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tripleintegral

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Aug 4, 2020
10
1
Hi everyone
Will the next releases of AS mac mini prices get down to the 500-ish $ as it was a few years ago ?
I personally doubt that a such thing could happen soon, but would like to see a such move that will bring life back to this great machine.
Thank you!
 

eric89074

macrumors 6502
Sep 19, 2012
292
570
At best I think the price will drop $100 to $699 for entry level with 256gb ssd and 8gb of ram. $649 if apple is feeling really generous.
 

vigilant

macrumors 6502a
Aug 7, 2007
715
288
Nashville, TN
Hi everyone
Will the next releases of AS mac mini prices get down to the 500-ish $ as it was a few years ago ?
I personally doubt that a such thing could happen soon, but would like to see a such move that will bring life back to this great machine.
Thank you!

Apple will always be a premium product company.

Not saying it’s good or bad.

My wife’s new work laptop is about as loud as a teenager with insecurities new “amped up” mustang.

Arguably, they maybe less, but time will tell.
 

nothingtoseehere

macrumors 6502
Jun 3, 2020
455
522
Will the next releases of AS mac mini prices get down to the 500-ish $ as it was a few years ago ?

:apple: could think of building a rather cheap Mac mini and a more expensive Mac mini Pro. OK, they never did until now, but the idea is not that far-fetched. In fact, the current Mini goes into a pro-ish direction, unlike some entry-level former models. People complain when it's too expensive and also when it lacks power...

The Pro and != Pro roster is, in general, well introduced...

MM in silver, MMP in space grey, to begin with the really important things ;)

Will it happen? I don't think so, nevertheless.
 
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Kostask

macrumors regular
Jul 4, 2020
230
104
Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Apple used to make a Mac Mini, and a Mac Mini server version. The Mac Mini Pro you are referring to above, could easily fit the definition of a Mac Mini server version. That would free the Mac Mini to move down to using the MB/MBAir SoC (possibly using passive cooling only) at a lower price, and the Mac Mini server to use the Midrange SoC with active cooling and a higher price. Maybe the Mac Mini at $599, and the Mac Mini server for $899-$999?
 

nothingtoseehere

macrumors 6502
Jun 3, 2020
455
522
Apple used to make a Mac Mini, and a Mac Mini server version. The Mac Mini Pro you are referring to above, could easily fit the definition of a Mac Mini server version. That would free the Mac Mini to move down to using the MB/MBAir SoC (possibly using passive cooling only) at a lower price, and the Mac Mini server to use the Midrange SoC with active cooling and a higher price. Maybe the Mac Mini at $599, and the Mac Mini server for $899-$999?

Good point!

I would appreciate that 👍
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
4,053
Hi everyone
Will the next releases of AS mac mini prices get down to the 500-ish $ as it was a few years ago ?

The primary driver of the Mini going to much more expensive price points is two factors.

i. Apple got rid of SATA harddisk drives (HDDs) and added higher base level RAM capacity.

ii. Apple's standard pricing on RAM and SSD capacity.


Neither one of those has anything to do with the CPU ( or CPU costs. ). So Apple switching to Apple Silicon (AS) is not going to change the principle drivers of the price increase. Not sure why folks would expect major changes if nothing that counts changes.
.

There is a decent chance that the AS SoC will be incrementally cheaper than the Intel on. ( Apple will still be placing their own mark up on top. The AS will sell in relatively vastly lower volumes than Intel's CPU . So increment isn't likely to be humongous. ). Some folks point at that and push the notion that the Mini "has to get" cheaper.

Not really. The entry Mini also comes with relatively impoverished storage compacity relative to main stream desktops. ( it is faster storage than many but much, much smaller; 256GB ). Apple charges about $400/TB for SSD capacity ( or about $100/250GB ). Merely bumping the Mini to start at 512 or 768 GB would add $100-200 in the Apple ecosystem standard pricing. That is enough to likely wipe out any incremental drop in CPU SoC pricing. And if the SSD increase didn't wipe it out then RAM or WiFi6 or TouchID button or some other higher bill of material cost hardware would.

Apple isn't likely to move on RAM/SSD pricing. At best the Mini will pick up custom NAND daughterboard ( apple's "SSD modules" that are really modules of a SSD; subcomponents of a SSD).
So SATA or M.2 PCI-e or any commodity replacement storage drive is probably gone for good. Apple probably should keep so-DIMMs ( Mini doesn't have z-height tight constraints.), but won't move entry level pricing much.



I personally doubt that a such thing could happen soon, but would like to see a such move that will bring life back to this great machine.

Raising the low end storage capacity back would substantively help the Mini. Even more so if the SSD's NAND modules are soldered to the board as on the 2018 Mini. Users on tight budgets fills the SSD to 85-98% capacity and "driving it hard" with file churn for years probably will lead to more failures. The more users with reasonable "free space" percentages that better file system and underlying SSD device will behave long term.


If "bring life back" is suppose to be targeting the old "inexpensive box for switchers" then the AS Mini is going to have substantive problems on multiple fronts besides just price. The default security , limited end user upgrades , and lack of native Windows boot support (to wean users off of Windows) will be 'dual edge sword' issues that the AS brings as much as there is some presumption of bringing back "inexpensive".


If Apple ever got pressed for cranking up volume sales then on the 2nd or 3rd iteration of AS then perhaps they could toss out a kneecapped Mini with 1-2 generation back SoC and chopped down ports and specs . ( an 'iPad' versus 'iPad Air' or like the "edu. , non-retina iMac versus iMac 21-27" models. ) But if the rest of the Mac line up sells "good enough" (for Apple), then they are not likely to get into the "pressed for volume" state.
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
4,053
Apple used to make a Mac Mini, and a Mac Mini server version.

One of the principle reasons the Mac Mini server came into existence was that Apple got rid of the Optical drive. So they swapped in a more expensive HDD for an ODD and hit a higher price point.
There was also some increased utility for availability/uptime for having a RAiD-1 mirror drive system. But the internal space was already there and Apple used it for something else. ( instead of a smaller Mini system volume. ).

There was some other contributing factors as the XServe ( and later modular Mac Pro) disappearing, MacOS Server dropping in price, but that push this also, but the ODD to HDD swap was the major one.

The Mac Mini Pro you are referring to above, could easily fit the definition of a Mac Mini server version.

The Mini being used as a small scale cloud serve component is one reason why the Mini hasn't changed in size. ( There are development/deployment services businesses that collectively by thousands of Minis. ) .



That would free the Mac Mini to move down to using the MB/MBAir SoC (possibly using passive cooling only) at a lower price, and the Mac Mini server to use the Midrange SoC with active cooling and a higher price. Maybe the Mac Mini at $599, and the Mac Mini server for $899-$999?

Attaching the Mini to the MB/MBA is likely to also solder down the RAM along with the SSD NAND chips. Are most of the folks in the "can't spend more than $599" zone going to be OK with fixed forever storage and RAM capacities ? At $400/TB SSD pricing, Apple will substantively narrow the SSD capacity to hit some small percentage of a $599 price point. Same with RAM.


Similarly, if Apple builds their mobile SoC to match the port selection on their mobiles the port count on the Mini could be strapped with the same constraints . Folks going to be happy with just a max of 4 Thunderbolt ports? ( versus 6 USB+TB ports now).

Taking the specialized laptop SoC will likely bring laptop constraits to the this desktop product.
There are probably 'dual edge" here rather than just "cheaper" ( due to smaller die and higher volume sales. ) Getting to "cheaper" means Apple is also highly remove stuff to get to that lower price point.
 

nothingtoseehere

macrumors 6502
Jun 3, 2020
455
522
The primary driver of the Mini going to much more expensive price points is two factors.

Thank you for this very precise analysis! All is very cogently argued - which incites me to find a leverage point :) How about this:

If Apple ever got pressed for cranking up volume sales

Couldn't one think that the introduction of Apple Silicon indeed presses Apple to crank up sales? To get a broader ASi user base as quickly as possible? And wouldn't in this case a rather cheap Mac mini, along with a new MBA, be the best way to get there?

(No idea if :apple: thinks this way but iPhone SE 2020 at least doesn't falsify that concept.)
 
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Boil

macrumors 68040
Oct 23, 2018
3,477
3,173
Stargate Command
Couldn't one think that the introduction of Apple Silicon indeed presses Apple to crank up sales? To get a broader ASi user base as quickly as possible? And wouldn't in this case a rather cheap Mac mini, along with a new MBA, be the best way to get there?

I am thinking/hoping Apple will release three Apple silicon Macs before the end of 2020, something to get the market going, get units out in the wild & in use by a broad cross-range of users. Three Mac models on the lower end of the line-up would do this nicely:

Mac mini
14" MacBook
24" iMac

I guess we will learn more come September/October...?
 

Kostask

macrumors regular
Jul 4, 2020
230
104
Calgary, Alberta, Canada
it has been reported by more than 1 reliable leaker (Ming Chi Kuo being within that group) that the first AS Mac to be released will the small MacBook Pro. whether that is a 14" or 13" remains to be seen, but it will NOT be the MacBook or MacBook Air, in either screen size. Nobody has categorically said whether it will be the sole AS Mac released or not.

I take issue with your pricing scenario. The Intel CPUs are $200 or higher, with perhaps another $50 or so for the Intel chipset. The Apple SoC will substantially, not incrementally, cost less than that, and the potential cost reduction from things being incorporated into the SoC (as in the T2 chip), and the cost reduction possible by putting 16GB RAM on SoC, will result in a substantial cost reduciton for the entire Mac Mini. The RAM WILL NOT BE USER EXPANDABLE, and the SSD will be soldered in. And it will be 16GB of RAM and 512GB of SSD. Even given all of that, I see it as entirely possible that a $699 price point can be reached. If end users want more, I am sure, like I have said elsewhere for the MacBook/MacBook Air, that there will be a 32GB RAM BTO option for those who want it. It may result in a smaller (as in vertically shorter) AS Mac Mini. The remaining hardware is not as much of a consideration. I don't see a WiFi6 chip being $100 more than a Wifi 5 chip. As for the on board SSD not being enough, or not being a standard M.2 NVME drive, that's what TB4 ports are for, and I think there will be 4 of them.

You don't see a Mac Mini server version as being necessary. Note that the majority of Mac Minis being sold are being used in that way. The people buying those Mac Mini servers today will not balk at an AS Mac Mini server version costing $899, because that is what they cost today, or even $999, as long as they see the value in it. This AS Mac Mini must use the same form factor as today's Mac Mini, to maintain mechanical compatibllity with existing rack hardware.
 
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Manzanito

macrumors 65816
Apr 9, 2010
1,189
1,953
I don’t see this apple passing the savings on to the consumers, they are more likely to increase their margins.
 

matram

macrumors 6502a
Sep 18, 2011
781
416
Sweden
it has been reported by more than 1 reliable leaker (Ming Chi Kuo being within that group) that the first AS Mac to be released will the small MacBook Pro. whether that is a 14" or 13" remains to be seen, but it will NOT be the MacBook or MacBook Air, in either screen size. Nobody has categorically said whether it will be the sole AS Mac released or not.

I take issue with your pricing scenario. The Intel CPUs are $200 or higher, with perhaps another $50 or so for the Intel chipset. The Apple SoC will substantially, not incrementally, cost less than that, and the potential cost reduction from things being incorporated into the SoC (as in the T2 chip), and the cost reduction possible by putting 16GB RAM on SoC, will result in a substantial cost reduciton for the entire Mac Mini. The RAM WILL NOT BE USER EXPANDABLE, and the SSD will be soldered in. And it will be 16GB of RAM and 512GB of SSD. Even given all of that, I see it as entirely possible that a $699 price point can be reached. If end users want more, I am sure, like I have said elsewhere for the MacBook/MacBook Air, that there will be a 32GB RAM BTO option for those who want it. It may result in a smaller (as in vertically shorter) AS Mac Mini. The remaining hardware is not as much of a consideration. I don't see a WiFi6 chip being $100 more than a Wifi 5 chip. As for the on board SSD not being enough, or not being a standard M.2 NVME drive, that's what TB4 ports are for, and I think there will be 4 of them.

You don't see a Mac Mini server version as being necessary. Note that the majority of Mac Minis being sold are being used in that way. The people buying those Mac Mini servers today will not balk at an AS Mac Mini server version costing $899, because that is what they cost today, or even $999, as long as they see the value in it. This AS Mac Mini must use the same form factor as today's Mac Mini, to maintain mechanical compatibllity with existing rack hardware.

I think you are correct in you assumptions on BOM cost.

I don’t see this apple passing the savings on to the consumers, they are more likely to increase their margins.

Apple has over the years had a very consistent gross profit margin. But they do not want to compete on price so I believe they will use part of the savings on the BOM to give the user a better specification and only lower prices slightly. The most obvious is that want a MBP under 1000 USD. That may be the reference from which they price the mini.
 

Codeseven

macrumors 6502a
Dec 31, 2008
849
344
I’d say, sure. Given the tremendous success of the new cheaper/entry level iPhone SE, Apple has a proven example of how successful it is to offer a cheaper alternative. In that respect, I can easily see a cheaper low spec entry level Mac Mini and an optional more expensive high spec Mini Pro.
 

Boyd01

Moderator
Staff member
Feb 21, 2012
7,948
4,883
New Jersey Pine Barrens
2014 all over again? Apple dropped the price of the entry level Mini by $50, used an under-powered 1.4ghz i5 and soldered in 4gb RAM. That was not well-received. 😂
 

Kostask

macrumors regular
Jul 4, 2020
230
104
Calgary, Alberta, Canada
That has as much to do with Intel, and the CPUs they had avaialble (and the pricing for them) as it did with Apple.

The AS SoC that will be used in the MB/MBAir is the entry level version of the SoC. It will be the highest volume SoC, and the lowest power dissipation. In that sense, it is much like the i5 of 2014. However, it will perform at least 25% better than the current spec top i7, and will NOT need active cooling, not ot mention it will greatly simplify the logic board, both in design and manufacture (because so much of what is on the logic board is inside the SoC). The low power dissipation will allow for passive cooling, and possibly a lower profile case.

I have no doubt that the new low end AS Mac will perform far beyond what it required for a good user experience, and I also think it will come in at closer to $699 vs. the current $899 price.
 
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Yebubbleman

macrumors 603
May 20, 2010
6,024
2,616
Los Angeles, CA
Hi everyone
Will the next releases of AS mac mini prices get down to the 500-ish $ as it was a few years ago ?
I personally doubt that a such thing could happen soon, but would like to see a such move that will bring life back to this great machine.
Thank you!


I'm not sure that I'd bank on it, but you'd never know. Frankly, I might be more worried about the Mac mini's future seeing as it hasn't shown up on any Apple Silicon Mac rumors lately
 

thenewperson

macrumors 6502a
Mar 27, 2011
992
912
I'm not sure that I'd bank on it, but you'd never know. Frankly, I might be more worried about the Mac mini's future seeing as it hasn't shown up on any Apple Silicon Mac rumors lately

The Mac mini was a bit late last transition wasn't it? Anyway, it seems Apple is going for their most popular products first, which makes sense. Then the bigger performers in the (maybe 14" and) 16" MPB and whatever replaces the 27" iMac. Then maybe the mini and then finally the Mac Pro. Takes care of their most-selling, then finishes with the outliers.
 

Yebubbleman

macrumors 603
May 20, 2010
6,024
2,616
Los Angeles, CA
The Mac mini was a bit late last transition wasn't it? Anyway, it seems Apple is going for their most popular products first, which makes sense. Then the bigger performers in the (maybe 14" and) 16" MPB and whatever replaces the 27" iMac. Then maybe the mini and then finally the Mac Pro. Takes care of their most-selling, then finishes with the outliers.

Nah, the Mac mini was the third Mac transitioned last time (the first two, both sizes of iMac and the 15" MacBook Pro were first and announced at the same event; the Intel mini was two months later).

It makes sense for Apple to transition all of the lower-end Macs soonest (as they won't have to work very hard to get the performance to best the Intel chips in those machines; most of which are still 8th Gen Intel Core i); the Mac mini would be ripe for an Apple Silicon upgrade almost immediately from the standpoint of beating the performance of the current model. From a marketing standpoint, yes, they do often let the mini languish without updates. But, seeing as they have goals to pump out Apple Silicon replacements to every existing Intel Mac in two years, they really can't wait that long. Then again, as will be the case with whatever ends up replacing the MacBook Air and 13" MacBook Pro, it's not like we're forced into crappy Intel integrated graphics; the Mac mini could become a more viable machine for higher-end use cases than it ever was during the Intel era...assuming it survives the transition...
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
4,053
...
Couldn't one think that the introduction of Apple Silicon indeed presses Apple to crank up sales?

Pressed to crank up sales of the Mini ? No.

Apple Silicon (AS) large differentiating wins are primarily going to come in the space of battery power systems. Is Apple likely to sell a couple million more laptops? Yes. Does that increase ( press) Apple to expand the Mac Mini sales to make up for lost sales volume. Absolutely not.

If Apple increases overall Mac sales units volume with the AS intro to the product line then there won't be "pressed" at all. When folks are buying there is less pressure; not more.

To get a broader ASi user base as quickly as possible?

Which is mostly laptops. The Mac product unit skew now is well over 65% laptops. If Apple doesn't make a rapid laptop transition then they are in very bad shape. But if they do make a transition that cranks up the laptop volume.... then the quirky in a corner Mini product doesn't matter much as it did before in 2005-7 .

If Mini's represented 45-70% of all desktop sales Apple might be "pressed" to do something about lowering the cost of a Mini. The iMac is the primary desktop volume driver. If Apple screws that system up then there is a substantive problem with the transition ( mostly in the second "half" of the period).

The Mini's were introduced in 2005 in part to stop gap the "decline" of desktops.

mac-portables-increase-share.jpg



The folks at Apple in charge of strategy at Apple are not jumping out of bed every morning thinking cranking desktops unit sales to the highest levels possible is "job number one" . That graph ends in 2012. It is probably even more skewed now. AS will likely just reinforce the same trend lines as before.

The Mini has gone comatose between 2011 - 2014 and 2014 - 2018. In part because it is not a substantively "move the needle" for the overall Mac product line in terms of units or revenue. It has always been a small gap filler.



And wouldn't in this case a rather cheap Mac mini, along with a new MBA, be the best way to get there?

A cheaper MBA would be more effective.



(No idea if :apple: thinks this way but iPhone SE 2020 at least doesn't falsify that concept.)

Apple needed the SE 2020 to do better penetration into a broader set of worldwide economies. Apple had priced themselves out of places like India and select countries that still have room for substantive market expansion to smarter-phones. Apple got lucky in that folks dropping out of highest priced smartphones also dropped in "first world" economies with the pandemic. Couple that with the rise in quality of mid-range phones from multiple players ( Motorola G, OnePlus , Google Pixel mid 'a' variants (picking up where Nexus used to have leverage ) , Samsung , Hwawei , Xiaomi, etc. )

The SE 2020 is just Apple incrementally moving off the notion that selling a 3 year old phone was OK at $300-500 price levels. Apple's phone strategy has mainly been sell last year's phone cheaper and sell last, last year's cheaper still with even older stuff in it. The 2020 model at least puts a modern A-series SoC in the model.

The iPhones is bad because Apple has pushed the starting point of the iPhones much higher. Now the "bargain year old" phone is close to where the 3rd-4th generation "leading edge" iPhones used to sell at. The price creep there has been relatively way larger than the Mini price creep increase.
Is the Mini (with everything soldered down ) going to be a "great" computer in developing countries? Probably not as much as the "box with slots and low cost technician repair" is bigger chasm there for Apple to cross.
 
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jerryk

macrumors 604
Nov 3, 2011
7,421
4,208
SF Bay Area
Hi everyone
Will the next releases of AS mac mini prices get down to the 500-ish $ as it was a few years ago ?
I personally doubt that a such thing could happen soon, but would like to see a such move that will bring life back to this great machine.
Thank you!

That would be nice. I would love to have an AS mac mini alongside my Windows/Linux box as a desktop. I would use it to test porting some apps I have written for my own use and catch up on developing on MacOS. Most of my knowledge in that area is 8+ years old.
 
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