I agree. I got the feeling that Microsoft initially sat on their duff thinking that tablets were going to be as short-lived as netbooks, but when that didn't happen, they scrambled to cobble together Windows 8. Hopefully Windows 10 will be a better fit for notebooks, tablets, and hybrids. The lack of quantity of quality touch-optimized apps will continue to plague Windows tablets. Maybe Win10's Continuum will help bridge that gap.
As for Google and Apple, there is an arrogance about them that is reminiscent of Microsoft back-in-the-day.
I guess I kind of viewed things differently from everyone else. I saw Windows 8 as an attempt by Microsoft to move to an operating system that would scale across different devices and allow the user to access their data stored in the cloud from any screen size they chose.
It looked to me that Microsoft's hubris got in the way and they screwed it up. They thought they could be Steve Jobs and tell people what they wanted, but it backfired on them big time.
Based on the fact that Microsoft is giving away Windows 10 to anyone currently using Windows 7 or 8, this leads me to believe that Microsoft finally has developed some humility.
I'm very interested to see the Surface Pro 4 running Windows 10. I think this will be a bellweather for Microsoft.
It seemed to me that it took Microsoft several attempts to figure out what the Surface should be. First they marketed it as a competitor to the iPad which failed miserably. I think they finally decided that the Surface represents the evolution of the personal computer from "ultrabook" to "tablet PC".
To the OP, I think Windows 10 will be very telling for Microsoft. If people are impressed with Windows 10, I believe that they will be willing to give Windows Phone a chance.
I think Microsoft realizes that it will lose if it tries to go head to head with Apple's iPhone and the high end Android devices. It seems to be focusing on mid-tier and lower-tier devices. I think that (in the U.S. at least) this will play well for Microsoft as the carriers are attempting to move away from the contract subsidy model.
If people have faith in Windows 10 and decide that they don't feel like paying US$650 or more for a smartphone, they may be willing to give Windows Phone a chance.