Who will become No 3?

[vmachiel]

So it's clear at this point that iOS and Android rule the world in terms of market share. But who is going to have the number 3 spot this year? Will it be BB10 or WP8?

WP8 looks new and fresh, which should attract people. BB has at least some market share and has some cool multitasking/hub concepts. Both lack in terms of apps.

What do you guys think?

 

[cynics]

I want to think MS will but I don't know much about blackberry. I think blackberry is a household name compared to windows.

I was at a party a while back and a windows phone commercial came on TV and 3 or so people comment "windows makes phones?" Since they were girls my close friends and I didn't speak up (would have been cock blocking ourselves to early). But it goes without mention of their foot hold in the mobile market.

 

[vmachiel]

Yeah, where I live, a lot of kids still use BB and no one knows WP exists. BB might have a real shot here, but with their Q10 being delayed, they are making it difficult for themselves.

 

[ChazUK]

I'd say Microsoft.

Like they did with XBOX, they'll keep throwing money at it until it does well by default.

 

[Fernandez21]

webOS FTW!!!

Sigh, that's not true, it's pretty much dead. I think blackberry, they've held on to the three spot with an ancient OS, no reason they can't stay there with their new one.

 

[nick_elt]

Blackberry is dead.

 

[Technarchy]

Android...

 

[ChristianVirtual]

RIM aka BB is done ... They already leave market like Japan by not localizing the SW anymore. Makes a bad impression to global customer. So I would guess WP8 comes in at least third with the potential to catch up further (specially in enterprise environment)

 

[b166er]

I'd say WP8. It's very business friendly, the apps are starting to come along, and MS has the money. I think BB is pretty much done at this point. It's sad to see them on the way out, but it's kind of their own fault. When the iPhone and then Androids starting coming out, BB looked at them and laughed them off as a non-threat. A few years later BB is on the verge of death. MS at least saw what was going on, and while they are a little late to the party, I think WP8 is very appealing to a lot of people.

It all comes down to advertising, and MS, Google, and Apple seem to have an unlimited supply of cash to make that happen.

 

[Liquorpuki]

IDC predicts WP8 by 2016 with around 10% market share. It also predicts iOS increasing a few % points and Android dropping slightly

 

[onthecouchagain]

Android...

If I'm not mistaken, the OP is talking about marketshare. You think Android will fall to 3rd spot in marketshare? If so, who will be 1 and 2? Genuinely curious.

 

[zbarvian]

I think BB10 and WP8 both pale in comparison to iOS and Android, but I'd probably have to give the edge to BB10. As mentioned before, though, Microsoft definitely has the financial advantage and thus more marketing money, so they'll probably end up in 3rd.

 

[vmachiel]

The "Microsoft trows money at it" seems very likely, it is already happening. BB will have to do some awesome things this year if it wants to stay in the market. BB10 is good, but I expected something we had not seen before at the event and instead we got Alice Keys

I'm kind of rooting for BB, but i'm not sure about their chances.

 

[unlinked]

So it's clear at this point that iOS and Android rule the world in terms of market share. But who is going to have the number 3 spot this year? Will it be BB10 or WP8?

What do you guys think?

I don't think either of them will have 3rd spot. BB7 will hold on to it for this year.

Probably won't see many market share stats broken down granular enough to be sure.

 

[aneftp]

IDC predicts WP8 by 2016 with around 10% market share. It also predicts iOS increasing a few % points and Android dropping slightly

Same IDC claimd or predicted Windows phone os to be number 2 by 2015. These tech predictions are unreliable.

http://www.slashgear.com/windows-phone-number-two-smartphone-os-by-2015-predicts-idc-29143143/

 

[nick_elt]

Well if wp8 doesn't Get it they really Have to look at themselves, its there on a plate for them.

 

[Liquorpuki]

Same IDC claimd or predicted Windows phone os to be number 2 by 2015. These tech predictions are unreliable.

http://www.slashgear.com/windows-phone-number-two-smartphone-os-by-2015-predicts-idc-29143143/

That 2015 prediction has been revised to predict iOS gaining share, Android losing share but still remaining #1, and WP8 taking 3rd place by 2016. These are all speculations but those IDC guys run a ton of simulations to guess where the market's heading. Everyone here just goes by their biases

 

[aneftp]

That 2015 prediction has been revised to predict iOS gaining share, Android losing share but still remaining #1, and WP8 taking 3rd place by 2016. These are all speculations but those IDC guys run a ton of simulations to guess where the market's heading. Everyone here just goes by their biases

Tech predictions are unreliable at best. It's a rapidly changing market.

Who in 2008 would have thought Android would be number one by end of 2010/early 2011. Things happen fast. Microsoft announces they would abandon windows mobile os in 2008 cause they couldn't Jerry ridge it to be backwards compatible. Than RIM announces in 2010 BB OS7 would be end of the line for that OS. And to top it off Nokia announces plans partner with Microsoft in early 2011.

Things will and can change in 1-2 years. Who knows if RIM sells out for a premium to Microsoft. That's the million dollar question now.

We have seen the demise of Palm OS, than webos (the treo was probably the best selling smartphone for 3-4 years up until early 2008)

Symbian dominates the market for 5-6 years.

The market maybe stabilizes this year finally. There has been so much change from 2009-2012. And 2016 is a long way off.

 

[vikingjunior]

Its a two horse race there is no third horse
.

 

[mikeo007]

If I had to pick, Windows phone only because they actually bring something different to the table. Blackberry is just recycling various ideas from their previous failed phones, along with iOS and Android. The few unique features to their new phone are poorly executed.

Everything on their new phones seems to be not quite as good as the competition.

In all honesty though, I don't think either is going to make a splash, even at #3. I'm hoping a real competitor comes along, because neither of these 2 are going to do much.

 

[vmachiel]

So most of you are leaning towards windows phone 8. Thinking about it some more, I think BB10 is too little, too late. Especially with Nokia make quality low end devices (520 and 620).

 

[kenypowa]

Its a two horse race there is no third horse
.

yes but there is a third place for ponies.

 

[Essenar]

Xbox strategy won't work with phones. They would need some kind of Halo product and phones don't work like that. THE Halo of phones was the iPhone. It's what started this madness.

 

[Hastings101]

Honestly, I don't see there being a third contender. I think Android is going to slowly take over the market via cheap vendors in China/India and pricier models from Samsung on the international level while Apple will be cut down to controlling the North American market. Maybe there will be a surprising change but I sure don't think that will come from Microsoft or Blackberry