If today’s 8GB machines are going to have 5-6 years of good operating system support (maybe M_ pro machines will have longer support because of the minimum 16BG of RAM), then we won’t see groundbreaking improvements on the operating system until 5 years down the road, when Apple will start taking advantage of the increased base memory. And by then, 12GB will feel just “enough“ for basic tasks just like today’s 8GB of RAM.
I don't think that one thing follows from the other.
Aside from the fact that Apple can and will undoubtedly have plans to extend the feature set of macOS, and can hardly suppress these developments in such a way, all they have to do is build in more flexibility in macOS modularity. That would allow unused modules to be unspotted from active memory so that other modules can be slotted in their place.
And even that assumes that they won't do something such as unload some of the embedded software overhead we see in use today.
The thing that strikes me as quite pivotal in this is the fact that Apple do, obviously have a roadmap for where macOS is, principally at least, going. Yet they still build 8GB base models today, when bumping that to 12GB would incur hardly any notable cost difference. They are not a willfully stupid company, so it can really only be that their plans include macOS developments in the context of an existing and continuing 8GB base level of RAM. Realistically, they can't avoid that.
Dear Hoffman,
apple may not like to sell a Mac which doesn’t break in 10 years …
8Gb RAM exactly does that.
the OSX system may use 4-6 Gb RAM leaving little space for user application.
once your applications need More Ram, it moves to SWAP file. This degrades the SSD much faster …
the more u use, the more you age it.
since replacing the SSD on a Mac is a nightmare, you are given an option to upgrade or repair the old one up to 70-80% sometimes 100 % of the cost of a new one.
Plenty of discussion here already about macOS RAM use, so there's no point in rehearsing those arguments you can read for yourself if you're interested.
But 'wearing out of the SSD due to swap use' is old hat and largely proven untrue. Firstly, SSDs have been in use for several years in computers now, and where are the failures? Secondly, engineering studies have shown SSDs are more reliable, by a factor of as much as 10x in comparison to hard drives (which also didn't much fail due to swap use), thirdly, SSDs are in common use in server environments where swap levels are often very high, but don't cause problems, and would hardly even be in use in such systems if there was such an inherent failure looming, and fourthly, life expectancy of SSDs is in the petabytes - meaning that for most use cases, an SSD will outlast the rest of the system.
One factor that does matter is SSD capacity. Studies do show that the smaller the capacity, the faster it will fail - thought still in the region of around a petabyte for current 256GB SSDs.