 4s owners complaining about sluggish performance.

- The A5 processors in the first generation iPad mini and the iPad 2 are the same; the former differs by having newer wireless hardware and better cameras.

- The A5 processors in the iPhone 4s and the fifth generation iPod touch are the same, however they are 200MHz slower than those of the first generation iPad mini and the iPad 2.

- The A5X in the third generation iPad has 1GB of RAM double the graphics performance of the A5 in the four aformentioned A5 devices. As has been indicated by several sources, this only serves to compensate for the additional power needed to run the retina display and that, otherwise, performance is on par with the iPad 2 if not a hair slower.

- The A7 in the iPhone 5s and the iPad mini 2 and 3 is the same. The A7 in the original iPad Air is a little faster.

I'm going to assume that A8 and A8X devices (iPad mini 4, iPhone 6, iPhone 6 Plus, Sixth Generation iPod touch, iPad Air 2), the iPad Air 2, and all A9 and A9X devices (iPhone 6s, iPhone 6s Plus, iPad Pro) are safe. I am going to similarly assume that no one here disagrees.

Personally, and this is more of a gut feeling, but I get the sense that Apple is going to try to go 64-bit only for iOS on the next go-around. Call it a hunch or a sneaking suspicion, but given that they have otherwise forked development for it and been slowly encouraging app submissions to be 64-bit native, I think they want to press forward in that regard and, in typical Apple fashion, eschew the old technology (in this case 32-bit iOS).

What say you all?

 

[C DM]

A good amount of discussion about it all at https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/which-devices-will-get-ios-10.1949265/

 

[lagwagon]

I've thrown up threads like this around nowish for iOS 8 and iOS 9 and it seems like it brings out fun discussions and debates, so, what the hell, I'm doing it again for "iOS 10" "iOS X" or whatever the hell Apple is going to end up calling the next major release of iOS past 9.x.x.

So the name of the game is the same: which devices do you think, BASED SOLELY ON FACTS AND NOT AT ALL ON PRIDE FOR THE DEVICE YOU OWN, won't make the cut for the next release of iOS?

Some facts:

- iOS 9 didn't change minimum system requirements at all from iOS 8.

- iOS 9 made performance optimizations on newer devices, however older devices proceeded to get slower.

- There is at least one class action lawsuit pending for iPhone 4s owners complaining about sluggish performance.

- The A5 processors in the first generation iPad mini and the iPad 2 are the same; the former differs by having newer wireless hardware and better cameras.

- The A5 processors in the iPhone 4s and the fifth generation iPod touch are the same, however they are 200MHz slower than those of the first generation iPad mini and the iPad 2.

- The A5X in the third generation iPad has 1GB of RAM double the graphics performance of the A5 in the four aformentioned A5 devices. As has been indicated by several sources, this only serves to compensate for the additional power needed to run the retina display and that, otherwise, performance is on par with the iPad 2 if not a hair slower.

- The A7 in the iPhone 5s and the iPad mini 2 and 3 is the same. The A7 in the original iPad Air is a little faster.

I'm going to assume that A8 and A8X devices (iPad mini 4, iPhone 6, iPhone 6 Plus, Sixth Generation iPod touch, iPad Air 2), the iPad Air 2, and all A9 and A9X devices (iPhone 6s, iPhone 6s Plus, iPad Pro) are safe. I am going to similarly assume that no one here disagrees.

Personally, and this is more of a gut feeling, but I get the sense that Apple is going to try to go 64-bit only for iOS on the next go-around. Call it a hunch or a sneaking suspicion, but given that they have otherwise forked development for it and been slowly encouraging app submissions to be 64-bit native, I think they want to press forward in that regard and, in typical Apple fashion, eschew the old technology (in this case 32-bit iOS).

What say you all?

99% sure A5 will not be supported in iOS 10. A6 likely to still be.

I would like them to ditch 32bit altogether in iOS 10 but I don't think we'll see that happen until iOS 11 next year. (They did it years ago with OS X Lion. 64bit devices are all they sell now, so it's soon time to do the same for iOS.)

About your fact of iOS 9 made old devices slower. Sure, true up till now for the most part, but from what I've seen and heard of 9.3 beta is pretty solid on everything now. Even the A5 and A6 devices.

 

[GreyOS]

I would like them to ditch 32bit altogether in iOS 10 but I don't think we'll see that happen until iOS 11 next year. (They did it years ago with OS X Lion. 64bit devices are all they sell now, so it's soon time to do the same for iOS.)

It'd hardly be enthusiastically declaring iOS a 64 bit only OS if they wait till iOS 11, at which point no one would have expected them to support the old 32 bit devices anyway, not because they're 32 bit, but because they're old.

This excitement about iOS becoming 64 bit seems weird. We know it will happen, because they only make 64 bit devices, and will stop supporting old devices. If that's all you can say about it then it's not really worth remarking on.

 

[lagwagon]

It'd hardly be enthusiastically declaring iOS a 64 bit only OS if they wait till iOS 11, at which point no one would have expected them to support the old 32 bit devices anyway, not because they're 32 bit, but because they're old.

This excitement about iOS becoming 64 bit seems weird. We know it will happen, because they only make 64 bit devices, and will stop supporting old devices. If that's all you can say about it then it's not really worth remarking on.

The excitement for me at least is that by ditching all the old 32bit code it could making a leaner, more efficient OS. For all we know some long standing bugs (major and/or minor) might be in all that baggage it's carrying right now of supporting 32bit. It moves the OS forward to better future possibilities. That is why I personally want it sooner than later.

And yes of course it will naturally happen as you've said. But the question is when. iOS 10? 11? 12? If it's not worth remarking not on, then why did you remark on it? Seems as though you're attempting to pick a fight for the sake of it.

 

[GreyOS]

The excitement for me at least is that by ditching all the old 32bit code it could making a leaner, more efficient OS. For all we know some long standing bugs (major and/or minor) might be in all that baggage it's carrying right now of supporting 32bit. It moves the OS forward to better future possibilities. That is why I personally want it sooner than later.

And yes of course it will naturally happen as you've said. But the question is when. iOS 10? 11? 12? If it's not worth remarking not on, then why did you remark on it? Seems as though you're attempting to pick a fight for the sake of it.

I'm saying it's being framed wrong. I don't think the question is "when will iOS go 64 bit only?", instead it's 'what will be the first iOS to not support iPhone 5, 5c, iPad 4 or iPad Mini".

I honestly think that is largely what Apple think about: which devices they can support and for how long. When those decives I listed above stop being supported then we'll have a 64 bit only iOS.

I don't think Lion was ever promoted by Apple as the first 64 bit only OS X. It wasn't even that that was its only requirement to run it (ie to be a 64 bit Mac), cos it didn't support some early 64 bit Macs either. They built Lion for certain models, they all happened to be 64 bit.

And regarding it being a leaner, less buggy OS by virtue of it dropping 32 bit builds... Again, we can look at your own example of Lion to know there's no guarantee

But yes, it's all rather unremarkable, sorry if I seemed aggressive!

 

[mi7chy]

Considering ad blocking requires 64-bit the next cut off is likely to be 2GB or more DRAM.

 

[Yebubbleman]

99% sure A5 will not be supported in iOS 10. A6 likely to still be.

I would like them to ditch 32bit altogether in iOS 10 but I don't think we'll see that happen until iOS 11 next year. (They did it years ago with OS X Lion. 64bit devices are all they sell now, so it's soon time to do the same for iOS.)

About your fact of iOS 9 made old devices slower. Sure, true up till now for the most part, but from what I've seen and heard of 9.3 beta is pretty solid on everything now. Even the A5 and A6 devices.

The 9.3 beta feels mildly sluggish on the iPad mini 2 that I currently have it on. I'd be shocked if it performed FASTER on A5 and A6 devices than the current build of 9.2.1.

I'm saying it's being framed wrong. I don't think the question is "when will iOS go 64 bit only?", instead it's 'what will be the first iOS to not support iPhone 5, 5c, iPad 4 or iPad Mini".


I honestly think that is largely what Apple think about: which devices they can support and for how long. When those decives I listed above stop being supported then we'll have a 64 bit only iOS.

This is true, however, they do consider the cost of engineering when it comes to how much work it will take to add support for something they consider old. Dropping support for an A-series chip that is 4 years old, let alone 5 years old, isn't something Apple has ever been above doing, especially if it will give people reasons to buy new iPads and iPhones. Hell, they got me to upgrade to the sixth generation iPod touch from the fifth based on the speed improvements alone (and that was before the latter has stopped receiving iOS updates). The A5 and A5X are definitely tired at this point. I agree that the A6 has life left in it, albeit not much. Though, there may be hidden advantages to Apple of going 64-bit only before A6 starts running as poorly as A5 does today that we don't yet know.

Anyway, I didn't mean to frame the question as to when Apple would go 64-bit only, but rather to frame my prediction/answer to that question that way. While my hunch still stands, they are statistically more likely to keep A6 around for a bit after they ditch A5.

I don't think Lion was ever promoted by Apple as the first 64 bit only OS X. It wasn't even that that was its only requirement to run it (ie to be a 64 bit Mac), cos it didn't support some early 64 bit Macs either. They built Lion for certain models, they all happened to be 64 bit.

And regarding it being a leaner, less buggy OS by virtue of it dropping 32 bit builds... Again, we can look at your own example of Lion to know there's no guarantee

Lion is sort of a weird example now that I think of it. Mountain Lion was the first OS that didn't give you the option of even booting with the 32-bit kernel (because it was the first version of OS X to ditch it altogether). So, technically, that was the first TRUE (inside-and-out) 64-bit version of OS X. And yes, I'd imagine that in Lion the Core Duo and Core Solo were ditched, not anywhere near as much because they were 32-bit only processors as they were because the architecture that they came from (Enhanced Pentium M microarchitecture) was substantially less advanced than the Core 2 architecture. But yeah, I guess the point was that Apple did end OS release support on all 32-bit only Macs when Lion came out.

That said, Mountain Lion was far far less buggy than Lion and frankly, was the last SOLID release (aside from El Capitan, that is).

But yes, it's all rather unremarkable, sorry if I seemed aggressive!

I don't think you seemed aggressive at all! So, no worries!

Considering ad blocking requires 64-bit the next cut off is likely to be 2GB or more DRAM.

Nah, there's still a world of difference between 512MB of RAM and 1GB of RAM. The non-iPad 1GB RAM devices still perform quite well with iOS 9. I do see some sluggishness on the iPad mini 2 with the 9.3 beta, but that could just as easily be a "beta" thing more than the state of iOS on an iPad with only 1GB of RAM. Though, I suppose it is possible; iPads do tend to show that kind of resource limitation before iPhones and iPod touches do.
[doublepost=1456865946][/doublepost]Am curious: Those of you that voted that the iPhone 5s and the iPad mini 2/mini 3 won't get support (but left out the original iPad Air), what is your reasoning?

 

[Sirious]

Definitely not iPad 2.

All A5 devices I think

 

[electronicsguy]

"BASED SOLELY ON FACTS" - rather ironic to say this don't you think, considering the "fact" that on-one here makes Apple's tech, business or marketing decisions. (at least not publicly).

 

[The Doctor11]

i think all A5 devices will be dropped. iPad 2, iPhone 4s, iPad third gen, iPad mini 1, iPod 5th gen.

 

[Abazigal]

I guess it's safe to say that the A5 devices won't get updated. Question is - will the iPhone 5 get iOS 10 or not? On one hand, it does have 1 gb of ram, but it is also the last non-64 bit device.

 

[Damolee]

6S Plus if we get a repeat of iOS 9.

 

[C DM]

6S Plus if we get a repeat of iOS 9.

What does that mean?

 

[estabya]

I think we can almost all agree that A5 based devices will probably be left behind. The biggest question in my mind (like it was talked about already) is whether or not A6 devices will get the update. I could see it going either way, but I'm leaning towards a "yes" since the 5C was sold as little as 6 months ago. Who knows though; 3GS got 3 major updates, 4 got 3, 4S is on 4 right now. The original iPad only got 2 major updates, but the iPad 2 is on number 5. There hasn't been a lot of consistency as far as which devices get left behind on any given release. So they may give A6 device owners another year of software updates. Guess we will have to wait until June.

 

[lagwagon]

I think we can almost all agree that A5 based devices will probably be left behind. The biggest question in my mind (like it was talked about already) is whether or not A6 devices will get the update. I could see it going either way, but I'm leaning towards a "yes" since the 5C was sold as little as 6 months ago. Who knows though; 3GS got 3 major updates, 4 got 3, 4S is on 4 right now. The original iPad only got 2 major updates, but the iPad 2 is on number 5. There hasn't been a lot of consistency as far as which devices get left behind on any given release. So they may give A6 device owners another year of software updates. Guess we will have to wait until June.

iOS moving to 64bit only is inevitable. I would give it a 50/50 chance of that happening this year. Pretty much a 100% chance next year if it doesn't happen this year.

So A5 gone from iOS 10 for sure this year, 50/50 chance A6 gone as well. iOS 11 probably for sure A7 and up only next year.

 

[estabya]

iOS moving to 64bit only is inevitable. I would give it a 50/50 chance of that happening this year. Pretty much a 100% chance next year if it doesn't happen this year.

So A5 gone from iOS 10 for sure this year, 50/50 chance A6 gone as well. iOS 11 probably for sure A7 and up only next year.

I agree. I'm just not sure whether dropping 32 bit support is a priority for Apple right now. There are still as many people using a 5/5C as a 6+/6S+, so I think it's more a question of whether or not Apple wants to pressure those people to upgrade. Might be a lot easier to do with the incoming SE.

 

[lagwagon]

I agree. I'm just not sure whether dropping 32 bit support is a priority for Apple right now. There are still as many people using a 5/5C as a 6+/6S+, so I think it's more a question of whether or not Apple wants to pressure those people to upgrade. Might be a lot easier to do with the incoming SE.

Exactly where the SE comes in. Offers the old size that some prefer and updates the guts of the device to current.

OS X ditched 32bit processors years ago with Lion. Can't keep holding off on something because some cling to their old devices. Technology would never advance of that was the case.

 

[George Waseem]

I've thrown up threads like this around nowish for iOS 8 and iOS 9 and it seems like it brings out fun discussions and debates, so, what the hell, I'm doing it again for "iOS 10" "iOS X" or whatever the hell Apple is going to end up calling the next major release of iOS past 9.x.x.

So the name of the game is the same: which devices do you think, BASED SOLELY ON FACTS AND NOT AT ALL ON PRIDE FOR THE DEVICE YOU OWN, won't make the cut for the next release of iOS?

Some facts:

- iOS 9 didn't change minimum system requirements at all from iOS 8.

- iOS 9 made performance optimizations on newer devices, however older devices proceeded to get slower.

- There is at least one class action lawsuit pending for iPhone 4s owners complaining about sluggish performance.

- The A5 processors in the first generation iPad mini and the iPad 2 are the same; the former differs by having newer wireless hardware and better cameras.

- The A5 processors in the iPhone 4s and the fifth generation iPod touch are the same, however they are 200MHz slower than those of the first generation iPad mini and the iPad 2.

- The A5X in the third generation iPad has 1GB of RAM double the graphics performance of the A5 in the four aformentioned A5 devices. As has been indicated by several sources, this only serves to compensate for the additional power needed to run the retina display and that, otherwise, performance is on par with the iPad 2 if not a hair slower.

- The A7 in the iPhone 5s and the iPad mini 2 and 3 is the same. The A7 in the original iPad Air is a little faster.

I'm going to assume that A8 and A8X devices (iPad mini 4, iPhone 6, iPhone 6 Plus, Sixth Generation iPod touch, iPad Air 2), the iPad Air 2, and all A9 and A9X devices (iPhone 6s, iPhone 6s Plus, iPad Pro) are safe. I am going to similarly assume that no one here disagrees.

Personally, and this is more of a gut feeling, but I get the sense that Apple is going to try to go 64-bit only for iOS on the next go-around. Call it a hunch or a sneaking suspicion, but given that they have otherwise forked development for it and been slowly encouraging app submissions to be 64-bit native, I think they want to press forward in that regard and, in typical Apple fashion, eschew the old technology (in this case 32-bit iOS).

What say you all?

There are still a lot of A5 devices, iPad mini & iPod touch 5 are still being sold in many countries. My prediction is that apple will continue to develop iOS 9 by releasing newer versions that support A5 devices while in the same time they release iOS 10 for A6 devices and later. iPhone 5, 5C, iPad 4 run iOS 9 perfectly, there is no comparison with A5, iPhone 5 is not anywhere near to any iPhone 4s's lag. some A7 devices are not any where near to the optimization given to A6 devices. The iPhone 5 is still in a very close competition with 64-bit devices like the iPhone 5s, iPhone 6. iPad 4 outperforms iPad mini 2 & iPad Air running iOS 9.2.1. A5 devices are getting slower each day, it's time for them not to be supported anymore but the problem is that they make about 46% of all iPads & about 30% of all Apple devices supported, Apple needs to stay developing iOS 9 for A5 devices while developing iOS 10 for A6 devices and later. Apple is supposed to have responsibility for keeping A5 devices in stores for so much time compared to other devices with other chip variants. Stopping A5 & A6 devices support in the same time will mean that Apple is going to stop the support given to 50 % of all Apple devices.

 

[Max(IT)]

I'd like Apple to switch to 64 bits only with iOS 10 (so anything below iPhone 5S / iPad Air no more supported) but realistically they are going to ditch the A5 generation, keeping A6 supported with a somewhat limited set of functionalities. The critical point is the iPhone 5C, sold until one year ago.

 

[GreyOS]

iOS moving to 64bit only is inevitable. I would give it a 50/50 chance of that happening this year. Pretty much a 100% chance next year if it doesn't happen this year.

So A5 gone from iOS 10 for sure this year, 50/50 chance A6 gone as well. iOS 11 probably for sure A7 and up only next year.

I agree with your analysis but just want to add that although Apple are introducing an attractive 64bit upgrade path for 5C owners with the 5SE, I think the existence of the 5C probably plays an important role in determining that 50/50 probability you describe.

That is, without the 5C I think they would have been more likely to drop the 5 with iOS 10 than they are now that the 5C exists. It's hard to imagine them dropping the 5 without dropping the 5C too. Still agree it's 50/50 - or anybody's guess - right now though.

Personally I think the reaction to dropping three consecutive years' devices (even if one was only budget) in one fell swoop would be too negative for Apple to do it.

 

[Damolee]

What does that mean?

iOS 9 ran like garbage on my iPhone 6.

 

[C DM]

iOS 9 ran like garbage on my iPhone 6.

So how does that relate to 6s Plus not getting iOS 10 (since it seems like that's what you were saying in that earlier post)?

 

[Damolee]

So how does that relate to 6s Plus not getting iOS 10 (since it seems like that's what you were saying in that earlier post)?

Won't make the cut can also mean it'll miss the boat, won't be usable etc

Of course the 6S will get it but I doubt it'll be worth the update hassle.

 

[C DM]

Won't make the cut can also mean it'll miss the boat, won't be usable etc

Of course the 6S will get it but I doubt it'll be worth the update hassle.

Don't think the 6 or the 6s (or even the 5 or 5s) line of phones is unsusbale with iOS 9...but that's a different discussion.