Which machines will macOS drop support for next?

[macrumor2018]

So far, these appear to have been the minimum system requirements for the Mac OS for previous releases:

OS	Minimum System Requirements
OS X Leopard	PowerPC G4 @ 867 MHz or greater
OS X Snow Leopard	Intel
OS X Lion	Intel 64-bit
OS X Mountain Lion	Intel 64-bit + 64-bit EFI
macOS Sierra	Mac models shipped with OS X Snow Leopard (10.6) preinstalled that never shipped with OS X Leopard in the past and lack BCM4321 Wi-Fi card
macOS Mojave	Graphics with Metal support
macOS Big Sur	802.11ac Wi-Fi + minimum 1.5 GB Graphics Memory + no other model in the same series released at same time which did not have at least 1.5 GB Graphics Memory.

As such, macOS Big Sur supports the following Macs:

• iMac (2014 or newer)
• iMac Pro
• MacBook (2015 or newer)
• MacBook Air (Mid 2013 or newer)
• MacBook Pro (Late 2013 or newer)
• Mac Pro (2013 or newer)
• Mac mini (2014 or newer)

I suspect the next macOS cut will occur in 2022, but I could be wrong. When it occurs, my guess is the following Macs will be supported, as they support USB-C and don't currently chime on startup as far as I know:

• iMac (2017 or newer)
• iMac Pro (2017 or newer)
• MacBook (2017 or newer)
• MacBook Air (2018 or newer)
• MacBook Pro (2016 or newer)
• Mac Pro (2019 or newer)
• Mac mini (2018 or newer)

What are your thoughts on this?

 

[frou]

On this topic I think it's a mistake to put much onus on "technical" reasons.

The minute a Mac model is born, there's no question of IF it will eventually get dropped from OS support for some reason. Apple have already decided that it WILL get dropped from OS support. So, when the time comes that they decide pull the trigger, any attempt to back-solve the equation on a purely technical basis is not the full picture.

It's guaranteed that inside Apple, some stakeholder in these decisions has the basis "We think it's time those people still running model X spent some money and bought a new Mac."