iPhone 14 Pro Max Why always last minute shipments?

[macfan2023]

I think as far back as 2016 Apple has always been shipping newest iPhones from China literally last minute. Why do they do it? Why not ship all or 70% of it for launch, I'd imagine China already has at least the majority of iPhone already made sitting in a warehouse in China say, 2 months out from the Sep launch. So why not ship it to US somewhere in the 2 months leading up to Sep? Why is it always you order online, and then it has to be shipped from China. So this year I pre-ordered my Pro Max on the pre-order date, probably a few hours late, it was quoting me late Oct to Nov delivery. That's almost 2 months. If they had shipped more phones from China earlier, I probably wouldn't run into that situation, as with many.

So why does Apple always ship iPhones last minute?

High demand? No, CNBC reported yesterday Apple is cutting all further iPhone 14 productions for this year due to low demand (perhaps they're cutting the base models and maybe later they'll increase production for the Pro Max).

Security? No, US is just as safe as China.

Storage? Doubtful, I'm sure they can store all the new iPhones somewhere on Apple Campus and lock it down with like 10 bank safes lol.

Cheaper shipping fees? Maybe, but doubtful. I'd imagine it's the same cost to ship 2 months out than last minute, probably way cheaper, given the chances of lost in transit will probably be less when planned ahead.

Artificially driving up brand value and demand? Maybe, but sure did backfire at least yesterday on their security positions. And negatively affected other publicly traded companies who are either a supplier or have involvement with Apple. In fact with the lower demand article from CNBC yesterday, yea, it backfired. Most Consumers are not willing to wait 1 or 2 months for something they pre-ordered. That's why I would never pre-order a Stingray no matter how appealing it looks. Avg wait for that is 1.5 to 2 years. By the time I get the Stingray, I'm already 2 generations behind.

Related to US China trade issues? Doubtful. As this has been going on for years before the trade issue.

I'm out of ideas. I'm curious to hear yours. But on a slightly good note, hopefully with a bearish market and consumer not happy with the long wait, Apple stocks I hope would target around $100 by January. By then it's basically Apple stocks black friday. Mine shipped on the 27th according to UPS (not sure if it's China time, GMT, or EST). And now it's stuck on see attached image.

At first it had a delivery date of US Central Time Sep 29th, tomorrow (UPS Worldwide Express Saver has a guaranteed of 2 business days delivery, but seems like that SLA is not being upheld now). But now it just says: The delivery date will be provided as soon as possible on UPS side, and on Apple side it says Oct 5th.

 

[russell_314]

Or maybe they’re not in a warehouse in China, but being put together when you order them.

Also, you mentioned the market will not be happy with them but that’s this is not how most people get a phone. I should say most people in the USA because I don’t know how this works in the rest of the world. Most people in the USA go to whatever carrier they use and say hey, I want X phone. The employee goes behind the counter, grabs a box, takes out the phone, sets it up, puts on the screen protector and case then after some paperwork hands it to the customer. There is no shipping or order from Apple or Samsung or whoever.

 

[macfan2023]

Or maybe they’re not in a warehouse in China, but being put together when you order them.

Also, you mentioned the market will not be happy with them but that’s this is not how most people get a phone. I should say most people in the USA because I don’t know how this works in the rest of the world. Most people in the USA go to whatever carrier they use and say hey, I want X phone. The employee goes behind the counter, grabs a box, takes out the phone, sets it up, puts on the screen protector and case then after some paperwork hands it to the customer. There is no shipping or order from Apple or Samsung or whoever.

I see. I've always paid in full foor unlocked phones. But still even if this is the case, someone dropped the ball at Apple since 2016. And I've heard even the carrier phones are empty this year, waiting to be shipped from China.

As for "put together when you order them." - No, companies like Apple and their suppliers and the factory Foxconn in China don't operate this way. It's too costly on a Cost of Operation, to just oh we got 10 orders today, can you put together 10 phones. If anything of build as you go, it would have to be in the scale of 100,000 orders at a time. Foxconn doesn't just make iPhones, they make Samsung phones, they need SLA agreements and production schedules many many months out. They make pretty much every electronic you can think of. Playstation. TVs, monitors, laptops, everything. Bottom line, they are not going to drop Samsung or LG or Sony to make a petty 10 orders as they come in. In my estimate, it would be something like, OK, we got 10 orders in from this store, but overall we got say 5000 orders in today, and with a model, it predicts another 60,000k orders for this month. Apple then calls Foxconn and says, we're placing another order of 100k. Can you deliver in time.

But as I said in my OP, I'm having a hard time believing the brains at Apple would "drop the ball." - There must be a reason why they always ship last minute. I don't believe the build as you go theory is feasible. It just wouldn't make logistical or operation sense.

 

[4sallypat]

Interesting - I felt that most Apple Warehouses will have the devices ahead of launch day.

Don't know why Apple sends customer individual orders from China when a lot were already in country.

Reason: Mac Mini in 2019, iPhone 12 in 2020, and Mac Studio in 2021 - all were delivered by a local Apple warehouse about 15 minutes from me.

They were all ordered online thru Apple.com - Mini and Studio were shipped the day prior via FedEx Ground; iPhone was shipped via UPS ground and arrived on time.

 

[russell_314]

I see. I've always paid in full foor unlocked phones. But still even if this is the case, someone dropped the ball at Apple since 2016. And I've heard even the carrier phones are empty this year, waiting to be shipped from China.

As for "put together when you order them." - No, companies like Apple and their suppliers and the factory Foxconn in China don't operate this way. It's too costly on a Cost of Operation, to just oh we got 10 orders today, can you put together 10 phones. If anything of build as you go, it would have to be in the scale of 100,000 orders at a time. Foxconn doesn't just make iPhones, they make Samsung phones, they need SLA agreements and production schedules many many months out. They make pretty much every electronic you can think of. Playstation. TVs, monitors, laptops, everything. Bottom line, they are not going to drop Samsung or LG or Sony to make a petty 10 orders as they come in. In my estimate, it would be something like, OK, we got 10 orders in from this store, but overall we got say 5000 orders in today, and with a model, it predicts another 60,000k orders for this month. Apple then calls Foxconn and says, we're placing another order of 100k. Can you deliver in time.

Well, I don’t mean specifically that phone, but perhaps they are assembled based on short term order projections without large warehouse is full of them. This way of sales aren’t as good as they expected they’re not stuck with large quantities of a product they can’t sell. I know iPhones are shipped to the Apple Store for launch day orders.

Pretty much every time I ordered an Apple product from Apple it was shipped directly from China. I don’t pretend to know what Tim Cook or all those people at Apple about logistics. There has to be a reason, but I don’t know it.

 

[macfan2023]

Interesting - I felt that most Apple Warehouses will have the devices ahead of launch day.

Don't know why Apple sends customer individual orders from China when a lot were already in country.

Reason: Mac Mini in 2019, iPhone 12 in 2020, and Mac Studio in 2021 - all were delivered by a local Apple warehouse about 15 minutes from me.

They were all ordered online thru Apple.com - Mini and Studio were shipped the day prior via FedEx Ground; iPhone was shipped via UPS ground and arrived on time.

Yea I ordered the new macbook air like 2 days after it came out from best buy and got it the next day via FedEx Overnight. Maybe only iPhones are made in China. Or maybe Macbook has a far less demand and they are able to ship enough supplies to US ahead of time.

 

[russell_314]

Yea I ordered the new macbook air like 2 days after it came out from best buy and got it the next day via FedEx Overnight. Maybe only iPhones are made in China. Or maybe Macbook has a far less demand and they are able to ship enough supplies to US ahead of time.

Did you order it from Apple or Best Buy? I’ve heard people getting Macs from local places, but every time I ordered one it came from China.

 

[macfan2023]

Well, I don’t mean specifically that phone, but perhaps they are assembled based on short term order projections without large warehouse is full of them. This way of sales aren’t as good as they expected they’re not stuck with large quantities of a product they can’t sell. I know iPhones are shipped to the Apple Store for launch day orders.

Pretty much every time I ordered an Apple product from Apple it was shipped directly from China. I don’t pretend to know what Tim Cook or all those people at Apple about logistics. There has to be a reason, but I don’t know it.

iPhones are never stuck with large quantities of any version. What they do in those situations is they either sell it referbished, trade-in, or they actuall deassemble them and use it toward next year's edition, or they claim as a business loss on their tax return, amortization on tax return, or donate to 501c3s and claim donation credit.. Large quantities of iPhone has never been an issue to Apple, if such thing ever existed.

 

[macfan2023]

Did you order it from Apple or Best Buy? I’ve heard people getting Macs from local places, but every time I ordered one it came from China.

Bestbuy. Ordered night before, came the next day.

 

[russell_314]

Bestbuy. Ordered night before, came the next day.

Well yeah that’s Best Buy not Apple. They would have a totally different system. I didn’t know they shipped that fast though. I’ll have to remember that because I usually order from Amazon because every place else takes forever to ship.

 

[macfan2023]

Well yeah that’s Best Buy not Apple. They would have a totally different system. I didn’t know they shipped that fast though. I’ll have to remember that because I usually order from Amazon because every place else takes forever to ship.

I forgot to mention I'm Elite Plus at Best Buy and I purchased it with an Amex Black Centurion card. Don't know if that had to do with anything.

 

[ArchEtech]

Best Buy MIGHT ship that fast. They have the same issue as apple right now. I ended up canceling an order from Apple and Best buy because of changes and delays, and just walked into a store to get my Ultra.

My 14 pro I preordered at launch l and it arrived on launch day.

 

[macfan2023]

Best Buy MIGHT ship that fast. They have the same issue as apple right now. I ended up canceling an order from Apple and Best buy because of changes and delays, and just walked into a store to get my Ultra.

My 14 pro I preordered at launch l and it arrived on launch day.

OK keep in mind we're talking about the new Macbook Air, not the iPhone in regards to best buy. I'm still waiting for my iphone 14 pro max form china.

 

[Unami]

They usually wouldn't need 2 months to ship it from china (with maybe this years general shipping delays being an exception), so if you ordered a few hours late and got 2 months delayed, then your phone wasn't manufactured yet and the manufactured ones were already sold out. It would be the same if they shipped 70% to your country first. That doesn't contradict weaker demand as usually. I guess the real question is why they don't start to manufacture them earlier before orders start, but this will probably actually be about storage costs.

 

[AppleB]

I saw a video on this a while back.

I ordered a M1 Mac Mini in February of 2021. The base model was 8 Ram and 256 SSD I believe.
I ordered 16 Ram 1TB SSD and it shipped from China.

It’s called Just in Time Manufacturing.

Instead making several hundreds of thousands or millions of differently configured products and keeping them in a warehouse in the states. It’s cheaper to make it when it’s ordered in China and send it.

I assume that carriers and Apple brick and mortar stores get their allotments of all configurations but possibly not. I don’t know.

But I guess this is why preorder day is a week before delivery day and if you order several hours after preorders go live you get pushed way to the back of the line. Sometimes you can get it earlier based on demand I would guess.

Things like AirTags and AirPods in ear are probably kept in the states unless in the case of the AirPods and you get a engraving it’s going to ship from China.

 

[Klae17]

Look up Just in Time production.

No one has dropped any balls, they are logistical geniuses. that doesn't mean they can solve all problems. It means they can solve a problem very well 200 million times a year.

 

[Jumpthesnark]

Look up Just in Time production.

No one has dropped any balls, they are logistical geniuses. that doesn't mean they can solve all problems. It means they can solve a problem very well 200 million times a year.

Yep. JIT is why "supply chain issues" have affected us so much, across so many products. Because right down to toilet paper, everything is based on shipping & delivery now, and not producing a massive number of things, and then storing them for long times in warehouses.

Industries have altered their logistics to cut back on waste and storage, which means more of that just in time production & shipping.

 

[macfan2023]

Look up Just in Time production.

No one has dropped any balls, they are logistical geniuses. that doesn't mean they can solve all problems. It means they can solve a problem very well 200 million times a year.

I don't think they are logistical geniuses. Although they may trademark genius bar. Amazon is logistical genius.

 

[macfan2023]

Yep. JIT is why "supply chain issues" have affected us so much, across so many products. Because right down to toilet paper, everything is based on shipping & delivery now, and not producing a massive number of things, and then storing them for long times in warehouses.

Industries have altered their logistics to cut back on waste and storage, which means more of that just in time production & shipping.

So that means JIT doesn't work. Maybe for small operations and close proximity between warehhouse and customer address. But not for iPhones.

 

[Jumpthesnark]

So that means JIT doesn't work. Maybe for small operations and close proximity between warehhouse and customer address. But not for iPhones.

JIT is a big improvement over slow shipping and local warehousing of a mass number of products way ahead of time. No one wants the latest iPhone to sit in a warehouse where it may be closer to customers than the factory is, but it could have been shipped directly to consumers weeks or months earlier.

If JIT didn't work, they wouldn't do it. Phone prices would likely be even higher if we were paying for things to be shipped twice and also warehoused. Paying for multiple warehouses in order to have to have "close proximity between warehouse and customer address" across multiple countries, since Apple is a worldwide operation. All the people to staff them. All the truck drivers, shipping departments and delivery people.

JIT also works because they waste fewer products. They have a better idea of which models customers are buying in real time, rather than building a bunch of wrong size, wrong color, wrong storage that are sitting around not being ordered.

I don't know about you, but I'd rather have a brand new iPhone when it's still brand new, rather than having Apple take the approach that "it's the same cost to ship 2 months out than last minute, probably way cheaper." Because then we'd be complaining that Apple has made a new phone but they put them on the slow boat and then had them sitting in warehouses.

 

[deeddawg]

Cheaper shipping fees? Maybe, but doubtful. I'd imagine it's the same cost to ship 2 months out than last minute, probably way cheaper, given the chances of lost in transit will probably be less when planned ahead.

It is usually less expensive to ship something once rather than twice.

 

[macfan2023]

It is usually less expensive to ship something once rather than twice.

Exactly... that's why i don't get the whole JIT thing people rave about. What, you make the iphone in china just when the order comes in? And charter a UPS plane to deliver just my iphone? Maybe a few others or maybe a whole lot others. That's still more expensive than just ship them all back in July or whenever their production is done. Instead of shipping them on the week of release date...

 

[deeddawg]

Exactly... that's why i don't get the whole JIT thing people rave about. What, you make the iphone in china just when the order comes in? And charter a UPS plane to deliver just my iphone? Maybe a few others or maybe a whole lot others. That's still more expensive than just ship them all back in July or whenever their production is done. Instead of shipping them on the week of release date...

When you load a plane with ~200,000 phones the cost-per-unit becomes a whole lot less.

That was in 2014, when the boxes were larger. I'd imagine they fit even more into each aircraft these days.

This Is A Plane Loaded With 195,000 New iPhones

This Is A Plane Loaded With 195,000 New iPhones

www.huffpost.com