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Which Macs will skip M5 and wait for M6?
- Thread starter hoorayforhollywood
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Based on history (which isn’t always accurate); laptops get yearly updates & desktop are less likely to. I don’t think any desktop Mac got M3 at all, did they?
The Mini and iMac might have had a skip of their AS sequences but it's not like it will repeat. The iMac went M1 -> M3 - > M4. The Mac mini went M1 -> M2/Pro -> M4/Pro. The M1 to M2 was the longest period, M2 to M3 faster, and the M4 faster yet. So both the iMac and Mini are more likely to be almost yearly as long as Apple doesn't extend the M4 to M5 period too much.
Now Apple needs to accelerate the Mac Studio to M4 Max/Ultra next in first half of 2025, and also the Mac Pro with M4 Ultra's before WWDC 2025. Wouldn't want the M5 to come out before thats accomplished.
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I think there is a strong possibility both the Mac mini and iMac will skip M5.
i expect the Mini and studio to skip M5. New models in two years post their now/soon release.
smaller market.
MBP, bigger market. Enough folks around to switch to a newer one.
It´s not just the revenue. It´s also about the security that you can produce so and so much, and they´ll get sold.
That´s how i see the logic.
smaller market.
MBP, bigger market. Enough folks around to switch to a newer one.
It´s not just the revenue. It´s also about the security that you can produce so and so much, and they´ll get sold.
That´s how i see the logic.
In the future if a iMac can simply have a M5 instead of a M4 like the M4 replaced the M3 then it's likely to occur for two reasons. First because it's a trivial update to implement, second because the Macs now play a more important growth role then before as Apple wants to increase sales broadly while promoting Apple Intelligence. The next step would be Mac studio being updated by March/April time frame, along with Mac Pro. Both are using M2 SoC's still.
Also take note that their Servers will go from M2 Ultra to M4 Ultra in 2025 also. Time will tell if this is the direction Apple is finally changing to after the last three years.
Apple Intelligence Servers Expected to Start Using M4 Chips Next Year After M2 Ultra This Year
Apple plans to start using the M4 chip in its Apple Intelligence servers next year, according to a Nikkei Asia report this week, citing TrendForce...
www.macrumors.com
Also this perspective
www.bloomberg.com
Apple’s Future Hinges on Smaller Bets, Rather Than Next Big Thing
Apple may never find another product with as much revenue potential as the iPhone, but it can still thrive with several new Apple Watch- or iPad-level businesses. Also: The company launches an internal project to evaluate the smart glasses market and names a new vice president of design. Plus, a...
www.bloomberg.com
That means continue to market everything as useful to iPhones owners. Products with older AS SoC's aren't going to cut it now.
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This all depends if Hidra is real and/or something Apple will release as a consumer product.
If so I would expect a probably 18-24 month cadence, assuming it is not a derivative design. Latest rumors seem to be that we’re going to have a repeat of M2 with M4 which isn’t bad but not what I was looking for.
If Apple does do an M4 Ultra and also is working on a desktop focused design then I could see that shipping in 2026, but who knows what will happen.
The time is right for Apple to take some of the high-end marketshare, a lot of people don’t like Windows 11 very much and I doubt Microsoft is going to radically change tact to cater to the enthusiast niche since it’s a small portion of their market.
It’s exactly the opposite in Apple’s case with the low volume highest-tier desktops, and it’s the perfect opportunity to capture new users and the media’s attention with something world-class. If it was Steve Jobs’ Apple we may have already seen it, but I think it’s probably coming within the next few years regardless.
If so I would expect a probably 18-24 month cadence, assuming it is not a derivative design. Latest rumors seem to be that we’re going to have a repeat of M2 with M4 which isn’t bad but not what I was looking for.
If Apple does do an M4 Ultra and also is working on a desktop focused design then I could see that shipping in 2026, but who knows what will happen.
The time is right for Apple to take some of the high-end marketshare, a lot of people don’t like Windows 11 very much and I doubt Microsoft is going to radically change tact to cater to the enthusiast niche since it’s a small portion of their market.
It’s exactly the opposite in Apple’s case with the low volume highest-tier desktops, and it’s the perfect opportunity to capture new users and the media’s attention with something world-class. If it was Steve Jobs’ Apple we may have already seen it, but I think it’s probably coming within the next few years regardless.
I thought we would be in a situation where the iMac got odd-numbered M-chips and the Mini and Studio would get even-numbered M-chips but I think the drive to get away from the M3 chip process has thrown that prediction out. I now think it makes sense for products that require base, Pro and Max chips to be updated yearly/with each cycle. I mean, why would you not? You're making the new chips anyway in bulk for the laptops so why not update the desktops and pick up more sales? For Macs that use the Ultra (or whatever replaces it), I can see them skipping cycles as it the sales may not warrant yearly design / manufacture of the highest end chip.
I would think the upgrade cycle for ASi Apple Intelligence servers & ASi high-end desktop/workstation machines (Mac Studio/Mac Pro) would be the same, so new chips every two or three years...?
Very possible. However, previously Ultra codenames for the M1 and M2 where the Max code name + 2C
List of Apple codenames - Wikipedia
M1 Max: Jade-1C
M1 Ultra: Jade-2C
M2 Max: Rhodes-1C
M2 Ultra: Rhodes-2C
M4 Max is Brava. Given that Hidra is a new code name and Gurman originally said that Hidra was a desktop-specific die people (me and others) assumed that it could be something new. Yes it (or two or more such die) might fit where the Ultra would be, but based on a different scheme than the previous M1 and M2 Ultras. However, Gurman's latest musings do make the M4 Ultra sound very similar to what we would expect an M4 Ultra to be based M1 and M2 (i.e. two M4 Maxes). That said, maybe even if the core counts are the same, there will be other differences ... we just don't know yet. So everyone is in wait and see mode.
Yeah I would say it will skip it. The M6 series is actually going to be a huge year; I reckon that the iPad Pro will get the M6, along with every single Mac getting some sort of flavor of M6 between 2026 and 2027. That's also the time I plan on upgrading my computer.
I suspect that was more likely due to unexpected m3 production issues/costs than an actual plan to withhold m3 from desktops.
Something clearly went sideways with M3 as it was in many ways a downgrade from M2 and whilst faster, looks like it was planned to be significantly faster - the m2 pro -> m3 pro gap wasn't much.
The much bigger gap from m3-m4 than from m2-m3 is probably because m3 failed to meet expectations in some ways and thus wasn't "worth" refreshing all the devices to use it.
Everything went from m1 to m2 over time, I don't think we'll see m5, m6, etc. get skipped on things unless they're just rolling out prior gen in a product for cost reasons (e.g., low spec MacBook Air, iPad Air) - at which point said devices will get the chip the following year - or something goes sideways during development/production again.
None? MacBook Air will skip M4 and go straight to M5. Every current Mac will get the M5 generation.
So here’s the pattern:
M1/M2; M3; M4/M5; M6; M7/M8
So here’s the pattern:
M1/M2; M3; M4/M5; M6; M7/M8
I very, very much doubt that apple will not put the m4 in the MacBook Air. They clearly have enough production capacity to put it in a lot of stuff, and it's such a huge leap from the m2/m3. The m3 probably costs apple more than the m4 does to make due to the problems they ran into with the process it uses. This is why a lot of stuff stayed on m2 generation.
The basic flaw in your argument is illustrated in your use of “unexpected” in your post (#17) above mine. There was nothing unexpected about the risks, costs, and yields of N3/N3B. The fact that TSMC 3nm would have three primary nodes (N3B, N3E, N3P) over three years, along with the relative risks, costs, and yields for each, was known to Apple when the designs for A17/M3 were begun. If any Apple product was affected by delays and/or changes in TSMC’s early 3nm development, it would have been A16 (which ended up on N4P).
This narrative that “unexpected” problems emerged in volume production is not credible. The relative differences in cost and yield would have been known to Apple far earlier than your argument calls for. They may have been factors (among others) in the choices made for M3, but those choices were made at the beginning, not the end.
You may be right that MacBook Air will get M4. There’s no reason why not. But my sense is that Apple will keep moving, pressing forward, and that agility means they are going to be aggressive. They are not going to sit around and wait for Qualcomm to catch up. M5 MacBook Air in June 2025.
Macbook Air should be an spring product. Qualcomm will never catch up until Microsoft kills x86 legacy and force developers to jump arm.
Macbook Air will be on M4 and M5/A19 pro will be an second half 2025 thing
The only question is about Mac Studio/Mac Pro they probably are 50% to be on the M5 family
Macbook Air will be on M4 and M5/A19 pro will be an second half 2025 thing
The only question is about Mac Studio/Mac Pro they probably are 50% to be on the M5 family
If apple is going to wait that long they may as well discontinue those product lines.
They'll get M4 ultra or be killed off.