I'm currently debating on whether I'd rather get a refurbished specced out MBP, or get a specced out MBP if it gets released this month. I'm leaning towards getting a refurbished, but wondering if the prices will go down once a new model comes out.
My hunch (and I have zero data to back this up, except for all the times I've fixated on the refurb store because I wanted a new Mac) is that when a new one comes out they start building up a supply of refurbished ones as people trade in their previous ones and they refurbish them. Then, I think the prices start to drop as inventory backs up.
if you live near a microcenter, they already on heavy discount, 1200 off 64gb m1 max 14inch i picked up yesterday for a friend for only 2500, i have almost the same unit but paid 4200 back in july.
Agree with @ilikewhey, the 2021 MBP isn't something at this point I think an Apple refurb makes the most sense on, as you can basically get them brand-new at a similar discounted price. Especially for higher-spec'd models, those tend to take the biggest depreciation hit (%-wise) as the model gets older / approaches a spec-bump-refresh, so I would look around. Take a look at places like BH Photo / Video (https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/buy/macbook-pro/ci/29069/N/3709772171) which is a well-known reputable Apple retailer that's known for having good discounts. They've got a lot of the higher-spec'd models at solid discounts right now.