Historically, Kuo. In the past few years, Kuo and Gurman are about equal. It really depends on the subject.
Kuo's predictions are over a longer horizon, so accuracy can't possibly be the same because things are bound to change. An example is the solid state buttons on iPhone 15 Pro/Max. Apple clearly intended for that and even Cirrus Logic issued a letter to investors later confirming it. Another example is the re-use of A15 in iPhone 14. He was one of the first to reveal that to a doubtful audience. But he has plenty of misses like 13.6-inch M1 MacBook Air.
Gurman has good accuracy on the Mac products, specifically M-series processors, iOS and macOS features, and what goes behind the scenes of Apple product development. Even then, he has misses. For example, in July, he said he was expecting M3 Macs in October 2023. Now that Kuo is saying no M3 MacBook this year, Gurman changed his tune to expect a refreshed iPad in October.
Many people don't appreciate the detailed supplier info that Kuo reveals. Many people under appreciate the detailed OS features that Gurman shares or the historical development of Vision Pro and how it came to be.
