Windows Phone to overtake iOS by 2015

[Stella]

article link:

http://www.reghardware.com/2012/01/20/microsoft_windows_phone_to_overtake_apple_ios_in_2015/

This should hopefully make for an interesting discussion! :-d

 

[McGiord]

We will see.

The war for market share will get interesting for us the consumers, good competition will make them innovate and lower prices.

iOS is not only for the iPhone, so taking into account all the iPods and iPads that number will be something else.

As for phones we will see what happens, as the carriers play a major role in the market.

 

[*LTD*]

And Apple maintains development of their products into 2015, possibly (likely) shaking up other areas of the industry.

Samsung continues their drive on the Android front.

Meanwhile WP7 sales are close to nothing, and have been that for over year. The only way MS will make a substantial mark in this segment is if Google/Android becomes mired in litigation, licensing fees, and OEMs start getting fed up.

Otherwise, Google has already taken the position of universal licensor, and no one but Apple will take away share from Apple.

Nokia has no cachet anymore. That brand is DONE.

This is the beginning of the end for the ill-conceived MS-Nokia partnership. Look for rumblings of a "reset" or some similar euphemism a year from now.

MS might not mind sticking around at 1-2% for an indeterminate amount of time. But will the returns be worth the costs? Probably not. Apple is able to operate and flourish on high margins. Others are not, and they don't.

 

[AppleScruff1]

And Apple maintains development of their products into 2015, possibly (likely) shaking up other areas of the industry.

Samsung continues their drive on the Android front.

Meanwhile WP7 sales are close to nothing, and have been that for over year. The only way MS will make a substantial mark in this segment is if Google/Android becomes mired in litigation, licensing fees, and OEMs start getting fed up.

Otherwise, Google has already taken the position of universal licensor, and no one but Apple will take away share from Apple.

Nokia has no cachet anymore. That brand is DONE.

This is the beginning of the end for the ill-conceived MS-Nokia partnership. Look for rumblings of a "reset" or some similar euphemism a year from now.

MS might not mind sticking around at 1-2% for an indeterminate amount of time. But will the returns be worth the costs? Probably not. Apple is able to operate and flourish on high margins. Others are not, and they don't.

Getting scared already? Relax.

 

[Rodimus Prime]

I could of called it happen. Long term iOS is going to fall to 3rd place. Simple fact is iOS is tied to one device so it causes a lot more compromises for people in choosing compared to the other 2 major choices. Top it off MS already made it petty clear they are in this for the long haul and not going to give it up so they will put the money into it. People though the Xbox project was stupid but MS put the money into it and they saw something long term. 10 years down the road from when they started it the 360 is the best selling set top box and the center around connecting the PC with the TV. It works really well and it keeps on growing. MS did that right.

It already quickly reaching a point that all the major apps that people want are on all platforms and tend to come out on all platforms. Heck of the 3 OS I find the sdk software for Windows Phone7 to be by far the best and easiest to work with.

 

[blazerdude20]

As someone who uses WP7 daily they have many issues to resolve.

The live tiles are really nice and IE is faster than safari... but... IE doesnt have back/forward buttons and it has issues rendering some pages. The mail setup also doesn't automatically download pictures in html emails. The response of key presses is also an issue.

These aren't huge issues per say but this is just the tip of the iceberg. Hopefully 8 will fix all the little nagging issues. Its a great platform if they fix the issues.

 

[danahn17]

I dunno... There's a lot of big assumptions being thrown about in that article / analysis. I'm sure Microsoft will gain market share but just how much remains to be seen. We'll see...2015 is still three years away and anything can happen during those three years.

 

[Peace]

Who cares. All Steve Jobs hoped for was 2%.

 

[malman89]

Nokia has no cachet anymore. That brand is DONE.

This is the beginning of the end for the ill-conceived MS-Nokia partnership. Look for rumblings of a "reset" or some similar euphemism a year from now.

MS might not mind sticking around at 1-2% for an indeterminate amount of time. But will the returns be worth the costs? Probably not. Apple is able to operate and flourish on high margins. Others are not, and they don't.

Nokia's new hardware looks phenomenal. I would hop on a Lumina 800/900 (whatever the US N9 equivalent will be) immediately if I didn't want to ditch my carrier.

Also, MS has devoted too much time and effort into WP to bail on it. It certainly helps they keep settling on royalty agreements with manufacturers. Doesn't hurt that MS quarterly profits were higher than Apple's either.

----------------------------------------

With that being said, I've read plenty of unbiased reviews ('power' Android users and iOS users) who have extensively tried out WP7/7.5 and especially with 7.5 have really positive things to say.

The MS licensing fee + WP hardware spec requirements weren't much of an incentive for many manufacturers to a 3rd OS that came late to the game, but that has been changing.

What MS really needs is knowledgeable carrier staff in the stores that sell their products. I doubt when a clueless customer comes in that WP gets as much of nod as Android or iOS. They also need more apps - wait one moment, please - the good ones, at least. You don't need hundreds of thousands of apps when there's thousand of duplicates and generally a top 50/100/whatever very small number that people pick 98% of their apps from. They just need the major players missing to get on board - Pandora, Spotify, whatever else is missing.

 

[neiltc13]

Nokia's new hardware looks phenomenal. I would hop on a Lumina 800/900 (whatever the US N9 equivalent will be) immediately if I didn't want to ditch my carrier.

USA is the only country where I see people so attached to one carrier. Is it because there are vast areas where some carriers have no coverage?

In most other developed countries all of the carriers have very good coverage across the whole country. Here in the UK there are 5 main carriers and all of them cover pretty much the whole country and it is very rare to see carriers having "exclusive" phones.

What MS really needs is knowledgeable carrier staff in the stores that sell their products. I doubt when a clueless customer comes in that WP gets as much of nod as Android or iOS. They also need more apps - wait one moment, please - the good ones, at least. You don't need hundreds of thousands of apps when there's thousand of duplicates and generally a top 50/100/whatever very small number that people pick 98% of their apps from. They just need the major players missing to get on board - Pandora, Spotify, whatever else is missing.

Spotify was released a few weeks ago.

 

[maflynn]

A single manufacturer producing a single phone (or two) cannot compete with multiple manufacturers producing multiple phones. Its a numbers game and its only a matter of time.

WP7 got off to a rocky start but may be starting to gain traction. Apps are increasing quite rapidly and with Nokia going all in with wp7 phones. New designs instead of rehashed android phones loaded with wP7

 

[kdarling]

USA is the only country where I see people so attached to one carrier. Is it because there are vast areas where some carriers have no coverage?

It's a combination of a lot of factors.

In some cases it's coverage. Verizon is well known for its rural 3G coverage, whereas ATT concentrates on high speeds in more lucrative highly populated areas. There are also entire states (especially north central) which are rugged and sparsely populated and therefore have few choices if any.

(Ownership of towers can be a factor. When the iPhone first came out, AT&T didn't have home coverage in 1/4 of the fifty states, and residents of those places could not even buy an iPhone for years because they'd be roaming all the time.)

In some cases it's quality, such as in skyscraper filled cities which need certain bands to penetrate buildings.

In some cases it's because of discounts. Every carrier has discount agreements with certain corporations, groups, military, and so forth. For example, if you get a 20% or 25% discount on voice and data, then that's major savings.

Many people also often cite a good or bad experience with customer service as a major deciding factor.

People also tend to stick with a carrier because of the two year contracts in return for a "free" phone.

A recent big factor is that in the USA, the wireless carriers are sometimes part of the landline carriers. And the landline carriers provide home broadband. So many people have a combination of Verizon wireless, landline AND broadband AND TV service (via FiOS, their fiber network). AT&T and other carriers have similar offerings.

 

[jj48]

As always, impossible to predict the future. People always have a tendency to expect current trends to continue. The point is they might do, they might not. Personally I'm just looking forward to some great products.

 

[roadbloc]

Nokia has no cachet anymore. That brand is DONE.

Its too early to tell as of yet. As a massive Nokia fan I do have high hopes for them in the future. And for WP7, which is a massively underrated mobile OS.

 

[Fubar1977]

The whole iPhone Vs ALL OTHER PHONES thing is getting really tedious now.
Comparing 1 manufacturer (Apple) to WP7 or Android is almost pointless.

Samsung outsells Apple by a healthy margin but they have many different handsets at different prices, as do all the other Android/WP7 suppliers.

Comparing Apples 3 phone lineup with Samsungs 20+ models or Nokias 20+ models the iPhone is never going to compete in the overall numbers game long-term.

Apple will not have total market domination with a 3 phone lineup competing with dozens if not hundreds of other phones, the fact that its share is as large as it is now is impressive considering the huge competition they have.

iphone would do well to maintain a 3rd place position when competing with so many other keenly priced devices (and this is coming from a long time Apple fan). You just have to look at the numbers and be realistic.

 

[Bernard SG]

The terrible effects of drugs?

 

[McGiord]

Hopefully 8 will fix all the little nagging issues. Its a great platform if they fix the issues.

This is the major difference between iOS and the other mobile OS. For some reason the future Android releases are always going to be the next thing, and the hardware you bought is no longer supporting the next OS version.
Most of the times the former iOS devices can run the 'new' iOS for some years, some don't get the full thing, but anyway they can run it most of the times.

Yes, Apple has crippled some thing in the iOS releases and to certain extend real hardware limitations don't allow the new iOS releases to have all the features running.
Either way, they are forced by the market to make the features available or develop once they see those are needed.

And some of the crippled experienced we get comes from the carriers and not from Apple, Google, Microsoft, Samsung, Motorola, etc.

Apple and Google aim to serve the final consumer, while Apple always find the way to make a huge profit out of it, Google can live without making any money out of it.
Samsung and Motorola aim to serve the carriers.
Microsoft tend to serve just themselves.

As for the Apps being available on all the platforms, my impression is that they tend to be first released for iOS and then in the other platforms.

What killer Apps have been released first on Android or WP7?

If Apple manages to sell a low priced iPhone that also doesn't tie you to a data plan, they will for sure gain and maintain their share of the market. This is more carrier related than anything, as they will still get some revenue from the hardware, and the different digital stores they run.

 

[malman89]

USA is the only country where I see people so attached to one carrier. Is it because there are vast areas where some carriers have no coverage?

kdarling hit on some of the larger issues, but none of mine. I live in Chicago - every major provider is overall very good, with some minor differences. Same for my hometown just outside Detroit. I'm on Virgin Mobile, which is a monthly pay as you go/no contract option, which is still in the vast minority for the US.

It uses Sprint's national network, so it has fantastic reception. Data speeds are just 3G, but steady. I get 1200 minutes, unlimited text/data for $40/month. The value is second to none. A Verizon plan with 450 minutes, 1000 text, 2GB data is $79.99/month. The cheapest 'major' brand is T-Mobile, with something like 500 minutes + unlimited text + 2GB data being $69.99/month. Or $59.99/month with 200MB, which I might be able to get away with my average usage and reliance on Wifi.

So at this time I have no reason to drop my solid service that saves me $20-40/month compared to other companies.

Spotify was released a few weeks ago.

Good to know. Did a search on an app site and it wasn't coming up, but guess it was just that site.

 

[Rodimus Prime]

This is the major difference between iOS and the other mobile OS. For some reason the future Android releases are always going to be the next thing, and the hardware you bought is no longer supporting the next OS version.
Most of the times the former iOS devices can run the 'new' iOS for some years, some don't get the full thing, but anyway they can run it most of the times.

Yes, Apple has crippled some thing in the iOS releases and to certain extend real hardware limitations don't allow the new iOS releases to have all the features running.
Either way, they are forced by the market to make the features available or develop once they see those are needed.

Here is something to point out to you. Being on the newest version of Android is not as critical as being on the most recent version of iOS.
Reason being is most of the stuff is seperated from the OS.

To get the Google map updated well the market place handles that, Gmail- same thing, Google Market - yet again it is an App so it can be pushed out.

Also unlike Apple there is a lack of BS software blocks (siri only on 4S, no MMS for the first iPhone, voice controls block ect)

Now of the least of features when going between Android versions most of the features are hardware or developer related so to you the end user not going to be a huge differences between them or you will noticed. Now ICS added a lot of things and is a much bigger upgraded than Froyo to gingerbread.

 

[boss.king]

I have high hopes for Windows Phone. It's a great OS, highly unique and very fluid. I don't know if it will overtake iOS, but I do think it will become a strong platform soon, especially given its similarity to Windows 8. MSFT is doing a lot of thing right with this generation products.

(disclaimer: I'm not just saying all this because I'm getting a Windows Phone )

 

[Apple OC]

This is no different than Windows OS vs OSX ... you put Windows on a lot of cheap crappy computers and you win market share vs OSX that runs on one brand.

It is only a matter of time before there are more Windows phones than iPhones ... market share is not why I use an Apple Computer and Apple phone.

The experience trumps saving a few bucks for me.

 

[wordoflife]

I don't really care which one will be dominant then because I'll stil use what I like better.

Would like to see WP7 improve with some more features though because I do feel it's a bit lacking.

 

[ravenvii]

I would really like to see Windows Phone compete with Android because I do like the OS.

 

[malman89]

This is no different than Windows OS vs OSX ... you put Windows on a lot of cheap crappy computers and you win market share vs OSX that runs on one brand.

It is only a matter of time before there are more Windows phones than iPhones ... market share is not why I use an Apple Computer and Apple phone.

The experience trumps saving a few bucks for me.

Whoa there, fanboy. Microsoft doesn't allow manufacturers push WP on any piece of hardware. They have a minimum requirement for all hardware that is licensed. Just like they've set minimum standards for their upcoming Win8 tablets. Can't just throw it on any cheap hardware.

 

[thejadedmonkey]

Whoa there, fanboy. Microsoft doesn't allow manufacturers push WP on any piece of hardware. They have a minimum requirement for all hardware that is licensed. Just like they've set minimum standards for their upcoming Win8 tablets. Can't just throw it on any cheap hardware.

Minimum standards, yes. But look at those minimum standards compared to the iPhone or Galaxy SII. a 1ghz CPU? 256mb RAM? We're not exactly talking about speed demonds here.

However, the way that Windows Phone is archetectured, it's more like OS X than Windows 98. It's simply a fantastic OS, even on first gen hardware.

Give it a year, a legitimate marketing campaign with feature status, and have the OS on all sorts of hardware, and yes, it will catch up.